With today’s additional decline, the S&P is very close to correction territory— that is, down 10% from its recent high of just three weeks ago. The Nasdaq got there last week.
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) March 11, 2025
The longer this selloff continues, the more economists will worry about “negative wealth effects”… pic.twitter.com/AcI1JXCLLt
Wall Street ends in the red
And finally, Wall Street ended lower today, despite hopes of a peace deal beakthrough between Ukraine and Russia.
The S&P 500 index recovered from its earlier lows, before finishing 42 points down at 5,572 points, a fall of 0.75% today.
The Dow Jones industrial average lost 1.1%, while the Nasdaq closed slightly lower (down just 0.18%).
The mood improved slightly after Ontario’s premier said he had agreed to suspend the Canadian province’s 25% surcharge on exports of electricity to Michigan, New York and Minnesota. Trump subsequently said he was now looking at reducing tariffs on Canada.
Investors were also cheered that Ukraine said it was ready to accept an immediate 30-day ceasefire in the war with Russia.
A late development: Ontario has agreed to suspend its 25% electricity surchange on the US, following Donald Trump’s decision to double the tariffs on Canadian metal imports.
Premier Doug Ford has posted that he had a productive conversation with US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick about the economic relationship between the United States and Canada.
He adds:
Secretary Lutnick agreed to officially meet with Premier Ford in Washington on Thursday, March 13 alongside the United States Trade Representative to discuss a renewed USMCA ahead of the April 2 reciprocal tariff deadline. In response, Ontario agreed to suspend its 25 per cent surcharge on exports of electricity to Michigan, New York and Minnesota.
Please see a joint statement from United States Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and myself:
— Doug Ford (@fordnation) March 11, 2025
Today, United States Secretary of Commerce @howardlutnick and Premier of Ontario Doug Ford had a productive conversation about the economic relationship between the United States…
Wall Street’s fear index is on the rise today, as investors react to rising trade war anxiety:
The VIX, commonly referred to as Wall Street's fear index, nears 30 as the Canadian-US trading relationship deteriorates further ... and in a manner that many would have deemed highly unlikely if not unthinkable just a few months ago.#markets #tariffs pic.twitter.com/s1OzkKLE3G
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) March 11, 2025
Closing post
Time for a quick recap
Global stock markets are falling again after Donald Trump escalated his trade war with Canada.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 share index is now down 1.2% this session, a loss of 68 points, following a 2.7% tumble on Monday as ‘Trumpcession” fears gripped markets.
Those concerns have hardened today, after the US president announced he is doubling new tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% as a retaliation for the province of Ontario’s imposition of a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to several US states.
Ontario is not relent, though, with its premier, Doug Ford, telling MSNBC that Canada “will not back down” and arguing that Trump must take the blame for any recession.
Trump’s move knocked the Canadian dollar. Other currencies have been strengthening against the US currency though, with the pound and the euro both at their highest level since early November when Trump won re-election.
Shares have fallen across Europe, with the FTSE 100 index finishing at a seven-week closing low.
In the US, shares in American metal producers have risen but carmarkers have slid, as traders anticipate higher prices for steel and aluminium.
Former US Treasury secretary Larry Summers criticised Trump’s move, warning that:
It is a self-inflicted wound to the U.S. economy that we cannot afford, at a moment when recession risks are rising.
Our Politics Live blog has all the latest action:
European stock markets have also closed in the red, with Gemany’s DAX and the French CAC index both losing 1.3% today.
German consumer goods maker Henkel, which makes Persil detergent, fell 10% after forecasting subdued demand in the US this year.
Exporters including Daimler Truck (-5.3%), chemicals firm BASF (-4%) and Siemens (-2.3%) were also among the top fallers on the DAX.
FTSE 100 closes at seven-week closing low.
Trading is over in London for the day, leaving traders licking their wounds after another day of turmoil fuelled by Donald Trump.
The FTSE 100 share index has closed down 104 points at 8,495 points, its lowest closing level since 16 January.
The index has now shed over 4% of its value since the start of last week, when the FTSE 100 hit an alltime high over 8,900 points.
Stocks had already been lower before Trump jolted the markets by anouncing steeper tariffs on Canadian metal imports, escalating his trade dispute.
Airline Delta’s shares have dropped over 8% today, after it warned yesterday that consumers are pulling back on travel spending.
Delta said it now expects revenue to grow between 3% and 4%, less than half its earlier forecast of 7% to 9%. It slashed its forecast for adjusted earnings to 30 cents to 50 cents a share, from an earlier forecast range of 70 cents to $1 a share.
Shares in carmaker Stellantis — which has several manufacturing facilities in Canada — have fallen 5% today.
Stellantis’s stock was briefly suspended on the Milan stock exchange, as the fall triggered a circuit-breaker.
Ontario’s Doug Ford warns of ‘Trump recession,’
Ontario premier Doug Ford has taken a swipe at Donald Trump, saying the US president must take the blame if there is a recession.
Speaking on CNBC, after Trump announced new 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium, Ford says:
“If we go into a recession, it will be called the Trump recession.”
Ford also told CNBC that he would not “hesitate” to shut off electricity exports to the U.S. if Trump continues the trade war.
“That’s the last thing I want to do. I want to send more electricity down to the US, to our closest allies or our best neighbors in the world. I want to send more electricity.”
But Ford added:
“Is it a tool in our tool kit? One hundred percent, and as he continues to hurt Canadian families, Ontario families, I won’t hesitate to do that. That’s the last thing I want to do.”
Updated
Tariffs risk creating a triple whammy of inflation, growth and dented confidence, wans Gerard Lyons, chief economic strategist at Netwealth.
Lyons explains:
“When Trump was elected it was clear that his economic policies contained the good, the bad and the uncertain. The markets initially focused on the good - in terms of his tax and regulatory changes for the US economy. Now the focus is on the bad - namely tariffs.
The uncertainty around the execution of these adds to the uncertainty. Tariffs can have a triple whammy, adding to worries about inflation, growth and denting confidence.”
Starmer to avoid immediate counter-tariffs if Trump puts levies on UK steel
Keir Starmer has said he will not hit back with immediate counter-tariffs if Donald Trump imposes 25% levies on all steel and aluminium imports to the US on Wednesday.
The prime minister discussed the issue with Trump in a phone call on Monday and is prepared for the tariffs to be imposed at 4am UK time on 12 March.
Summers: this is the worst trade policy yet
Former US Teasury secretary Larry Summers has condemned Donald Trump’s decision to impose 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium imports.
Writing on X, Summers says:
The just announced tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum are the worst trade policy yet. Increasing the price of key inputs for the US manufacturing industries--who employ 10 million people--is what a U.S. adversary would do.
It is a self-inflicted wound to the U.S. economy that we cannot afford, at a moment when recession risks are rising.
The just announced tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum are the worst trade policy yet. Increasing the price of key inputs for the US manufacturing industries--who employ 10 million people--is what a U.S. adversary would do.
— Lawrence H. Summers (@LHSummers) March 11, 2025
It is a self-inflicted wound to the U.S. economy…
Yesterday, Summers warned that the chances of a US recession this year are “getting close to 50/50” due to conterproductive economic policies.
Updated
Aluminium prices jump
Price premiums for aluminium on the physical market in the United States have soared to a record high above $990 a metric ton, Reuters reports.
That’s a rapid reaction to Trump’s plan to double planned tariffs on Canadian metal to 50% tomorrow.
Trump’s reactionary trade policies have thwarted hopes of market recovery today, says Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB:
Hopes for a broad-based market recovery on Tuesday have been dashed. US markets had a mixed open, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones faltered when markets opened, while the Nasdaq initially rallied, led by some tech stocks including Tesla, Netflix and Meta.
However, news that President Trump has slapped a further 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from Canada has sapped market confidence. Tariffs on these imports are now at 50% and are seemingly in retaliation for Ontario’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on electricity exports to the US.
Doug Ford, the premier of Ontario who has angered Donald Trump by imposing tariffs on electricity exports to the US, is refusing to yield.
Ford says he, and Canada, will not back down until Trump’s tariffs on Canadian imports “are gone for good”.
I’ll be speaking with @LesliePicker and @carlquintanilla on @CNBC at 11:05 a.m., making clear that Ontario and Canada will not back down until President Trump’s tariffs are gone for good.
— Doug Ford (@fordnation) March 11, 2025
Shares in US automakers are falling.
Ford Motor’s shares are down 3.5%, while General Motors have dropped by 4%.
Traders are calculating that high metal tariffs is going to drive up costs for the American industrial sector, eating into their profits.
Canadian dollar weakens
Canada’s currency has been knocked by Trump’s decision to hit the country’s steel and aluminium with 50% tariffs.
The ‘loonie’, as the Canadian dollar is known, has dropped to 1.4508 to the US dollar, down from 1.4435 last night – a day before the Bank of Canada is expected to cut interest rates.
Kyle Chapman, FX markets analyst at Ballinger Group, says:
“Mark Carney is getting quite the introduction to the PM role in a Trump world. USD/CAD has surged after Trump has just announced on social media that he will increase steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% and declare a ‘national emergency on electricity’, until Canada removes its trade barriers on dairy and electricity.
The tariff rollercoaster just does not stop for the Loonie. Whether these tariffs go into effect, and if they do, how long they persist before the next delay, is totally beyond predictability. What we can be certain about either way, however, is that Canada is going to suffer. I’d argue that the Canadian economy doesn’t even need the tariffs to weaken; the unrelenting uncertainty is enough.
Ordinarily this would be the time for policymakers to step back and assess the outlook, but the Bank of Canada cannot justify anything other than a rate cut tomorrow, even if only for a bit of insurance.
Updated
Shares in American metal-makers are rallying.
US Steel are up 2.2%, while Steel Dynamics have risen 1.8%.
US industrial corporation Alcoa Corporation, one of the world’s largest producers of aluminium, are up 1.3%, and Century Aluminum have jumped over 7%.
Traders will be calculating that punishingly steep new tariffs on Canadian metals imports will lead to higher sales for US producers, especially as all steel and aluminium imports are expected to incur 25% tariffs from tomorrow morning.
It could also allow American firms to raise their own prices, boosting profit margins, and still remain more competitive than imported rival goods.
Stocks in London are deeper in the red, after Trump’s decision to whack 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium.
The FTSE 100 index has lost just over 1%, or 90 points, to 8,507 points, its lowest level since 27 January, as investors fret about a global trade war hurting economic growth.
Markets slide after Trump's steel tariff bombshell
Wall Street’s early recovery has been wiped out by Donald Trump’s decision to double the tariff on Canadian steel and aluminium, to 50%.
The S&P 500 index has sunk by 0.6%, or 33 points, to 5,581 points.
The much-storied Dow Jones industrial average, which contains 30 large US companies, has slumped by 1%.
After the worst day of 2025 (so far) on Wall Street yesterday, there’s little respite for investors today.
Updated
Trump announces 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium
Newflash: Donald Trump has doubled the tariff he is imposing on Canadian steel and aluminium imports to the US, to 50%.
In a shock move that has jolted markets, the US president says he is doubling the tariff, which had previously been inked in at 25%, in retaliation for Ontario adding a 25% surcharge on electricity it sends to US states (which was in retaliation to earlier Trump tariffs).
The new tariffs will come in tomorrow – when the US was already expected to bring in 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from other countries.
Posting on his Truth Social site, Trump says:
Based on Ontario, Canada, placing a 25% Tariff on “Electricity” coming into the United States, I have instructed my Secretary of Commerce to ad [sic] an ADDITIONAL 25% Tariff, to 50%, on all STEEL and ALUMINUM COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES FROM CANADA, ONE OF THE HIGHEST TARIFFING NATIONS ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD. This will go into effect TOMORROW MORNING, March 12th.
Also, Canada must immediately drop their Anti-American Farmer Tariff of 250% to 390% on various U.S. dairy products, which has long been considered outrageous.
Trump also reveals that he will soon declare “a National Emergency on Electricity within the threatened area”, to allow the US to quicly act and “alleviate this abusive threat from Canada”.
Trump also threatens higher tariffs on Canadian car imports, saying:
If other egregious, long time Tariffs are not likewise dropped by Canada, I will substantially increase, on April 2nd, the Tariffs on Cars coming into the U.S. which will, essentially, permanently shut down the automobile manufacturing business in Canada. Those cars can easily be made in the USA!
Trump rounds off his post by talking about making Canada “our cherished Fifty First State” – something the next Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, has insisted will never happen.
Updated
Just in: There were more job vacancies at US companies than expected last month.
The number of job openings was little changed in February at 7.7 million in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported.
That’s a little higher than the 7.6m which had been expected.
Stocks have fallen more sharply in London too.
The FTSE 100 index is now down 71 points, or 0.8%, at 8528 points, its lowest level since 4 February.
European stocks are heading south – the Stoxx 600 index, which tracks stocks across the region, is now down 1% at its lowest since 6 February.
Wall Street opens lower amid slowdown worries
Wall Street has opened gingerly, after its worst day of the year yesterday.
Stocks are mixed… the Dow Jones industrial average has dropped by 68 points, or 0.15%, at the start of trading to 41,843 points.
The broader S&P 500 index has slipped by 0.18%, while the tech-focused Nasdaq was down just 0.1% in early trading, as investors continue to ponder the risks of a US recession soon.
David Morrison, senior market analyst at fintech and financial services provider Trade Nation, says:
Yesterday’s stock market sell-off followed on from last week’s negative performance. Yet little has really changed. Non-Farm Payrolls were fine, and most economic data points are holding up. Retail Sales were weak, and confidence indicators are a concern.
But for now, the sell-off looks like an overdue correction which could reset some overvalued stocks and restore some sanity to the market. That’s not to say there aren’t dangers. But it could also prove to be a short-term opportunity should investors now broaden out their portfolios by including some of the overlooked S&P constituents, having reduced their ‘Mag Seven’ exposure.
As far as potential catalysts for the next move, today sees the latest update on JOLTS Job Openings, with CPI tomorrow and PPI on Thursday. Aside from that, President Trump’s tariff threats rumble on, and should continue to influence sentiment
Updated
BIS warns that Trump tariff uncertainty is bad for economies
Central bank body, the Bank for International Settlements, has warned today that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs led to unusually high uncertainty and market volatility.
But despite that impact, BIS still expects the world’s economy to avoid recession
Hyun Song Shin, economic adviser and head of research at the BIS, sasy:
“Tariffs wrapped in uncertainty are going to be doubly unhelpful.”
In its latest global report, realeased today, BIS warned that markets have been “caught in cross-currents” in the last quarter.
It explains:
Long-term government bond yields in core markets rose despite easing monetary policies, tightening financial conditions.
In contrast, corporate credit remained buoyant, equity valuations stayed elevated and US dollar appreciation halted. This resulted in easier conditions despite the uncertain outlook, which seemed not fully priced in financial markets.
Sentiment towards emerging market economies (EMEs) remained subdued, as investors struggled to ascertain their outlook amid diverse domestic conditions and global policy uncertainty.
New CEO at Nissan after Honda merger collapse
Over in Japan, carmaker Nissan has replaced its CEO, Makoto Uchida, with chief planning officer Ivan Espinos as it tries to revive its fortunes.
Uchida’s departure has been announced a month after Nissan’s planned merger with Honda collapsed, leaving the company facing an uncertain future.
Nissan says it is “introducing a significantly renewed leadership line-up to achieve the company’s short- and mid-term objectives while positioning it for long-term growth.”
Among other changes, Nissan has also appointed a new chief technology officer, Eiichi Akashi, and promoted Teiji Hirata to the role of chief monozukuri officer (responsible for Manufacturing and Supply Chain Management).
US department store chain Kohl’s has disappointed investors with a weak outlook for 2025, after reporting a drop in sales at the end of last year.
In its latest financial results, Kohl’s predicted that like-for-like sales will fall by between 4% and 6% this year.
It also reported a 6.7% decline in comparable sales in the three months to 1 February 2025.
Ashley Buchanan, Kohl’s chief executive officer, says the company is taking action to improve:
“We have identified key areas of focus and are taking action in 2025 to reposition Kohl’s for future success.
Our customers expect great product, great value, and a great experience from Kohl’s. I am confident that the areas we identified will deliver on what customers want and expect from Kohl’s.
Kohl’s shares have fallen 15% in pre-market trading.
The pound has just hit a new four-month high against the US dollar.
Sterling has just touched $1.2951, its highest level since 8 November, shortly after the US election.
Trump to meet Corporate America today
Donald Trump is expected to meet the leaders of some of America’s biggest companies later today, a day after many suffered a slide in their share prices.
Trump is scheduled to attend a regular meeting of the Business Roundtable in Washington, an influential group of CEOs.
Bloomberg reports:
US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with top business executives on Tuesday, as industry leaders grapple with uncertainty about wide-ranging tariffs and a market selloff driven by recession fears.
The meeting with the Washington-based Business Roundtable is set to include chief executives from around the country, including the bosses of Wall Street lending giants, according to people familiar with the matter.
Updated
Anxiety over the US economy pushed the US dollar down to a five-month low against a basket of major currencies today.
The dollar index touched its lowest level since mid-October, down 0.5% to 103.329.
Brad Bechtel of Jefferies told clients:
We know the drill here, US growth concerns take us down to 100 and inflation concerns bring us back to 108.
Citigroup downgrades its stance on U.S. stocks after bearish signals are triggered
In a blow to Wall Street, Citigroup has downgraded its stance on U.S. stocks.
Citigroup has cut its rating on U.S. equities to neutral from an overweight, or bullish, stance since October 2023.
In our call of the day, a team of Citi strategists led by Dirk Willer said it’s now clear that “U.S. exceptionalism is at least pausing.” Alongside that shift, they upgraded China stocks to overweight, which in balance, now leaves their overall global equity view at neutral.
Willer and the team explained that two of their bearish signals have now been triggered for U.S. stocks. One was the S&P 500 breaking its 200-day moving average “at a time when the market is/has been extended.”
The second signal was triggered when four of seven “generals,” referring to the major technology stocks that have been leading the market higher for the past two years, fade for at least five days, said the strategists.
Updated
Yesterday’s sell-off is a wake-up call that markets are struggling with policy uncertainty, recession fears, and stretched valuations in tech, reports Kate Leaman, chief market analyst at AvaTrade, adding:
Investors will be watching for Trump’s next moves on trade and economic policy – clarity could calm markets, while more ambiguity may fuel volatility. Right now, it’s all about sentiment – and the mood on Wall Street has turned decisively bearish.”
Gold, a classic safe-haven, is a little higher today.
The spot price of gold is up 0.8% at $2,912.41 per ounce, towards the record highs set in February.
Ruben Ferreira, head of Portuguese Operations at investment platform FlowCommunity, says gold is being lifted by concerns over the US economy.
Gold prices rebounded on Tuesday, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and increased safe-haven demand. The shift in sentiment came amid growing concerns about a potential economic slowdown in the U.S., especially after President Donald Trump stated that the economy was going through a “transitional period”. Trump didn’t rule out that his policies could cause a recession, affecting market sentiment.
At the same time, recent data showed a potential slowdown in the labor market, boosting demand for safe-haven assets. Additionally, the market is awaiting inflation data including the CPI and PPI. Softer-than-expected figures could push the Fed to adopt a more dovish tone and consider cutting interest rates sooner, which could support gold.
Here’s our news story about the pick-up in the euro, and European markets, today:
Wall Street is set to edge a little higher, after its biggest selloff of the year so far.
Reuters has the details:
Dow E-minis were up 134 points, or 0.32%, S&P 500 E-minis were up 23 points, or 0.41% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 105.75 points, or 0.54%.
Futures tracking the domestically focused Russell 2000 index rose 1%.
Trump’s “stop-go policies” will hit the US within a horizon of three quarters, predicts economics professor Professor Costas Milas, of the University of Liverpool’s. Management School.
He tells us:
There is no doubt that the US economy will be hit by Trump’s stop-go policies that create and sustain uncertainty. The chart below plots US growth together with a simple weighted average of (a) US economic policy growth (from: https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html) and (b) trade policy uncertainty growth
The two variables move in opposite direction (their contemporaneous correlation is -0.20) with US uncertainty hitting US growth most some three quarters later.
All these, without taking into account the inflationary impact of Trump’s tariffs which, in turn, will hit aggregate US demand further...
Asset manager aberdeeen reckons there’s an increased risk that Donald Trump imposes “aggressive” trade policies that cause significant disruption.
Following an update to their “Trump scenarios”, Lizzy Galbraith, political economist at aberdeen, explains:
“President Trump’s rapid pace of executive actions, especially on trade, has led us to update our scenarios in several important respects.
We now see the US weighted average tariff rate going higher still to 9.1%. We assume a reciprocal tariff to be implemented, albeit with various carve-outs; higher blanket tariffs on China; and more sector-specific tariffs, including on the EU, Canada and Mexico.
Moreover, the risk of an even more disruptive trade policy has increased. Our ‘Trump unleashed’ scenario assumes reciprocal tariffs are consistently applied and include non-tariff trade barriers, while USMCA fully breaks down.
This results in the US average tariff reaching 22%, above 1930s peaks.
Here are aberdeen’s Trump scenarios:
Trump 2.0 (50% probability) remains our base case, in which Trump acts on his policy priorities but stops short of fully implementing campaign pledges. We now expect more in the way of tariffs, pushing the US average weighted tariff higher.
Trump unleashed (35% probability) sees the president and Congress deliver more aggressive policy changes. Non-tariff elements of the reciprocal tariff policy are emphasised making concessions harder to achieve.
Trump delivers for markets (15% probability) involves the president focussing on the market-friendly aspects of his agenda, with many of the more aggressive announcements on trade and foreign policy proving to be just negotiating postures.
US small business confidence drops
Newsflash: optimism among US small businesses fell last month, as economic uncertainty hurts American firms.
The Small Business Optimism Index, produced by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) fell by 2.1 points in February to 100.7, the second monthly drop in a row.
It’s the fourth month running that optimism has been above the long-term average, but it’s also 4.4 points below its most recent peak of 105.1 in December.
NFIB’s Uncertainty Index rose four points to 104 – the second highest recorded reading.
NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg says:
Uncertainty is high and rising on Main Street and for many reasons. Those small business owners expecting better business conditions in the next six months dropped and the percent viewing the current period as a good time to expand fell, but remains well above where it was in the fall.
Inflation remains a major problem, ranked second behind the top problem, labor quality.
The report also found that fewer business owners expect the economy to improve, and that many are raising prices – which will fuel concerns that inflationary pressures are building.
The NFIB small business sentiment survey is traditionally a Republican leaning survey, so this could be an interesting signal of how Trump’s base are feeling.
Here’s the details:
The net percent of owners expecting the economy to improve fell ten points from January to a net 37% (seasonally adjusted).
Twelve percent (seasonally adjusted) of owners reported that it is a good time to expand their business, down five points from January. This is the largest monthly decrease since April 2020.
Sixteen percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, down two points from January and now just below labor quality as the top issue. The last time it was this low was in October 2021.
The net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose 10 points from January to a net 32% (seasonally adjusted). This is the largest monthly increase since April 2021, and the third highest in the survey’s history. The percent of owners lowering their prices is 10 points lower than it was one year ago.
Seasonally adjusted, a net 29% plan price hikes in the next three months, up three points from January and the highest reading in 11 months.
Labor costs reported as the single most important problem for business owners rose three points to 12%, only one point below the survey’s highest reading of 13% reached in December 2021. The last time labor costs ranked this high was in February 2023.
The frequency of reports of positive profit trends was a net negative 24% (seasonally adjusted), up one point from January.
Updated
New CEO at the FT
The parent of the Financial Times has appointed commercial boss Jon Slade as the paper’s new chief executive.
Slade, who has worked at the newspaper for more than 20 years and joined the management board in 2014, currently holds the title of chief commercial officer.
Slade will take over from John Ridding, who is to step down at the end of June after leading the newspaper group for almost two decades.
His current remit covers responsibility for three quarters of FT Group’s annual revenues.
The group’s global profits rose to almost £30m in 2023, according to the most recent publicly available figures, with revenues topping half a billion pounds for the first time.
However, in the UK, pre-tax profits fell from £6.8m to £3.9m year-on-year.
“Jon’s substantial experience has given him a deep understanding of the FT Group, and areas where there is rich territory for future growth,” said Naotoshi Okada, chairman and group chief executive of parent company Nikkei.
Ridding will remain with Japanese media group Nikkei, which pipped Germany’s Axel Springer with an 11th-hour £844m bid to buy the FT in 2015, as a special adviser reporting to Okada.
Ridding, who has been at the FT for 35 years, is also taking the non-executive role of honorary FT chairman.
The FT’s total subscriber base increased to a new record high of 1.4m in 2023, boosted by a 17% rise in paying digital readers.
Growth was primarily driven by corporate subscriptions, which helped offset a 7% decline in print readership.
More than two-thirds of revenues come from digital subscriptions, while other revenue streams include advertising, events at FT Live, research, circulation and its consultancy FT Strategies.
FT’s digital and subscription-based transformation to a global paying audience of 2.9 million people and revenues of £500m for the first time in 2023.
More than two-thirds of its revenues now come from digital subscriptions (both consumer and B2B) while other revenue streams include advertising, events at FT Live, research, circulation and consultancy FT Strategies.
Yesterday was a tough one for Tesla – shares in the electric carmaker tumbled by 15%, it’s biggest one-day drop since 2020.
Its value has now halved since mid-December, on concerns that some buyers may be put off the brand by Elon Musk’s activities.
But it has won one new customer – DJ Trump of Pennsylvania Avenue.
The US president announced last night he will buy a “brand new Tesla” today as “a show of confidence and support” for Musk, who he calls a “truly great American”.
BREAKING: Trump says he will buy a Tesla, $TSLA, tomorrow: pic.twitter.com/2fJEspqSAg
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) March 11, 2025
With the dollar ailing, how high could the euro go?
Vasileios Gkionakis, senior economist and strategist at Aviva Investors, suggests the euro could hit $1.15 (up from $1.09 today) “much sooner” than the end of this year.
Gkionakis cites three factors:
The unwinding of the Trump/tariff trade.
A seismic shift in Germany’s fiscal stance and EU-wide policy changes.
The ECB’s “hawkish cut” [last week] signaling a shift in monetary conditions.
And explains:
The first one remains an open question, and my belief has always been that for EUR gains to sustain and extend beyond current levels, the EU would have to avoid a full trade war with the US. If likely tariffs are targeted and/or subject to negotiations (by the EU offering to reduce some of the duties it imposes on US products and/or commit to some increase in the volumes of specific US goods that it imports) then this condition would be satisfied; nonetheless, it remains to be seen.
On the second one – as I have written previously – I view it as a monumental shift that boosts growth expectations as well as term premia (hence, higher EA yields) but also sets the second precedent (following NGEU) that when push comes to shove, Europe gets its act together and cracks on with structural changes: in sum, this is a sentiment/confidence shift and outright currency-positive.
Lastly, the ECB’s acknowledgement that monetary policy is now meaningfully less restrictive together with President Lagarde’s lack of confidence to signal commitment to further cuts has resulted in (a long overdue…) rerating higher of short rate expectations.
UBS’s ‘bull case’ for the US economy (see earlier post) was partly based on a scenario where the US corporate tax rate is cut to 20% or lower.
Bloomberg are reporting that pressure is mounting on Donald Trump to speed up his main proposal for juicing the economy: a sweeping tax bill.
They say:
Trump’s team is starting to warn of short-term pain as they pursue a drastic overhaul of trade and public spending. Tax cuts, which put more cash in consumer pocketbooks, could help soften the blow. Allies would ideally like to pass a bill by July, though there are plenty of hurdles.
Pressure mounts on Trump to speed up his biggest economic proposal — a sweeping tax measure — after his tariff policies send markets into a tailspin https://t.co/94x48TXjpK
— Bloomberg (@business) March 11, 2025
Updated
UK housebuilder Persimmon grows profits
UK housebuilders are giving the London stock market some support this morning.
Shares in Persimmon, one of Britain’s biggest housebuilders, rose after it reported better-than-expected profits for 2024.
The shares climbed by 4.4%, but are still down by 11% over the past year.
The builder’s underlying profit before tax increased by 10% to £395m last year, as it completed 7% more homes than in 2023, a total of 10,664. The average selling price rose by 5% to £268,499, roughly £13,000 higher than in 2023. Persimmon took a one-off charge of £34.4m to pay for removing combustible cladding and other fire-related remediation work.
In the current order book, prices are up by 3% compared to last year and sales rates have improved, which means its order book for private homes is 27% ahead of last year at £1.15bn.
Persimmon, which owns the upmarket Charles Church brand, along with brick, tile and timber frame factories, is targeting up to 11,500 completions this year, including more affordable homes. Last year, it delivered 1,589 new homes to housing associations, down from 2,241 the year before, at an average selling price of £161,916, up 6% year-on-year.
Persimmon has been acquiring land worth £1.55bn over the last three years. It has invested in its sales and marketing platforms, resulting in a 34% increase in website visitors and 26% growth in enquiries over last year.
Along with seven other major housebuilders, Persimmon is under investigation by Britain’s competition watchdog for suspected breaches of competition law, namely exchanging competitively sensitive information. That investigation has been extended until May.
Richard Hunter, head of markets at interactive investor, said:
“It is perhaps a little early to be calling a full recovery, but it is also fair to say that some of the previous headwinds are showing signs of turning into tailwinds.
While affordability has been and could yet continue to be an issue, the recent interest rate cut clearly sparked the mortgage market into life, especially for first-time buyers where Persimmon has had a traditionally higher exposure. The imminent changes to stamp duty could also have brought some buying activity forward, although it remains to be seen whether that impacts the numbers on the remainder of the year.”
The sell-off that swept markets yesterday, and onto Asia-Pacific trading floors earlier today, appears to be abating.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index is now flat, while the UK’s FTSE 100 index is only down 7 points (-0.08%).
Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says:
“UK markets have managed to find some footing after yesterday’s global market selloff, with the FTSE 100 broadly flat at the open.
Markets are jittery and volatility seems like the only certainty while the White House pushes hard to usher in a new era, seemingly happy for stock markets to be collateral damage.
UBS raises odds of a US stagflationary or cyclical downturn
Swiss bank UBS has warned there is an increased risk that the US economy suffers a downturn, hitting stock markets.
UBS has updated its House View scenario, and now sees a 30% chance of a “stagflationary or cyclical downturn” in the US, up from 25% at the end of last month.
The chances of an upside scenario, in which the US enjoys strong growth and equity makets rally, has been trimmed to 20%, from 25%.
The base case, in which there is growth despite “an aggressive tariff policy,” remains a 50% prospect.
Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, explains:
“In our base case, to which we attach a 50% probability, US economic growth is likely to moderate compared with last year but remain positive.
While we treat the economic data and the words of the Trump administration seriously, enacting and sustaining policies which contribute to a potentially protracted slowdown in the US economy in hope of better growth or economic dynamics in the medium to long term would require a shift from an approach which has so far focused on achieving quick success.”
Euro rises over $1.09
The euro has climbed over $1.09 against the US dollar, for the first time since Donald Trump’s election victory.
The single currency is up three-quarters of a cent against the dollar to $1.0905, its highest since 6 November, the day after the US presidential election.
The euro has been on a tear in recent weeks.
At the start of February, it slipped to near-parity with the US dollar on fears that Donald Trump would impose painful tariffs on European imports.
But the euro has surged since European leaders backed a huge increase in defence spending which could also spur growth, and support domestic economies.
Euro/Dolar 1.09'u gördü... pic.twitter.com/xRbz3SCSg5
— Dr. Barış Esen (@barisesen) March 11, 2025
A European spending splurge could take some pressure off the European Central Bank to keep cutting interest rates.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, explains:
In the traditional currency space, the USD selloff has somewhat slowed yesterday, but the dovish shift in Fed expectations and hawkish shift in other central bank expectations - like the European Central Bank (ECB) expectations for example on the thinking that the ECB must slow down rate cuts to temper the impact of massive government spending - continue to keep the outlook for the US dollar negative compared to major peers.
Updated
European markets have opened a little higher, with Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC both up 0.4% in early trading.
FTSE 100 opens in the red
London’s stock market is open, and stocks are a little lower.
The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares has dropped by 21 points, or 0.25% – a small drop.
Travel and hospitality stocks are leading the fallers, with British Airways owner IAG down 5%, budget airline easyJet off 2.6%, and InterContinental Hotels losing 2.1%.
Across other Asia-Pacific markets, South Korea’s KOSPI index is down 1.1% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 has lost 0.9%.
Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, reports:
While the panic button hasn’t been hit just yet, market sentiment remains fragile as Wall Street’s once-bullish bets are being tempered by escalating fears that aggressive tariffs and sweeping government spending cuts could derail U.S. growth.
China’s stock market has shrugged off US recession fears.
The CSI 300 index dropped 1% at the start of trading, as Asia-Pacific stock markets wobbled.
But stocks have recovered, pushing the CSI 300 – which includes the largest companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges – up by 0.3% by the close.
Updated
Nikkei closes in the red
Japan’s stock market has fallen today, although it’s recovered somewhat from an early tumble.
The Nikkei index has closed down 0.65% today, having earlier hit a six-month low as US recession fears spooked traders in Tokyo. At one stage, it was down 1.7%.
The Japanese yen has hit a five-month high against the US dollar, as investors look for a safe place for their money.
With fears of a tariff-driven slowdown in US economic growth rattling the dollar, and US stocks, the yen hit ¥146.55 per dollar, its strongest since last October.
The dollar is down more than 7% from a six-month high – ¥158.8 – it hit in January against the yen, suggesting the US currrency is losing some of its safe-haven appeal.
Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone, explains:
“Historically, the dollar outperforms when we get a solid rise in volatility, but when the U.S. economy and U.S. equitymarket are the central point of concern, this is now limiting the attractiveness of the dollar.”
US dollar near four-month low
Fears over the economic impact of the Trump White House have hurt the US dollar in recent sessions.
This morning, the dollar is down 0.2% against a basket of major currencies, close to the four-month low it hit last Friday.
The greenback, like the US stock market, has lost all the gains it enjoyed after Trump’s election win.
Initially, investors had bet that Trumpian policies such as tariffs and a clampdown on immigration would be inflationary, leading to higher US interest rates and thus a stronger currrency.
Now, though, attention has turned to risks that growth will be sapped, requiring lower interest rates to stimulate the economy…..
Introduction: Growth fears grip markets
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
The Trump Bump has turned into the Trump Slump, as rising fears of a US recession rocked the markets yesterday.
Monday was a dark day on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 fell 2.7%, the Dow Jones dropped 2%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 4%, with losses among the major tech companies.
Investors dashed for save-haven assets after the US president refused to rule out that his policies would lead to a recession, or rising prices.
Instead, he told Fox News in an interview aired last weekend that there would be a “period of transition.”…..
The slide means that the jump in asset prices after Trump’s election win last November has been wiped out.
Hopes of a ‘Trump put’ have also taken a knock. This is the hope that the US president might take action to prop up share prices if the markets suffered a sharp decline.
[UPDATED: a put option gives you the opportunity to sell an asset at a particular price].
Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, explains:
I think it’s pretty clear, at this stage, that the idea of a ‘Trump put’ is stone dead – or, at least, that the strike price of said put is much, much lower than had previously been envisaged. Trump’s weekend refusal to rule out a recession this year is just the latest evidence of this, coupled with both Treasury Secretary Bessent, and Commerce Secretary Lutnick, having both ‘rolled the pitch’ for a slowdown in recent weeks.
The Admin are, for now, doubling down on the idea of ‘short term pain, for long term gain’, in the hope that macro headwinds can be blamed on the Biden Admin, and that Trump & Co will be able to claim credit for the economic, and market, turnaround that would likely follow. While I see how this might be politically expedient, juicing the economy just in time for the midterms, it’s rather economically incoherent, particularly for an Oval Office which claims to be more focused on Main Street, than on Wall Street.
After its worst day of the year, Wall Street is expected to open a little higher when trading resumes at 1.30pm GMT.
That might bring some calm to Europe’s markets, after a choppy session in Asia-Pacific markets overnight.
Investors are also poised for the latest US economic data, covering small business confidence and job vacancies, for a healthcheck on American growth.
The agenda
10am GMT: US NFIB index of small business optimism
2pm: JOLTS survey of job openings at US companies
Updated
