Tensions between Hezbollah and Israel are escalating, raising fears of a wider regional conflict, as reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). The increasing spread of infectious diseases in Gaza is a pressing concern, with overcrowded hospitals and severe shortages of medical supplies. The UNICEF spokesperson highlighted the urgent need for more aid to be delivered to Gaza.
The Global Institute for Strategic Research director, interviewed from Doha, provided insights into the growing tensions. It was suggested that Hezbollah's strategy had been to engage in a low-intensity conflict with Israel to divert their attention away from Gaza. However, the situation has become increasingly dangerous, with Israel acting nervously and disproportionately, resulting in mounting casualties in south Lebanon.
Despite the escalating attacks, the director explained that both Hezbollah and Iran, Hezbollah's main backer, do not harbor intentions of plunging into a full-scale war with Israel. They are mindful of Lebanon's delicate political and economic situation, which may collapse if conflict intensifies. Additionally, Hezbollah has maintained a level of normalization with Israel, particularly concerning maritime borders for gas exploitation. Lastly, Hezbollah has somewhat lost popular support due to its involvement in the Syrian conflict.
The Red Sea has also witnessed rising tensions, with Iran-backed Houthis destabilizing the region through attacks on shipping. The US announced the establishment of a new maritime force, potentially heightening tensions and creating yet another flashpoint with Iran. The director emphasized that Iran does not seek conflict with the United States, but rather, it is Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's desire to embroil the US in a conflict with Iran.
The US is set to send Secretary of State Antony Blinken to the region in the coming week. While deterrence has been a priority in past visits, it is unlikely to yield the desired results. The US has lost credibility in promoting a rule-based order due to its handling of the Gaza situation. Forcing actions in the region may lead to unintended consequences, potentially pushing the US into a war that is not in its best interest, particularly during an election year.
In conclusion, tensions between Hezbollah and Israel, as well as the deteriorating situation in Gaza, are contributing to a volatile regional landscape. The concern for the spread of infectious diseases in Gaza is heightened, and the need for aid is urgent. The situation in the Red Sea further adds to the complexity, with the US establishing a new maritime force. As Secretary Blinken prepares to visit the region, the focus will likely be on alleviating tensions and avoiding any escalation into a broader conflict.
