KEY POINTS
- Phil made his winter prediction Sunday to a large crowd in Pennsylvania
- The NOAA's ranking of Groundhog Day prognosticators puts Phil in third-to-last spot
- Staten Island Chuck of New York has a much higher accuracy rate than Phil
Groundhog Day 2025 has just passed, and all eyes were on Punxsutawney Phil, whose winter predictions came through after he was pulled out of his warm burrow at the Gobbler's Knob in Pennsylvania Sunday morning.
Legend has it that if Phil sees his shadow, the United States and Canada have six more weeks of winter before spring comes in. On Sunday morning, Phil saw his shadow, but notably, weather conditions don't always follow the famous groundhog's timetable, especially with climate change.
What is Groundhog Day?
Groundhog Day falls every February 2nd and is said to have started in 1886 in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. The tradition has since been adopted by Canada. Other states have their own groundhogs, but over the years, the most famous weather forecaster of them all was Pennsylvania's Phil.
Thousands of people try to get a glimpse of Phil's weather predictions in person, and millions more tune in online to see if winter is due to end earlier or if it will linger on before the first spring flowers bloom.
Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow and predicts six more weeks of winter! #GroundhogDay pic.twitter.com/eevOY4XuIk
— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) February 2, 2025
How Accurate is Phil?
While Phil's celebrity status is indeed on a different level than other groundhog forecasters around the country and in Canada due to his state's first-mover status, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently revealed shocking data regarding the accuracy of Phil and other prognosticators in the last 20 years.
Of 19 Groundhog Day forecasters ranked by the agency, Phil is way down in the ranks at No. 17, logging only 35% accuracy in winter predictions since 2005.
The Top 5 accurate rankers are as follows:
- Staten Island Chuck of New York – 1st Place (85%)
- General Beauregard Lee of Georgia – 2nd Place (80%)
- Lander Lil of Wyoming (not a groundhog but a prairie dog statue) – 3rd Place (75%)
- Concord Charlie of West Virginia (presumed groundhog, but never been seen) – 4th Place (65%)
- Gertie the Groundhog of Illinois – 5th Place (65%)
The last forecaster in the ranks is Mojave Max of Nevada, a tortoise, whose accuracy was set at 25%.
