If Scotland had forgotten about the expectation that surrounds the squad as they prepare to welcome Wales to Edinburgh this weekend, Adam Jones was keen to remind them.
“There's no pressure on us, there's pressure on Scotland,” said the Wales scrum coach. “This is probably one of the best sides they've ever had, if not the best side they've ever had. They'll be expecting to beat us pretty comfortably at home, against a team that's lost 15 times [in a row]. We haven't put much of an underdog tag on us, but results probably dictate we are.”
Jones certainly isn’t wrong that Wales are considered underdogs as they head to Murrayfield on Saturday afternoon. Bookies have Scotland as 1/10 favourites, with the spread set at 17 points, yet this Scottish side have never appeared totally comfortable when cast in the role of the more fancied side and have a habit of coming up short in the truly big moments.
The World Cup pool-stage exits in 2019, where they lost to Japan, and 2023, where they were handily beaten by both South Africa and Ireland, go down as disappointments on the biggest stage. A 23-14 lead over New Zealand in the final quarter in a Test in 2022 that could have led to a first-ever victory over the All Blacks in 120 years of trying was also squandered.
Then the scars of 12 months ago still prickle, when they began the Six Nations by ending a Cardiff hoodoo that stretched back more than 20 years, followed it up with an unfortunate – and controversial – defeat to France before continuing their newfound dominance over England to seemingly put themselves back in title contention heading into the second fallow week. From there, they headed to Rome expecting a relatively comfortable win over Italy that would give them at least a shot at the trophy in the final round - only to lose their composure and slip to a shock loss.
The now-standard defeat to Ireland followed on Super Saturday and that ensured a fourth-place finish in the final reckoning. Barring a shock set of results over the final two weekends of this year’s championship, Scotland’s record of never finishing in the top two since the Five Nations became Six a quarter of a century ago looks set to continue.
For all the good that he has done, and, make no mistake, his tenure has been a vast improvement on what came before, Scotland’s Six Nations results under Gregor Townsend ultimately consist of two third places, four fourth places and a fifth. It has led to grumblings that ‘Toonie’ has taken this team as far as he can.
“I do really like Gregor’s mindset when it comes to how to play the game,” ex-Scotland international Ruaridh Jackson told The Telegraph last month. “But he has had eight years now, a couple of World Cup cycles, and we seem to have really plateaued in recent years. In some respects, I think probably for both camps, as well for him to reinvigorate himself, maybe a change is the right thing.”
Townsend’s contract runs until after the 2026 Six Nations but by that point, there will be little more than a year to go until the World Cup and it would be a brave move to overhaul the coaching staff then.
If Scottish Rugby do want to make a move, with former Ireland head honcho David Nucifora now in the building as performance director, then doing so sooner rather than later makes sense. The time to act would be now, with half of the World Cup cycle still remaining, and Finn Russell still in his prime. By far the most likely scenario is Townsend going through to the end of the 2027 World Cup – and then calling it quits after a decade at the helm – but the delicate situation certainly adds pressure to the final two rounds of this year’s Six Nations.
It’s why Saturday’s clash with Wales may well be the single most important game of the Townsend era. Scotland simply cannot countenance defeat and their head coach may not be able to survive it. For all that Wales showed some long-awaited sparks of life in their plucky defeat to Ireland last time out under interim coach Matt Sherratt, losing at home to a side without a Test win in their last 15 games is unfathomable for the Scots. Those early green shoots of recovery make the Welsh a more dangerous opponent but they don’t provide any sort of valid excuse for a slip-up.
Suggesting that this current Scotland team are a ‘golden generation’ is a surefire way to provoke anger and a tiresome slanging match on social media but what’s not up for debate is that they are far stronger than a Wales side that could generously be described as ‘in transition’. If Russell had packed his kicking boots, or England’s edge-of-the-seat scramble defence had been just a jot less effective, then Townsend’s troops would be sitting on two wins from three and feeling very different about this weekend’s potential banana skin.
They certainly appear to have the horses to do something special but are yet to convert talent into something truly tangible.
“The pressure is on us. It probably is one of the best Scotland teams in a generation,” said winger Darcy Graham in November. “We need to win something. The pressure is on us. I think it's the talent. The individuals. The whole squad. We've got world-class players everywhere. It's just about doing something with that.”
Graham, who has passed the HIA protocols and whose return is the only change to the starting XV for this weekend’s clash, is part of a backline as good as any in the northern hemisphere. He forms an explosive back three alongside Duhan van der Merwe and Blair Kinghorn, Russell pulls the strings from fly half as perhaps Scotland’s greatest No 10 of all time and the Sione Tuipulotu-Huw Jones centre partnership (although the former is injured for this Six Nations) dovetails spectacularly.
The main argument against this being a golden Scottish generation is that the pack lacks the physicality to go toe to toe with the very best in the world. While the claim in a Sunday Times headline ahead of the Calcutta Cup that their forwards are “weedy” was certainly a step too far, the forwards undoubtedly lack the star power of their backline counterparts, although Townsend this week vehemently denied that they are underpowered.
“When we go down to Twickenham and outscore England three tries to one, the pack’s got a big part to play in that,” said the head coach. “The first try, there were strong carries by the forwards that opened up space for the backs. The pack will provide that quick ball – they’re working contact and our lineout produced two tries.
“Ireland played well against us, but that’s one game obviously. I look at Australia, I look at how the pack fronted up against South Africa, I look at Italy and England. Ireland played well, there’s no question that they were the better team that day, but our pack has gone really well against other teams and this is another opportunity to show how good they are this weekend.”
The highs of the Townsend regime have been well worth celebrating. The Calcutta Cup dominance, a first Cardiff victory in two decades, the 53-24 mauling of Australia in 2017 and the record 44-15 away win over Argentina a year later. But that will all count for nought if they crack under the weight of pressure against Wales in Edinburgh.
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