An uptick. Improvement. It is what we needed, and got. After a poor two-week start to our 32nd season of NFL predictions in the Miami Herald, we bounced back with a solid Week 3 at 10-6 overall and 8-8 against the spread. We nailed our Upset of the Week with Dolphins beating Bills (“Aawwk!”) and had three other smaller outright upsets with wins by the Titans, Panthers and Cowboys. Four in one week! Also had Colts with points over Chiefs. Going .500 ATS is almost cause for a parade in a season that has had a record 18 games decided by three points or fewer through three weeks, with 10 more (!) betting lines at 3-or-smaller in Week 4. We’re claiming double-mo (mojo, momentum), so let’s keep it going.
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Week 3: 10-6, .625 overall; 8-8, .500 vs. spread.
Season: 24-23-1, .511 overall; 21-27, .438 vs. spread.
Final 2021: 172-99-1, .635 overall; 140-130-2, .519 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.
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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 4 PICKS
GAME OF THE WEEK
CHIEFS (2-1) at BUCCANEERS (2-1)
Line: Even.
Cote’s pick: KC, 27-23.
Game of the Week committee worked OT on this one. Bills-Ravens also had its constituency, and Rams-Niners and even Jaguars-Eagles had a delegate or two. But you can’t go wrong with Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady in a pick-’em game that is a prime-time rematch of two Super Bowls ago. And on a week in which Hurricane Ian messed with the very location of the game. Bucs practiced in Miami this week and game was set to move to Minnesota until Tampa lucked to avoid the worst of Ian and could stay home. A game of contrasts presents itself. Mahomes’ high-octane offense vs. Tampa‘s very excellent defense. And KC’s beatable D vs. a Bucs offense beset by receiver injuries — though getting healthier. Bottom line: Chiefs have won six in a row in prime time, and Mahomes’ blocking front has improved since that Super Bowl two seasons ago. Bucs’ defense is great. Mahomes will be better.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
BILLS (2-1) at RAVENS (2-1)
Line: BUF by 3.
Cote’s pick: BAL 34-31. Upset!
“AAAWWWK!” cracks the Upset Bird. “The raven and myself happen to be of the same family Corvus corax, but please infer no prejudice in the pick. No prejudaawwk!” Baltimore has won five straight at home vs. the Bills, and Crows are 15-3-1 against the spread in the past 19 as a home dog. Buffs are beset by injuries again this week, especially on D. Miami took advantage last week, and so will Lamar Jackson and the NFL’s highest-scoring offense Sunday. Jackson didn’t get the extended contract he wanted during the offseason, and is playing like a man bent to get his money. And maybe another MVP trophy. “Yes, he won in ‘19 and a reprise may be in the offing,” notes U-Bird. “Lamar Jaawwk! Baltimaaawwwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 4
Vikings (2-1, -2 1/2) over Saints (1-2), 23-18 in London: NFL’s 2022 World Domination Tour kIcks off at 9:30 a.m. ET at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium — the first of four games in London this year, with two others in Munich and Mexico City. This is quite the ordinary matchup (think Leeds United vs. Bournemouth), but UK folks are easily impressed when it comes to American football. N’Awlins is on an 18-1 tear in games played in October, but I’ve never much trusted random calendar trends. Vikes RB Dalvin Cook (shoulder) is iffy, but I still fancy Kirk Cousins — fancy, a word just for the Brits!) — over the sputtering offense of pick-prone Jameis Winston.
Browns (2-1, -1) over @Falcons (1-2), 27-24: This call in a near pick-’em game makes me nervous because I don’t trust either team. Cleves might be missing pass-rusher Myles Garrett (car wreck), but Birds counter with home-field disadvantage after losing nine of past 10 in Atlanta. Edge to Browns off a long week after playing last Thursday, and look for RB Nick Chubb to have a fantasy-tastic day.
@Cowboys (2-1, -3) over Commanders (1-2), 23-16: Not to jinx it, but Cooper Rush has fared capably in place of injured Dak Prescott, and should see Boys to their 10th win in past 13 meetings with their NFC East rivals. WR Michael Gallup’s likely season debut will only help Rush. The Manders’ O-line can’t protect Carson Wentz, and Zeke Elliott and Tony Pollard should go strong vs. a bad run-defense.
@Lions (1-2, -4) over Seahawks (1-2), 31-28: Detroit has to be one of my least-picked-to-win teams in 32 years of doing this (where’s my Research Department?), and here they are a favorite for the first time since November 2020. That’s despite some key possible injury absences including WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and RB D’Andre Swift. It is because Seattle stinks. But I’m still hedging on Hawks with points. Because its’ Detroit!
Titans (1-2, +3 1/2) over @Colts (1-1-1), 20-17. Upset!: I’m no slave to trends, but these catch the eye: Tennessee has beaten Indy three straight and four of past five, and the visiting team is on a 5-2 run in this AFC South rivalry. Though a division game, also see Colts facing letdown after last week’s big upset of Chiefs. Matt Ryan has been sacked 10 times over two games, so Ryan Tannehill won’t need a ton of points for the upset.
@Giants (2-1, -3) over Bears (2-1), 19-17: How are these teams both 2-1 despite being saddled with such bad offenses? Justin Fields is already getting booed by Bears fans. Now the G-Men are minus top WR Sterling Shepherd. NYG is on a short week after playing Monday and has lost to Chitown each of past three seasons. Still lean Biggies at home, but Pandas with points.
@Eagles (3-0, -6 1/2) over Jaguars (2-1), 30-20: Jacksonville stunned the Chargers in a road-rout last week and now Jags coach Doug Pederson has the chance to deal a first loss to his former team in Philly. Eagles and Dolphins entered Week 4 as lone unbeatens left but only Phils are favored to stay that way. Two hot QBs in Trevor Lawrence and Jalen Hurts promise sparks, but the contender and the pretender shall reveal themselves.
@Steelers (1-2, -3) over Jets (1-2), 23-13: Spotlight hot on the two passers here as Jets’ Zach Wilson is green-lit to make his season debut following an August knee injury, while Pitt’s Mitch Trubisky fights to stave off a growing call for rookie Kenny Pickett. Steelers’ D misses T.J. Watt badly but still packs enough heat to bother a rusty Wilson, especially if S Minkah Fitzpatrick (concussion) is able to play as hoped.
Chargers (1-2, -5) over @Texans (0-2-1), 27-16: Good teams bounce back big from bad losses, and we’re giving benefit of doubt that Bolts are a good team. Favorable matchup for Justin Herbert, whose ribs should be better, to shake off that embarrassing home loss to Jax, especially with WR Keenan Allen likely back after two games out. LAC’s issues are on defense, but Houston doesn’t counter with a lot of offensive pop.
@Panthers (1-2, -1 1/2) over Cardinals (1-2), 26-23: It isn’t that I have any confidence in Baker Mayfield. But I do like RB Christian McCaffrey and the Cats’ defense. And Zona has a bad defense and not many healthy weapons around Kyler Murray. Carolina also has won six straight over Cardbirds, including 34-10 last year.
@Packers (2-1, -9 1/2) over Patriots (1-2), 27-13: Bill Belichick keeps insisting that Mac Jones is “day-to-day.” (Existentially, though, aren’t we all, really?) In fact Jones’ ankle sprain will shelve him several weeks, so enter Brian Hoyer, who it feels like has been New England’s backup QB since 1978. Green Bay is great at home and the Pats kill themselves with turnovers. Oh and did I mention it’s Aaron Rodgers vs. Brian Hoyer?
@Raiders (0-3, -2 1/2) over Broncos (2-1), 24-20: The league’s last remaining 0-3 team will get off the schneid here, especially if Vegas has an epiphany and starts throwing to Davante Adams more. Denver’s defense will keep it in games, but QB Russell Wilson has been a big disappointment thus far and doesn’t have Broncs’ offense humming enough to keep up. Raiders have won six straight at home in the rivalry.
Rams (2-1, +1 1/2) over @49ers (1-2), 23-21. Upset!: Niners the slightest of faves in a near pick-’em game, but Rams will pressure Jimmy Garoppolo and force mistakes, especially with SF missing stellar LT Trent Williams to an ankle sprain. Our toughest call of the week, though. Mathew Stafford also can be error-prone, so chances are a turnover may be the difference here.
[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday afternoon.]
