In a scene from the 1981 film “Absence of Malice” (set in Miami; I had a very small part as an extra), someone steals newspapers off front lawns so a story that has been published won’t be read. I feel like doing that now so that no one will see what I must confess here: I went 6-7 straight-up last week. Far worse, I was 2-11 against the spread — my single-worst week ATS in 32 seasons of NFL picks in the Herald. Nothing I say can mitigate the inexcusable, so we move on more determined than ever for a strong finish to a trying season. [Note, result of Thursday night’s 49ers-Seahawks game not included below.]
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Week 14: 6-7, .462 overall; 2-11, .154 vs. spread.
Season: 120-86-2, .583 overall; 96-106-6, .476 vs. spread.
Final 2021: 172-99-1, .635 overall; 140-130-2, .519 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.
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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 15 PICKS
GAME OF THE WEEK
DOLPHINS (8-5) at BILLS (10-3)
Line: BUF by 7.
Cote’s pick: BUF, 28-14.
TV: 8:15 p.m. Saturday, NFL.
Deep into holiday season, wintry weather in play, bye weeks done — the NFL’s stretch run to the playoffs is on! And look who’s in prime time and batting cleanup on King Sport’s Saturday tripleheader: Dolphins and Bills in these AFC East rivals’ 118th all-time meeting. Alas, the circumstance for Miami looks as brutal as the weather is forecast to be. That would be temps in the high 20s with snow showers expected. Against a Buffalo team gunning to avenge its early season 21-19 loss at Hard Rock. And in a place that has not been kind to the Fins. Bills had won seven in a row and nine of past 10 in series before the the loss in September. Buffs also have won five in a row and nine of past 10 at home vs .Miami. The Bills clinch a playoff spot if they win, and catch Miami on a two-game tailspin in which Tua Tagovailoa’s excellent season sort of went thud. Now? Let s just say that at Buffalo, in the snow, on a short week coming off consecutive losses, against a second-ranked scoring defense, is a tough spot for Tagovailoa to get his mojo back. Josh Allen’s offense has had struggles of its own lately, but the defense has not wavered. All of these factors make me not like Miami’s chances here, to put it mildly.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
BENGALS (9-4) at BUCCANEERS (6-7)
Line: CIN by 3 1/2.
Cote’s pick: TB, 27-24. Upset!
TV: 4:25, CBS.
“AAAWWWK!” carols the Upset Bird. “Santa, all I want for Christmas is this upset pick. Christmaaawwwk!” Cincy has cast aside early season doubts with a 7-1 streak behind an in-charge Joe Burrow. Tampa limps toward the playoffs only because everybody else in the sad NFC South is even worse. Bucs got routed by San Fran last week and Tom Brady has spent much of the season looking ticked off. So, yes, there is very little to justify this crazy upset pick beyond a plain hunch. Bengals WRs Tee Higgins (hamstring) and Tyler Boyd (finger) might be limited if they play at all. Three of four Cincy losses have come on the road. And if there was ever a time for Brady to summon his inner G.O.A.T., this is it. “ 'Inner G.O.A.T.’ Like the phrase,” nods U-Bird. “Tampa Baawwk! Tom Braawwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 15:
49ers at Seahawks Thursday night: We had San Francisco (-3 1/2) winning at Seattle and also covering, 24-17.
@Vikings (10-3, -4) over Colts (4-8-1), 27-17: Opening game of Saturday’s tripleheader finds Minnesota able to clinch NFC North title with a win (or if Detroit loses). Vikings not the powerhouse their record suggests but they are 6-1 at home and catch reeling Indy on a 1-6 skid and the edge of elimination. Vikes roll.
Ravens (9-4, +3) over @Browns (5-8), 20-17. Upset!: Lamar Jackson (knee) is unlikely to play in the middle game of Saturday’s trio, though backup Tyler Huntley (concussion) seems as if he will. Even sans Jackson, the Ravens defense is built to win low-scoring games. Baltimore as won 11 of the past 14 in this rivalry (including 23-20 in Week 7), is 5-2 away from home,and I like Crows’ pass-rush pestering Deshaun Watson into an INT or two.
Eagles (12-1, -9) over @Bears (3-10), 28-20: Chitown is off a bye but eliminated. Philly was first to clinch a playoff spot but still angles for No. 1 NFC seed. Eagles have scored 123 points over past three games and face a Bears defense that has allowed 27 or more in six straight losses. But Birds’ weakness is run D, and CHI can do some of that, led by QB Justin Fields, who is iffy (shoulder) but expected to play. Hunch Pandas stay inside bet line.
@Saints (4-9, -4) over Falcons (5-8), 24-16: Both teams had a bye week to ponder how disappointing their seasons have been. Atlanta turns to raw rookie QB Desmond Ridder for his NFL baptism, a likely feast for Cajuns’ defense. N’Awlins on a 5-1 series run including one-point win in season opener, and ATL is a bad road team. Look for Saints to unleash mysteriously underutilized Alvin Kamara.
@Jets (7-6, -1) over Lions (6-7), 26-23: Playoff factor is high here. Two straight losses have left New York a tiebreaker off pace in AFC, while five wins in past six games have given Detroit a fighting shot in NFC. Matchup was pick-’em at some sportsbooks. Jets QB Mike White (concussion) is expected to get the green light for a favorable matchup vs. Lions;’ defense, while Jared Goff’s sneaky-good season faces big test from Planes’ stout secondary.
@Panthers (5-8, -3) over Steelers (5-8), 19-17: Two teams mathematically alive in playoff chase but with no real chance. Pitt’s QB situation muddies the pick, with Kenny Pickett in concussion protocol, Mitch Trubisky on call and third-stringer Mason Rudolph a possibility. I seldom trust Carolina enough to lean its way, but Cats are on a 3-1 run, have had extra time after playing last Thursday, and their ground game provides a big lift for Sam Darnold. But hedging with Steelers-plus-3.
Cowboys (10-3, -4) over @Jaguars (5-8), 30-20: Dallas clinches playoff spot with win or a combo of other results falling right. Trevor Lawrence has been great lately despite playing through a toe injury, but faces his toughest test of the year vs. the Cowboys’ elite, pocket-crashing pass rush. And with no Jax running game to fear, that rush could be all-out. Jags have won four straight outright as a home dog, and a pick or two by Dak Prescott could keep this close, but still like ‘Boys’ cover.
Chiefs (10-3, -14) over @Texans (1-11-1), 28-17: Houston is long-eliminated and No. 1 draft pick-bound, but showed it has heart and fight left in nearly stunning Dallas last week. K.C. led Denver by 27 last week but only won by six. These things make Texans-plus-14 a decent play. Like Patrick Mahomes outright, of course, especially with his receiving corps getting healthier. Chiefs cinch AFC West crown with a win, or if Chargers lose.
@Broncos (3-10, -2 1/2) over Cardinals (4-9), 19-16: Denver is eliminated; Zona will be with a loss here. Tough venue in winter on a short week for Cardbirds, especially with Kyler Murray lost for the rest of the season. Broncos’ pass rush and secondary will be a problem for backup Colt McCoy. Russell Wilson (concussion) is iffy with Brett Rypien on call, but leaning on home field and big defense.
Patriots (7-6, -1) over @Raiders (5-8), 23-18: Toughest pick of the week for me. Vegas in a spoiler role as Patriots fight to stay in AFC playoff hunt. Raiders also enjoy a rest/prep edge after playing last Thursday while NE played Monday. Ultimately I trust Bill Belichick and Pats’ defense. Derek Carr showed how bad he can be in a loss to Rams last week, and this will be a bigger test for him.
@Chargers (7-6, -3) over Titans (7-6), 28-23: Tennessee is trying as hard as it can (three straight losses) to not win the AFC South, while LAC’s upset of Miami has Bolts a tiebreaker off playoff pace. Derrick Henry can run on L.A., but I like Justin Herbert even more vs. Tenners’ 31st-ranked pass defense. Titans being due to bust out of their slump makes this an anxious pick for me, but the Chargers I saw dominate the Dolphins and Tua are the better team.
@Commanders (7-5-1, -4 1/2) over Giants (7-5-1), 23-20: A good one for prime-time Sunday and our Game of the Week runner-up finds both of these rivals on NFC playoff pace — but the loser here perhaps not. Teams tied 20-20 just two weeks ago and I like Washington at home in the rematch, with a better defense, coming off a bye, and 5-1-1 under Taylor Heinicke. By contrast NYG is in a 1-4-1 slump. Lean Biggies wit the points, though.
@Packers (5-8, -7) over Rams (4-9), 21-7: This is about as intriguing a Monday night matchup as you will get from two teams a combined 9-17 — two proud teams slogging through the ignominy of unexpectedly bad seasons. You’ve got Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay still dreaming of running the table and somehow sneaking into the playoffs. You’ve got the Rams, a beleaguered reigning Super Bowl champion, playing out the string with Baker Mayfield at QB. All with wintry Lambeau Field the backdrop. All Pack.
(Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday afternoon.)
