We were an OK 10-6 overall but a bloodbath 5-10-1 against the spread, with the Eagles’ 7-point win the push for the tie. We’d been on a nice run ATS, making the long climb to get up over .500 for the year before the crash. Hit our Upset of the Week with Panthers beating Broncos (“Aawwk!”) and had Lions with the points on Thanksgiving, but otherwise too many near-misses and too little went right. Rebound time! We are determined to finish a very tough year over the Mendoza line (.600) overall and plus-.500 vs. the Evil Betting Line. Let’s go! [Result of the Thursday night Bills-Patriots game not included below.]
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Week 12: 10-6, .625 overall; 5-10-1, .344 vs. spread.
Season: 104-75-1, .581 overall; 86-88-6, .494 vs. spread.
Final 2021: 172-99-1, .635 overall; 140-130-2, .519 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.
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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 13 PICKS
GAME OF THE WEEK
BROWNS (4-7) at TEXANS (1-9-1)
Line: CLE by 7.
Cote’s pick: CLE, 27-16.
TV: 1 p.m., CBS.
Week 13 features no less than six great, quality matchups that could be Game of the Week — including Dolphins-49ers, Chiefs-Bengals and Titans-Eagles. And we’re picking a game between two teams that are a combined 5-16-1. What!? Why? Because quality teams are not all that go into it. Watchability, curiosity, drama and controversy also do. And Deshaun Watson’s long-awaited return from the purgatory of his own tawdry design has all of those elements. That the 11-game suspension ends against his former team is so perfect it’s almost as if the NFL planned it (!). Watson is sure to be way rusty in his first game in 700 days. Expect a pick or two. Might even fancy an upset, which I would not rule out if the opponent weren’t so horrid. (Surely most of America is rooting against Watson.) Won’t come down the QB, though. Not when you have Browns’ high-powered ground game vs. a Texans’ run defense ranked 32nd, a.k.a. dead-last. Nick Chubb-a-dub-dub!
UPSET OF THE WEEK
COMMANDERS (7-5) at GIANTS (7-4)
Line: WAS by 2 1/2.
Cote’s pick: NYG, 23-20. Upset!
TV: 1 p.m., Fox.
“AAAWWWK!” bellows the Upset Bird. “New Yaawwk!” The point spread is no mystery. Clearly, Washington enters this game in better form, on a 6-1 run and 5-1 under Taylor Heinicke, who keeps the QB job even though Carson Wentz is now healthy. That’s while NYG has dropped three of its past four and is on an 0-5 skid within the NFC East. These are two flawed but playoff-chasing teams. Commanders defense has not allowed more than 21 points since Week 4 and could get DE Chase Young back (thought that’s quite iffy). So why the upset? Giants are rested after playing last Thursday, are home, and have the law of averages suggesting Washington is due a stumble. Simple odds, that. Also: Just a hunch on my part. “Keep your hunch,” adds U-Bird. “I’ll take 100 yards from Saquon Barkley, please. Saquon Baawwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 13:
Bills at Patriots Thursday night: We had New England at home (+4) beating Buffalo in an outright upset, 24-23.
@Falcons (5-7 +1) over Steelers (4-7), 19-17. Upset!: A near pick-’em game that swung one point in both directions will see two strong ground games meant to hide two subpar QBs go at in a clock-grinding affair. Pittsburgh in better form lately but has lost four of six away while ATL is on a 4-1 run in their dome, so home field may be an edge. Steelers also coming off a short week with RB Najee Harris iffy to play entering Thursday.
Packers (4-8, -4 1/2) over @Bears (3-9), 23-20: Aaron Rodgers (ribs) and Justin Fields (shoulder) both are questionable, but games are rarely off betting boards anymore, so gamblers must guess and pray. Pack on an 11-1 run at Soldier Field and Rodgers loves to remind Bears fans he ”owns” them. Except he owns nobody this year, so point spread flatters GB and upset shot is high. Taking Packers perhaps by habit, but Gee Bees’ bad run D better hope Fields’ injury limits his potent scrambling.
@Lions (4-7, Even) over Jaguars (4-7), 34-30: One of two pick-’em games this week (a rarity) among five with spreads of less than a field goal. Both team have seen an upturn, Jax winning two of three including an upset of Ravens last week, and DET winning three straight before that narrow Thanksgiving loss to Buffalo. The extra rest is an edge for Lions; so is Jags’ 1-19 skid on the road. Trevor Lawrence has been better lately despite a shaky O-line. Detroit’s defense, has improved, too, but expect a shootout.
@Vikings (9-2, -3) over Jets (7-4), 26-21: Minnesota can become first team to claim playoff spot; it will clinch NFC North with win if Detroit loses. Vikes have become a stout home team (6-1 run), but pocket-bound Kirk Cousins could face heat from NYJ’s pass rush. Big question on other side: Can green Mike White in his fifth pro start capitalize on Minny’s generous pass defense? Edge to home team with the more explosive offense.
@Eagles (10-1, -5) over Titans (7-4), 27-17: Philly clinches a playoff spot by winning — but only if at least three other results all fall right. Tennessee’s defense has not allowed more than 20 points in eight straight games, a remarkable run. But Eagles are a challenge like no other. Jalen Hurts last week became first player in 70 years to pass and run for at least 150 yards and throw two TDs. (MVP voters love stuff like that!) Best bet: Hurts saves a scoring pass for A.J. Brown, the ex-Titan.
@Ravens (7-4, -8 1/2) over Broncos (3-8), 24-13: Anybody still expecting Denver’s constipated offense to solve itself and for embattled Russell Wilson to turn around an awful season? Not me. Baltimore’s stout run stoppage will force Wilson to win by air, a near-hopeless prospect even if he gets Jerry Jeudy back. Ravens have blown four double-digit leads in the fourth quarter — but Denver won’t have one of those. Broncos’ best shot is its defense keeping the score ground-floor low.
@49ers (7-4, -4) over Dolphins (8-3), 28-17: It’s Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel’s homecoming game vs. his former 49ers (Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr., too) and they sail in on a five-game win streak. I believe in Miami as playoff-good, as capable of winning the AFC East. I believe in Tua Tagovailoa. But I also believe this is not a good matchup for the Fins. San Fran is home on a four-game win streak of its own, allowing only 40 total points during it. This is the NFL’s best defense, the best Miami has faced and the biggest challenge of Tagovailoa’s season of redemption. The Niners’ run defense is great. Some SF injuries in pass coverage open up possibilities for Miami, but the Niners’ pass rush could dominate a Fins O-line that will be missing top blocker Terron Armstead. Also troubling: Miami’s defense tends to play much better at home than on the road, where they have allowed a 32.8 points per game and not less than 27 in any one game. A breakout performance from Christian McCaffrey (if healthy) is in the offing. Do I give Miami any upset shot? Yes. But it will take a defensive effort a ton better than we have yet seen away from Hard Rock. And Tua finding time to solve the NFL’s best defense. A large ask.
Seahawks (6-5, -7 1/2) over @Rams (3-8), 23-17: The buzzy bloom is off Seattle a bit with two straight losses, but Rams are so down and depleted — missing Matthew Stafford and now Aaron Donald in addition to Cooper Kupp (among others) — that the chance of an L.A. upset seems remote. Especially with no run game to capitalize on Seahawks defensive weakness. Even in those dire striats, I’m chancing Rams with the points.
Chiefs (9-2, -2) over @Bengals (7-4), 37-34: Two hot, explosive teams make for the real Game of the Week — a rematch of last year’s AFC title game, won 27-24 in OT by Cincy. It was no fluke. Bengals have won six of past seven in series. That gives K.C. the revenge factor, though, and it’s tough to imagine Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid not finding a way here. Home team hopes to have Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon both back, but that only narrows the gap. Because nobody tops Mahomes’ Chiefs for firepower.
Chargers (6-5, Even) over @Raiders (4-7), 27-23: Chargers have won three of past four against this division rival, but the loss was 35-32 in OT to end last season — and cost L.A. a playoff spot. Revenge, anyone? Bolts have been better on the road (4-2) than Vegas has been at home, and Josh Jacobs is questionable for Raiders and could be limited. Pick-’em game tilts for me on Justin Herbert vs. a bottom-fourth Vegas pass defense.
@Cowboys (8-3, -11) over Colts (4-7-1), 24-9: The brief bloom is off the Colts and new coach Jeff Saturday after two straight losses. And with it some of the drama for this Sunday nighter. Dallas also enjoys a big edge in rest/prep, playing on Thanksgiving last week while Indy played Monday night. The Cowboys’ NFL-leading sack attack is fixin’ to devour stationary target Matt Ryan.
@Buccaneers (5-6, -3 1/2) over Saints (4-8), 21-17: An easy sell because of Tom Brady, but otherwise a stinker for Monday night and an indictment of what has become of the NFC South. Saints have been a bit of a nemesis for Tampa, with a 7-1 series run before Bucs won 20-10 this season in Week 2. But N’Awlins is only 1-4 on the road, I still trust TB’s defense a bit more, and I cannot see Brady — though his offense has been a large disappointment — being outscored at home by Andy Dalton.
[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday afternoon.]
OFF THIS WEEK
Cardinals (4-8, next vs. Patriots) — After a that-kind-of-season 25-24 loss to Chargers on a last-second 2-point conversion, Arizona prepares to have its troubles on full display on a Monday night vs. New England.
Panthers (4-8, next @Seahawks) — Carolina, though still pretty bad, is an improved 3-4 since firing coach Matt Rhule and 3-3 since trading away star running back Christian McCaffrey.
