We niftied a very solid 10-3 mark overall last week and went even at 5-5-3 against the spread — with wins by the Chargers, Vikings and Bucs all pushing on 3-point lines for the ties. Nailed two outright upsets with Jaguars beating Raiders and Seahawks beating Cardinals. Had Washington winning in our upset of the week and salvaged a push against the spread. Also had Titans with the points to cover at Kansas City. Tough season at its halftime, but we’re rallying!
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Week 9: 10-3, .769 overall; 5-5-3, .500 vs. spread.
Season: 78-57-1, .578 overall; 65-67-4, .493 vs. spread.
Final 2021: 172-99-1, .635 overall; 140-130-2, .519 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.
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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 10 PICKS
GAME OF THE WEEK
VIKINGS (7-1) at BILLS (6-2)
Line: BUF by 3 1/2.
Cote’s pick: BUF, 24-16.
TV: 1 p.m., Fox.
The lone Week 10 matchup with two winning-record teams finds Buffs QB Josh Allen nursing an elbow injury and his playing or not might be a game-day decision. But Case Keenum, 34 with 64 career starts, is a solid backup. Might be a good time to crank up Devin Singletary and spark what has been an underwhelming Bills run game. In any case Buffalo has won seven in a row at home, and its excellent defense is capable of carrying the day. I’m still not quite sold on Minnesota even after six wins in a row — all by one score and five against teams with a losing record. Win this one, Vikes, and you will have our attention and some of the national respect that has been missing. I say you won’t — especially if Allen plays, but even if he doesn’t.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
SAINTS (3-6) at STEELERS (2-6)
Line: NO by 1 1/2.
Cote’s pick: PIT, 19-16. Upset!
TV: 1 p.m., Fox.
“AAAWWWK!” howls the Upset Bird. “Pittsbaawwk!” Overdue to catch a break, Pittsburgh is Sunday’s only home dog, and in that role the team is on a 7-2 run straight up (and 7-0-2 against the spread). Steelers also are coming off a bye, and on a 5-0 run in that role. But we mostly pin this upset on the anticipated return of linebacker T.J. Watt, the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year who has been out since a Week 1 injury. His impact on the defense and the emotional lift both figure huge. Also, don’t trust N’Awlins or Andy Dalton, and the continuing purgatory of a now-healthy Jameis Winston is a conundrum. “Purgatory and conundrum. Words not often associated with a football prediction,” notes U-Bird. “Purgataawwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 10
Falcons (4-5, -3) at Panthers (2-7) Thursday night: We had Atlanta winning and covering the points at Carolina, 24-20.
@Dolphins (6-3, -3 1/2) over Browns (3-5), 31-21: This point spread only modestly favoring the Dolphins might be seen as disrespecting Miami, but I get it. Repeat after me: The Browns are not bad. They just beat the Bengals, handily. Four of their losses have been by nine combined points. Nick Chubb (cousin of new Dolphin Bradley Chubb) leads a really strong ground game. They are coming off a bye week. And they will have Pro Bowl cornerback Denzel Ward back from a concussion. Fins are flying high with three wins in a row, but the upset warning lights are flashing. Having said all that, while the Browns are not bad, the Dolphins are good. Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are having Pro Bowl seasons. Miami is on a 9-1 run at home and Cleveland on a 1-6 skid on the road. Miami is 5-0 in one-score games — the close ones the Browns consistently lose. And the Dolphins defense, not stat-impressive overall, rises to play appreciably better at home. A key for Miami might be an early lead big enough to force Cleveland to make QB Jacoby Brissett win it. Miami’s backup last season, Brissett isn’t very good and cannot hang with Tua in a shootout. Deshaun Watson will be off his league suspension in a few weeks; meantime Brissett is a liability who won’t outscore a Dolphins offense flying high.
Buccaneers (4-5, -2 1/2) over Seahawks (6-3), 24-17: It’s breakfast in Munich (Weisswurst and Schnecken, anyone?) as NFL makes its regular-season debut in Germany with a 9:30 a.m. kickoff. Matchup got GOTW consideration as Geno Smith packs four wins in a row for the trip to face Tom Brady. Big upset shot in play, but give me Tom and Tampa’s strong pass defense slowing the Geno train. Also, Seattle’s beatable run defense makes this a fine time to uncork Leonard Fournette.
@Bears (3-6, -3) over Lions (2-6), 27-23: Two bad defenses and two offenses that can pop could make for a fun afternoon. Motown is not the team to stop Chitown’s Justin Fields-led ground assault. He tore through Miami for a QB-record 178 yards — and Lions’ run D is second worst in the league. Detroit’s also a bad road team.
Broncos (3-5, +2 1/2) over @Titans (5-3), 19-17. Upset!: Admittedly a high-risk upset pick. The main why: Either a hobbled Ryan Tannehill coming off a two-game absence with an ankle injury or a super-shaky Malik Willis will be leading Titans vs. a really strong Denver defense. Broncos not been a great road team lately (1-6 skid) but expect big effort — and, yes, a big game from Russell Wilson — coming off a bye.
@Chiefs (6-2, -9 1/2) over Jaguars (3-6), 34-16: Don’t overthink this one. K.C. has won five in a row over Jax, and it’s Patrick Mahomes vs. a subpar Jags pass defense. Chiefs are off a tight ‘n narrow Sunday night win over Tennessee and could face a letdown here, but still see enough of a Mahomes show for the cover.
@Giants (6-2, -4 1/2) over Texans (1-6-1), 23-13: NYG off a bye and Houston played last Thursday so two rested teams butt helmets. Texans have two paths to an upset: 1). The defense is decent at creating takeaways, and 2). Dameon Pierce vs. NFL’s worst run defense. But this too: Texans are on a 1-7 skid vs. teams with a winning record, and 3-15 in last 18 games as a road dog.
@Raiders (2-6, -6) over Colts (3-5-1), 20-17: Panicky Indy fired coach Frank Reich and hauled Jeff Saturday out of an ESPN studio to replace him as the Colts try to end a three-game slide with Sam Ehlinger on-the-job-training at QB. And yet Vegas is untrustworthy — losing three games it led 17-0 — and every bit as big a disappointment. Strong lean toward Nags to cover getting six, and an outright upset would not shock.
Cowboys (6-2, -4 1/2) over @Packers (3-6), 23-20: This is our Game of the Week first alternate, partly because, in the mind at least, we imagine beleaguered Aaron Rodgers rising from the metaphoric coffin and leading Pack to an upset as Lambeau parties like it’s any year but this one. And it could happen! Has Dallas not lost eight of past nine vs. GB? (It has.) And doesn’t law of averages suggest Rodgers won’t lose a sixth straight game? Dallas is off a bye and can run on Gee Bees, but still like Rodgers to keep it tight, with an outright upset well in play.
@Rams (3-5, -1 1/2) over Cardinals (3-6, ), 23-16: Tough to call this result on a Thursday afternoon unsure if Rams QB Matthew Stafford (concussion) will be cleared to play or if John Wolford will make a second career start. Frankly, the way Stafford has played for a Super Bowl champion team fighting just to make the playoffs, the drop-off to Wolford might not be that great. Rams are on an 11-1 streak in this division rivalry, including a Week 3 win, and Zona has only even covered once in that span. Cards bad defense should be tonic for LAR scoring woes no matter who’s taking snaps.
@49ers (4-4, -7) over Chargers (5-3), 21-20: Sunday nighter finds Niners held in high regard for a .500 team, but that starts with the only defense in NFL allowing under 200 yards passing and under 100 yards rushing per game. Also, San Fran is off a bye, Deebo Samuel is back healthy and Christian McCaffrey is a plus matchup vs. LAC’s poor run-stopping. Like Bolts staying inside the bet-line, though. They’ve won five straight over 49ers, are 3-1 on road, and on a 4-1 roll overall.
@Eagles (8-0,-11) over Commanders (4-5), 24-17: Monday night is not the time for Philly’s first loss. Sorry, 1972 Dolphins. Wish I had better news. Birds have won three straight and nine of past 11 in this division grudge, beat Commanders comfortably in Week 3, and now are home and rested after playing last Thursday. But! Washington is not bad, folks. They’d won three straight before narrowly losing to Vikings, and have not allowed more than 21 points in five straight games. Comms with the points.
OFF THIS WEEK
Bengals (5-4, next @Steelers) — Cincy and Joe Burrow bounced back from bad loss at Cleveland by dropping a 35-0 first half on Carolina last week.
Jets (6-3, next @Patriots) — NYJ is on a 5-1 hot streak. The Planes’ only loss in that stretch? To Bill Belichick, whom they face again after the bye.
Patriots (5-4, next vs. Jets) — Pats’ 26-3 spanking of Colts got coach Frank Reich fired last week. New England has now roared back from a 1-3 start.
Ravens (6-3, next vs. Panthers) — Baltimore has won three straight and could be favored in at least seven of its last eight regular-season games.
