The Green Party has defied the odds as a government support partner, not only surviving but increasing its votes. Co-leader James Shaw spoke to political editor Jo Moir about the highs, the lows, and why he has no plan to call it quits.
There are many ways you could describe James Shaw but done with politics is not one of them.
The co-leader has a clear path set out through until 2025 and insists he wants to be in Parliament, whether that’s in government or opposition, to see through significant climate change milestones.
There has been mounting speculation that Shaw might be ready to call time on Parliament at or ahead of the next election due to pressure from the more activist Green Party base, calls for a new leadership model, and his own ambitions for a career outside of politics.
Political commentator Matthew Hooton wrote a piece for the NZ Herald saying a vacancy in the Greens’ co-leadership is expected sometime between next month’s Budget and the end of 2023. “If not head-hunted by an international agency, he’s a shoo-in to replace Rod Carr as chair of the Climate Change Commission if Chris Luxon becomes prime minister,’’ Hooton wrote.
Newsroom’s interview with Shaw, in which he painted a very different picture of his future, took place the evening before.
"I'm just not done,'' Shaw told Newsroom on Thursday. “When it comes to climate change, 2024 and 2025 are really big years.
“2025 is the end of the first emissions budget period that we’re now in, so it’s a big milestone … it’s when we set the next nationally determined contribution for the Paris agreement … It’s when agricultural emissions pricing kicks in.’’
“As ministers I think we’re making a lot of progress, partly because we don’t have New Zealand First tripping us up all over the show.’’ – James Shaw, Climate Change Minister
In 2015 when Shaw contested the party’s co-leadership he campaigned on his ambition “to take us into government and safely out the other side’’.
“We have bucked the trend, but at the time the failure rate of support parties was 100 percent, so quite an ambitious claim to make but I stand by it,’’ he said.
“I want to know that when we go into opposition, we’re in good hands and safely through, whether that happens next year on in four-and-a-half years."
Based on history and a bit of maths, Shaw reckons the change of government will come in 2026, after nine years of a Labour-led government.
“Getting legislation through and getting it cranking is what I want to do. Then I think having had that full evolution of the wheel we go into the 2026 election, and if I look at the maths, chances are there will be a change of government in 2026.’’
If Shaw is wrong and National is in power next year, he says he’ll find another way to be part of those milestones.
“We set the Zero Carbon Act up deliberately as a bipartisan piece of legislation so that work would continue, and it’s important to me, so if we find ourselves in opposition and if there’s a way I can help to assure its success then I will do that,’’ Shaw told Newsroom.
Asked if he could see the Green Party having a relationship with National beyond climate change work, Shaw wasn’t convinced.
“I can’t imagine there would be circumstances in which National would want to work with us, or we’d want to work with them, given how different our agendas are.’’
But Shaw does acknowledge things are different under new National leader, Christopher Luxon.
He says it’s clear his arrival has made the party “more competitive and brought a level of discipline and focus that they haven’t had for quite a long time’’.
But that’s where the compliments end, adding he doubts National has the talent and experience currently to get into government. “It’s quite a thin team," he says. "Do I think there will be a change of government? No, I don’t.’’
Pros and cons of government arrangements
The current cooperation agreement the Green Party finds itself in with the Labour Party is streets apart from the supply and confidence arrangement of last term.
In 2017 New Zealand First and Labour signed a coalition agreement - Labour separately signed a supply and confidence deal with the Greens.
It led to New Zealand First stymying much of the work the Greens tried to promote and on occasion pulling its support at the last minute when assurances had been given otherwise.
Despite the fact Shaw had a good personal relationship with New Zealand First leader Winston Peters, it didn’t extend to a particularly fruitful working one.
Shaw says New Zealand First’s exit from Parliament has certainly helped with the Green Party’s work programme.
“As ministers I think we’re making a lot of progress, partly because we don’t have New Zealand First tripping us up all over the show.’’
It also means there aren’t dead rats to swallow, like when the Greens were forced to vote in favour of the waka-jumping legislation, a bill they had long opposed.
Shaw says the dead rats have disappeared this term.
“Part of that was the nature of that arrangement last time. New Zealand First had an agenda, parts of which we really didn’t like.
“We don’t really have that issue with Labour, with Labour we actually want them to do more and go faster,’’ Shaw said.
“We’ve taken a different view on some of the Covid measures for example, a more precautionary approach, we disagreed with some of those decisions. But if we agreed with everything we’d be members of the Labour Party.
“There’s not much point having two political parties if you agree on everything,’’ he said.
"I'm just not done.'' – James Shaw
The main point of difference this term, where the Greens have just two MPs in the executive (Shaw and co-leader Marama Davidson) versus the four it had previously, is the more limited influence the party has over the broader government agenda.
“In the last one we had more influence…not only because we had more ministers but the nature of the agreement meant you needed the consensus of all three parties and so we were able to influence everywhere.’’
Shaw said that had its downsides too because for a small party it was a lot of work and meant “really picking your battles’’.
Under the cooperation agreement Shaw says more of the caucus have a “freer hand’’ but making change does rely on influence and “you get more influence when you’re in a government more fully than we are at the moment’’.
Adding to that is the ongoing shadow of Covid and the halt it has put on many work programmes.
“I’ve had stuff that has been delayed, sometimes not just by months but a year or two, which is a bit of a bugger.’’
With new waves and variants always threatening, Shaw said it’s hard to see light at the end of the tunnel sometimes.
But then there’s successes like the climate-related financial disclosures legislation and clean car discount that his party has successfully got through already this term.
Shaw says that’s proof real progress can be made – even in a Covid world.
Today on Newsroom Pro: Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson on transparency and governing with a single-party majority
