Voters will choose their voices in Greater Manchester's town halls when local election polling stations open finally free from Covid restrictions on Thursday after yet another turbulent political year. From 'partygate' and the war in Ukraine to the cost of living crisis, 'levelling up' and the coronavirus pandemic, politics and its people have once again never been far from the headlines.
And the same can be said in Greater Manchester, with issues including the Clean Air Zone, major bus reform, rising council taxes and charges and claims of broken promises to the North over rail investment all hitting the front pages, alongside the defection of a Tory MP to the Labour Party in the 'red wall' constituency of Bury South.
In Manchester, a new era was ushered in as Manchester City Council appointed a new political leader for the first time in a quarter of a century; Labour's Burnage councillor Bev Craig taking the reins after Sir Richard Leese formerly stood down after 25 years at the helm. Elsewhere issues including regeneration, green belt protection and town centre redevelopment have dominated campaigning.
Despite Labour suffering significant losses in last year's local elections the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, will be tested at the ballot box for the first time since the Downing Street lockdown parties scandal and the resignation of Tory MP Neil Parish over pornography allegations, amid a backdrop of falling opinion poll ratings. Labour currently run nine of the local councils in Greater Manchester. Stockport and Bolton are in no overall control, with Stockport council under a Labour administration and the Conservatives in power in Bolton as the largest single party.
So-called 'all out' elections will be held in Rochdale and Bury, with every seat there being contested due to boundary changes. Should there be any political changes, those four authorities appear most likely to record any shocks, although Labour's dominance across Greater Manchester continues to stand firm.
Ahead of the elections this week, the Manchester Evening News and the Local Democracy Reporting Service take an in-depth look at all 10 local authorities, assessing what the main political events have been and analysing what could happen on May 5 and 6.
Votes will be verified and counted - with results revealed - on Friday in Bury, Manchester, Rochdale and Trafford. Overnight results are expected once polls close at 10pm on Thursday in Bolton, Oldham, Salford, Tameside, Stockport and Wigan.
Bury: A key battleground for Labour.
The council has all of its 51 seats up for grabs this year and Labour has run the council since 2011. An indication of how important the town is seen by the major parties is that Keir Starmer launched the Labour Party's local election campaign there last month and Boris Johnson himself visited just last week.
Both parliamentary seats went Conservative in the December, 2019 general election, James Daly winning by just 105 votes in Bury North. However, former Tory Christian Wakeford in Bury South defected to Labour earlier this year. The council is currently Labour run with them holding a majority of 28 of the 51 seats, the Conservatives have 15 with four Liberal Democrats, three Radcliffe First and a single Independent member.
This year three councillors will be elected for each of the 17 wards. The Conservatives will be hoping to make gains and have been campaigning on issues such as the clean air zone and green belt protection. Any significant gains by hyperlocal party Radcliffe First could be significant and they are fielding candidates for all nine seats in the town. Two Conservative candidates have been dropped by the party of 'anti-Semitic' tweets.
There's a declaration time of Friday evening as a result of the all-out election.
Bolton: The only Tory-led council in Greater Manchester.
Bolton is another key test for Labour in Greater Manchester, but here it is hoping to take back control from the Conservatives, who have run a minority administration since 2019. Bolton is the only Greater Manchester borough currently led by the Conservatives although they do so by relying on an agreement with smaller parties. They are currently the largest party on the council with 22 councillors, Labour have 17 and the Liberal Democrats five.
That leaves 16 other councillors made up of independents and hyperlocal parties such as Horwich and Blackrod First and Farnworth and Kearsley First. Only a third of the 60 seats are up for election this week which makes it unlikely that there will be massive shifts in the number of councillors for each party.
To become the biggest party Labour would have to gain at least three seats from the Conservatives. It is likely that whichever party has the most councillors on Friday morning they will need to form some kind of agreement with smaller parties to form an administration.
When gaining power in 2019 the Tories did this with both the Liberal Democrats and Horwich and Blackrod First members. However, the co-operation between Conservatives and both of those parties has broken down since leaving an unclear picture going into Thursday's poll. Key issues in the borough are the clean air zone for the region and future town centre regeneration.
Oldham: Labour hold 40 seats, making any change to the overall control of the council look unlikely.
Council leader Arooj Shah has certainly had a tumultuous first year. The Labour councillor has come under fire for delivering lofty ambitions, but failing to nail anything concrete down. That's a charge Ms Shah, the first female Muslim council leader in the North, has accepted herself. At a February meeting of the council, coun Shah admitted 'for too long there's been all talk and no action' - but said things would change. "Not any more," she continued at that meeting on a plan to regenerate the town's centre.
Coun Shah has also faced personal threats to her own life, too. Last July, her car was firebombed in an arson attack, which also destroyed a nearby property. In response, she said she 'would not be diverted from the task in hand', with every other major party on the council condemning the attack. And the pressure has continued. Coun Shah is contesting her Chadderton South seat against Lib Dem Joe Beeston and Conservative Robert Barnes - with a lot of campaigning focused on that ward.
Only last year then council leader Sean Fielding lost out to the Failsworth Independent Party, which opened the door for Coun Shah to take the top job. Away from Chadderton South, other issues are swirling around Oldham. One is the green belt, which is a concern in areas like Royton and Shaw. There are also long-running delays in publishing a review into how various public sector bodies dealt with child sexual exploitation across the borough, with 'significant evidence' coming forward in March leading to another setback.
With those borough-wide issues, there are also debates at a hyper-local level in places like Saddleworth and Failsworth on certain issues. Alongside those concerns is the national cost of living crisis, which caused Tory Sahr Abid to resign her seat in March.
Labour has 40 seats, making a change to the overall control of the council look unlikely. Yet, the left used to have more. Following the 2019 vote, Labour had 45 seats, Lib Dems took home eight, independents won in three wards, and the Conservatives held on to four. Going back another year, Labour had even more. Then, the ruling party had more than three-quarters of the seats, with 47. The Lib Dems and Conservatives both had eight and four respectively, with just one independent candidate winning out.
In the 2019 general election, both Labour MPs held on to their seats. Debbie Abrahams, representing Oldham East & Saddleworth, took home 43.5 percent of the vote — but that was 11 percent less than she polled in 2017. It was a similar story for Jim McMahon, in Oldham West & Royton, who won 55 percent of the vote, but this was down 10 percent on the previous election.
Stockport: Parties braced for another tightly-fought battle.
Ever the political hot potato, Stockport remains as complex as ever as traditionally Manchester's most tightly-contested council. The council is currently run by Labour despite the Lib Dems emerging as the largest group at last year's local elections. Labour kept hold of the reins as the Conservatives and other opposition groups refused to oust leader Coun Elise Wilson before the end of her term. As things stand Labour holds 25 of the council’s 63 seats, with the Lib Dems just ahead on 26.
It means another tense election night lies ahead, with the eight strong Tory group again likely to be in a 'kingmaker' position once all the votes are in. Behind the scenes deals - and possibly another crunch councillor vote - may be needed before anything is settled.
All eyes are sure to be on Cheadle Hulme North - the borough's bellwether seat - for an indication of which way the electoral wind is blowing. Back in 2018 Coun David Meller - now Labour’s cabinet member for economy - won the seat by just two votes, with the result taking no fewer than three recounts.
He remains the ward's lone Labour councillor - with the other two seats taken by the Lib Dems - and will need to fend off the challenge of Michael Hannon (Lib Dem), Brian Dougal (Conservative) and Michael Padfield (Green) to ensure that remains the case. Stepping Hill again looks to be a three-way fight between Labour, Lib Dems and the Tories. Coun Rory Leonard’s victory last year was one of few bright spots on what was a disappointing night for Labour.
But whether his party colleague Christine Carrigan or Lib Dem candidate Pete West are able to oust Conservative incumbent Coun John Wright remains to be seen. Offerton could be another tightly fought Labour/Lib Dem contest, Joe Barratt finishing a narrow second last year.
Conservative Coun Oliver Johnstone returned to the council last year at the expense of the Lib Dems - but Coun Paul Ankers will be fighting hard to defend his seat and fend off another Tory gain at this election. Last year’s biggest shock was the Greens Coun Gary Lawson defeating Yvonne Guariento to take Reddish South. And with Con Jude Wells, cabinet member for adult social care, standing down, there is a possibility Labour could be vulnerable again in this ward.
Manor also looks to be hotly contested between Labour, who currently hold the seat and the Lib Dems. Another intriguing clash contest is in Davenport and Cale Green where Labour leader Coun Elise Wilson comes up against one of her staunchest critics - John Pearson of Stockport Fights Austerity No to Cuts.
Rochdale: Could 'all-out' election change the political landscape?
Rochdale's political landscape could be radically transformed in the borough's first 'all out' election since 2004. The borough is made up of 20 wards, each represented by three councillors who serve four year terms before standing down or seeking re-election. This time a boundary shake-up means every seat is up for election and every councillor - from the leader to opposition back-benchers - needs the backing of voters if they want to hold on to theirs.
At present the council is dominated by Labour, who have 44 councillors, followed by the Tories on 11 and the Lib Dems on 4. Kath Nickson, the only independent, is not standing at this election.
While it would no doubt be a massive shock should Labour lose control of the council, opposition groups will also be hopeful of having a bigger say in the year ahead. Labour will naturally be worried that the Clean Air Zone controversy could have an impact at the ballot box, although a similar outcry over the 'Places for Everyone' development plan last year appeared to do them little harm.
However, opponents are sure to look to capitalise on a 3.6pc council tax rise which came into force earlier this month. There will be similar concerns for the Tories, who will be nervously waiting to see if voters will punish them for the 'partygate' scandal and the growing cost of living crisis.
That could leave the door open for the Lib Dems, who are fielding more candidates than the Conservatives this time round, building on some solid campaigning in their target areas. One place the Lib Dems may expect to do well in is Spotland and Falinge, where Rabina Asghar ran Labour’s Iram Faisal close to finish second last year. Another key Labour/Lib Dem battleground could be North Heywood, where it is a straight shootout between the two parties. Each is fielding three candidates, with no other party involved in the contest.
Privately, local Tories concede that national headwinds are not in their favour, but remain reasonably confident of holding on to what they have. They also expect to do well in Littleborough Lakeside and believe gains could be made in Castleton or the Heywood and Middleton wards. There is also a new kid on the block this year, in the form of Middleton Independents Party (MIP). Only officially registered with the Electoral Commission last month, the party is fielding three candidates in all five Middleton wards - including Hopwood Hall.
Manchester: The country's largest Labour group under a new era.
Only three of the 96 councillors belong to other parties in Manchester, leaving the ruling Labour group firmly in control of the council. But unexpected wins for the Lib Dems and the Greens over the last 12 months have exposed a chink in the armour of the country's largest Labour group, which faces its first local elections under new leadership for a quarter of a century.
Sir Richard Leese, who oversaw Labour's most dominant days at the town hall, stepped down in December, making way for his deputy Bev Craig to take over. She has visited all 32 council wards since becoming leader – but as the local elections approach, campaigning has been focused on the key battlegrounds.
There are three contests which Labour sources say are still 'too close to call' and another two typically tight races which they are less concerned about. The Lib Dems are hoping to secure a second seat in the Ancoats and Beswick ward on the back of their surprising success at a by-election earlier this year. But they must avoid another defeat to Labour in Didsbury West if their longest serving councillor - first elected 25 years ago - is to hold onto his swing seat.
Last May, the Greens won their first Manchester council seat since 2008 and all of their efforts are now aimed at securing a second in Woodhouse Park. Across the city, Labour campaigners say national issues - such as the cost of living crisis - have been most prominent in their conversations with voters. Partygate has helped mobilise Labour voters, with older people in particular expressing anger about the Conservative government, Labour sources say.
However, the Conservatives are not contenders in any of the key target seats, so this line of attack has limited impact in wooing voters to switch to Labour. And the 'shenanigans' in Westminster are said to have put some people off politics altogether which might affect the city's already typically low turnout. The Lib Dems claim to be the credible alternative to the two major parties and hope to capitalise on apathy among voters who feel let down by Labour locally.
They have the momentum in Ancoats and Beswick following February's by-election win and believe they have gained even more support since then. But since losing there, Labour have been out in force, hoping to stem the flow. Senior Labour sources boast their campaign to unseat long-serving Lib Dem John Leech in Didsbury West is their biggest and the data 'looks good' so far.
However, others say they would be surprised if Labour secured a second consecutive win in the ward where Lib Dem sources say it will not be close. Despite losing by a larger margin last year, when the 'Burnham bounce' in the mayoral elections is believed to have benefited the ruling group, the Lib Dems usually give Labour a run for their money in Withington and Didsbury East.
But Labour sources say they are not concerned about losing these seats. Woodhouse Park, where Labour lost to the Greens last year, will be another one to watch as both parties throw everything at the ward in Wythenshawe. Green Party sources say there are far more posters in windows supporting their side, but Labour are confident that their candidate is respected locally. However, demographic shifts in the ward where Manchester Airport is located and many of its workers call home make this result even harder to predict.
Tameside: Labour will be hopeful of maintaining its iron grip.
The council is currently dominated by Labour, who hold 51 of its 57 seats, with the remainder taken by the five-strong Conservative group and a lone Green.
Despite Labour’s stranglehold on the authority, councillors in the Hyde wards may fear a backlash from voters over the Clean Air Zone controversy, albeit the plan is now expected to be scrapped in its current form. The contentious Godley Green garden village plans could also cause a headache for Labour in the Hyde wards.
Council leader Brenda Warrington says the 2,000-home development 'will set an example', but more than 4,000 people have signed a petition against the scheme. Meanwhile, a leadership challenge within Labour is understood to have been bubbling away for sometime - with Coun Ged Cooney emerging as the figurehead for those who want a change at the top.
Some seats - including Ashton Hurst and Denton South - are a straight shootout between Labour and the Tories, with no other parties standing.
But the Conservatives will also be wary of voters using the local elections to signal their displeasure over national controversies such as ‘Partygate’, and the growing cost of living crisis. The Green Party - who are fielding candidates in all but six seats - will be hoping to capitalise on local and national discontent and increase their numbers on the council.
They are not the only minority party looking to make an impact on May 5, however. Reform UK has Barbara Mitchison standing in Denton North East, while Hattie Thomas will fly the flag for the Women's Equality Party in Mossley.
Trafford: Any change after the 'only good news story' for Labour last year would be a major surprise.
Labour bucked the national trend in Trafford 12 months ago - the borough was hailed as 'the only good news story for the party' in the country by its local leader after the town hall election of May, 2021. Any real change this time around would come as a major surprise - currently the council has 40 Labour councillors under leader Andrew Western, 16 Conservative councillors, three Liberal Democrat councillors and three Green councillors.
The party retained overall control of the council last year, holding all of its seats and snatching four from the Conservatives in Ashton upon Mersey, Davyhulme East and West and Flixton. The Green Party, meanwhile, held Altrincham with former group leader Geraldine Coggins and came ever closer to gaining a seat in Tory-strong hold Hale Central. The Greens, alongside Labour and the Lib Dems, are hoping they'll be able to challenge the Conservatives in Hale Central and Hale Barns once again this year. Hale Central was created as a ward in 2004 and has been Conservative since its inception.
The Liberal Democrats and Greens came second and third respectively at the 2019 local election there, with just 43 votes between them. Last year, the Greens came within touching distance of gaining the Tory strong-hold, with their candidate Jane Leicester narrowly missing out. Hale Barns ward will also be one to watch this year - it has also been Conservative since time immemorial, but the other three major parties are hunting down votes and a possible seat there, too.
Across all of the four major parties in Trafford, heavy-hitters are up to fight for their seats this year. For the Conservatives, group leader Nathan Evans is hoping to be re-elected in Timperley and shadow executive member for leisure Dylan Butt is hoping to retain his seat in Hale Barns. For the Greens, their group leader Daniel Jerrome is fighting for his seat again in Altrincham.
For Labour, executive member for leisure Liz Patel will be hoping to be re-elected in Sale Moor, executive member for communities Graham Whitham is standing again in Davyhulme West, executive member for health Jane Slater is fighting for her seat in Stretford, head of the licensing committee David Jarman is hoping to be re-elected in Longford and the head of scrutiny committee David Acton is up again for his Gorse Hill seat, which he has held since 1988.
For the Liberal Democrats, former Greater Manchester mayoral candidate Simon Lepori is returning, hoping to win a seat in Hale Barns.
Salford: Labour hold 52 out of 60 council seats.
Labour have a tight grip on the socialist stronghold that is Salford council – but some close contests are expected. The ruling group currently hold 52 out of the 60 seats at the council while the Conservatives have seven with only one up for election.Salford's only Lib Dem councillor - Andrew Walters who was elected last year - has now left the party to run as an independent in Kersal and Broughton Park.
Last year, the Tories hoped to win all three council seats in this ward which is home to a large Orthodox Jewish community, but only managed to retain two. After pulling off a shock victory for the Lib Dems in 2021, Coun Walters will need to beat the Tories and Labour to keep his seat in this three-horse race – although Labour sources admit they are the least likely to win of the three.
Labour also secured a surprising win in Worsley and Westwood Park last year. Once comfortable territory for the Conservatives, the addition of Westwood Park to this ward in 2021 helped Labour councillor Tony Davies win a seat. However, having come third at the all-out election last year, he will have to defend that seat which the Tories are 'quietly confident' about winning back.
The Conservatives say the green belt and the Clean Air Zone are the big issues in this ward where Labour sources says the result is expected to be 'tight'. Next door in Boothstown and Ellenbrook, Salford's Tory group leader Les Turner came close to losing to Labour, beating them by less than 100 votes.
But the Conservative councillor who switched seats after moving outside the city's boundaries may have been affected by the 'Burnham bounce' which saw Labour benefit from the Greater Manchester mayor's popularity last year. The Lib Dems have been targeting the new Quays ward where their candidate Alex Warren was around 100 votes away from securing the third position.
But he was more than 400 votes away from first place and with only one seat available this time he must beat Labour councillor Phil Tresaden to come top. Walkden South was jointly the closest contest at last year with Labour's Irfan Syed beating Conservative candidate Lewis Croden by six votes in the end.
Labour sources say they are 'miles ahead' here, while the Conservatives say they have an 'outside chance' of securing a seat in this once Tory-held ward. Core Independents came equally close to winning a seat in Cadishead and Lower Irlam last year, losing by just six votes while in Higher Irlam and Peel Green they lost by a massive margin and their only councillor was unseated.
But for the first time since 2018, the independent group which won support after campaigning against developing Chat Moss has no candidates standing. The Greens came closest to winning a seat in the new Blackfriars and Trinity ward at the last local elections and came second at a by-election in November.
Labour expect Coun Roseanna Wain to retain the seat which she won with more than half of the votes from a historically low turnout of just 10.1 pc. Together with the Lib Dems, Labour have a candidate standing for each seat, but the Conservatives failed to field candidates in four of the council wards. The Greens have 16 candidates standing in total, while the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, Women’s Equality Party and Britain First each have one too.
Wigan: No wards changed hands in 2021.
The local elections in Wigan do not seem an exciting prospect on the surface given the fact no wards changed hands in 2021 with Labour dominating. However, there are certain wards which could swing with the rise in cries for change from voters. Going back to May 2021 the Conservatives came closest to taking a Labour seat in the Leigh South ward where Kevin Anderson retained his spot with 1,695 votes to Joshua Yates’ 1,423. Mr Yates is looking to get into the council for Leigh South yet again this year but will come up against a formidable opponent in Charles Rigby who has been serving as councillor for the ward since 2000.
The fact that the closest the Conservatives got to claiming a Labour ward was by 272 votes is indicative of Labour’s dominance. Orrell is a ward that Labour could increase their stranglehold on Wigan Council and oust Conservative leader Michael Winstanley though who is up for re-election after retaining his seat last year by a margin of 171 votes. Councillor Winstanley is an experienced councillor though and well known in his ward having served on the council between 2000 and 2011 and then 2016 until present, so he will be a difficult candidate to beat for Dave Wood of Labour and Co-operative and Neil Stevenson of the Liberal Democrats.
Another big name up for re-election is Coun Susan Gambles, portfolio holder for housing and welfare. Despite only serving as a councillor since 2018, she became a cabinet member quickly after winning her seat by 668 votes (57.2 per cent of the overall vote).
This election is not all about the battle between red and blue though with the Independent Alliance providing a strong opposition to Labour on their own, showing the continuing trend away from traditional politics in Wigan. The Independent Network, who work in conjunction with Independent councillors Bob Brierley, Andrew Collinson, and Sylvia Wilkinson are looking to get three more councillors into power and keep Coun Stuart Gerrard in Atherton.
Natasha Hodgkinson is hoping for election in Atherleigh, James Richardson is targeting Bryn, and Deborah Lloyd is looking to claim Hindley Green. Gaining those wards would see the Independent Alliance gain more seats than the Conservative and Shevington Alliance. Coun Gerrard is looking to keep a clean sweep of Independent Network councillors in Atherton.
Both his peers in the ward Coun Paul Watson and Coun Jamie Hodgkinson have scored comfortable majorities in their last elections, just like Coun Gerrard back in 2018 - making it a stronghold for the group. Heading into the election on May 5, Labour control 57 seats in Wigan Council, Conservative and Shevington Alliance hold nine, and the Independent Alliance hold seven.
