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Belfast Live

Sport

David Yates

Grand National tips 2023: This outsider could land the odds at Aintree

Aintree (Facility) National (Event) Grand National Rachael Blackmore Larne Tyrone

Gabbys Cross can add his name to a long list of shock Grand National winners by landing the 175th running of the world’s greatest steeplechase at Aintree.

Outsiders have held sway in this most unpredictable puzzle in recent years, with scorers at 66-1, 50-1, 33-1 (twice) and 25-1 (twice) in the past 10 runnings.

And Gabbys Cross, whose Co Waterford-based trainer Henry de Bromhead saddled a National 1-2 when Minella Times and Rachael Blackmore led home 100-1 shot Balko Des Flos two years ago, fits the bill to come up with another turn-up.

The eight-year-old captured a big prize over two and three-quarter miles at the Galway Festival last July, and has strong form in handicap chases since.

Gabbys Cross finished fifth in the Kerry National at Listowel in September – keeping on over the three-mile distance – and again was doing his best work in the closing stages when sixth in a red-hot race at Leopardstown over Christmas.

My selection was below his best behind this afternoon’s rival Carefully Selected in the big-money Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park in January but there was more to like about his strong-at-the-finish third in another National – the Leinster National – at Naas last time out.

Additional staying power is required for this four-mile, two-furlong and 74-yard distance, but Gabbys Cross shapes as though he will last home.

The Irish challenger is prone to make the odd mistake, but the National is less of a jumping test since plastic cores replaced the old timber fences 11 years ago, and his weight of 10st 2lb leaves Gabbys Cross a lot closer to the bottom of the handicap than the top.

With Blackmore opting to partner the gambled-on favourite Ain’t That A Shame for boss de Bromhead, Peter Carberry comes in for the mount.

The ride is Carberry’s first in the race, but don’t let that put you off – this century, Ruby Walsh (Papillon, 2000), Niall Madden (Numbersixvalverde, 2006), the late Liam Treadwell (Mon Mone, 2009), Ryan Mania (Auroras Encore, 2013), David Mullins (Rule The World, 2015) and Derek Fox (One For Arthur, 2017), have all profited from beginner’s luck.

Rachael Blackmore rides Ain't That A Shame (Image: Jon Super/AP/REX/Shutterstock)

The latest National surprise came via Noble Yeats – the last four runnings have all gone to Ireland – at 50-1 in 2022.

The defending champion is back for more, but is 19lb higher in the handicap than 12 months ago – and so more is needed.

Weight could also be an issue for Any Second Now, second to Noble Yeats on the back of an unlucky-in-running third in 2021 – the last horse to give his rivals weight and a beating was the legendary Red Rum when he landed the race for the second time 49 years ago.

Noble Yeats was the first seven-year-old to triumph since Bogskar in 1940, and of the sextet of that vintage to take part this year, Capodanno – Ireland’s champion trainer Willie Mullins also saddles Carefully Selected, Gaillard Du Mesnil, Mr Incredible and Recite A Prayer – has the most convincing credentials.

Compatriots Roi Mage and Vanillier look strong stayers, a comment that also applies to the Gordon Elliott-saddled pair Delta Work and Galvin.

Scotland’s Corach Rambler is 10lb well in on official figures after his repeat Ultima Handicap Chase win at Cheltenham last month and must be respected, while Le Milos appeals most of the English contingent.