The Grammy Awards are notorious for getting it wrong. Over the years, the Recording Academy has caused uproar as it either snubs those artists deemed most deserving or goes with a rogue choice that no one saw coming. This means that each year it’s really anyone’s guess, no matter how much of a certainty an artist might seem.
In 2025, the “big four” categories of Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Song of the Year and Best New Artist are as competitive as ever, with breakthrough pop stars Chappell Roan and Sabrina Carpenter muscling up against heavyweights like Taylor Swift and Beyoncé.
Pioneering British artist Charli XCX and groundbreaking, Pulitzer Prize-winning rapper Kendrick Lamar are up against The Beatles; UK singer and Grammys first-timer RAYE is competing with viral stars Benson Boone and Teddy Swims.
Ahead of the ceremony in Los Angeles on Sunday 2 February, here’s a look at the runners and riders for the big four categories at the Grammys.
Record of the Year
The Beatles - “Now and Then”
Beyoncé - “Texas Hold ’Em”
Sabrina Carpenter - “Espresso”
Charli XCX - “360”
Billie Eilish - “Birds of a Feather”
Kendrick Lamar - “Not Like Us”
Chappell Roan - “Good Luck, Babe!”
Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone - “Fortnight”
A reminder for the uninitiated: the Record of the Year prize is distinguished from Song of the Year by recognising the artists, producers and engineers who contributed to the recording, while Song of the Year deals more with the composition and recognises the songwriters behind the track. That said, most people – voters included – don’t often find much meaningful difference between the two.
If we are following those Grammy guidelines, though, The Beatles could be a controversial win due to the use of AI technology to retrieve the vocal and instrument stems of a muddled recording by John Lennon at his piano in the years before his death. It’s certainly clever, perhaps even groundbreaking, and The Beatles’ status alone could help to sway voters.
However, there’s plenty of competition from Kendrick Lamar’s slick and sharp “Not Like Us”, a Monk Higgins’-sampling diss track aimed at fellow hip-hop star Drake that served – to many – as the killshot in their longstanding feud. Charli XCX’s “360”, the second single from her critically adored album Brat, incorporates hyperpop and electropop fizz from regular collaborators AG Cook and Cirkut.
Grammys favourites Taylor Swift, Billie Eilish and Beyoncé are all in the mix: Swift with her gloomy, Eighties-influenced “Fortnight” ft Post Malone, Eilish with her sleeper hit “Birds of a Feather”, and Beyoncé with “Texas Hold ’Em”, her foray into country music.
Relative newcomer Chappell Roan is nominated for her runaway hit, the shuffly, squelchy baroque-synth bop “Good Luck, Babe!”, while her fellow breakthrough star, Sabrina Carpenter, feels like a potential shoo-in thanks to “Espresso”, a shot of perfectly produced pop.
Should win: Kendrick Lamar - “Not Like Us”
Will win: Sabrina Carpenter - “Espresso”
Song of the Year
“A Bar Song (Tipsy)” - Sean Cook, Jerrell Jones, Joe Kent, Collins Obinna Chibueze, Nevin Sastry and Mark Williams - songwriters (Shaboozey)
“Birds of a Feather” - Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell - songwriters (Billie Eilish)
“Die with a Smile” - Dernst Emile II, James Fauntleroy, Lady Gaga, Bruno Mars and Andrew Watt - songwriters (Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars)
“Fortnight” - Jack Antonoff, Austin Post and Taylor Swift - songwriters (Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone)
“Good Luck, Babe!” - Kayleigh Rose Amstutz, Daniel Nigro and Justin Tranter - songwriters (Chappell Roan)
“Not Like Us” - Kendrick Lamar - songwriter (Kendrick Lamar)
“Please Please Please” - Amy Allen, Jack Antonoff and Sabrina Carpenter - songwriters (Sabrina Carpenter)
“Texas Hold ‘Em” - Brian Bates, Beyoncé, Elizabeth Lowell Boland, Megan Bülow, Nate Ferraro and Raphael Saadiq - songwriters (Beyoncé)
As usual, there’s plenty of overlap in this category with the Song of the Year group. Instead of “Espresso”, though, Carpenter is competing with her latest album’s fizzy second single “Please Please Please”, in which she asks/warns her bad boy lover not to embarrass her.
Elsewhere, Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars’s Billboard 100-topping smash “Die with a Smile” could cause a big upset if it wins over the likes of Lamar.
Fans might remember that Mars has previous with the Compton rapper, having scooped him for the coveted Album of the Year prize in 2018 when many believed Lamar should have won for his critically adored fourth record, DAMN.
Will win: Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Should win: Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Best New Artist
Benson Boone
Sabrina Carpenter
Doechii
Raye
Chappell Roan
Shaboozey
Khruangbin
Teddy Swims
These days, Best New Artist categories tend to feel embarrassingly out-of-touch considering the rapid pace of music consumption in the age of streaming. Still, both Chappell Roan and Sabrina Carpenter would be worthy contenders after their huge breakthroughs in 2024, ditto Raye – the sole British contender on this year’s list – who swept the Brit Awards in a fairytale evening last March.
Really, it should go to Doechii, the Tampa, Florida-born rapper, who so far has not missed with superb tracks such as “Denial is a River” and “Alter Ego” ft JT. Texas psych-rock trio Khruangbin released their debut album a decade ago – hopefully voters aren’t that behind the times.
Then there’s the TikTok trio: Shaboozey, Teddy Swims and Benson Boone, whose respective singles “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”, “Lose Control” and “Beautiful Things” have been virtually inescapable on the platform for the last 12 months.
Will win: Chappell Roan
Should win: Doechii
Album of the Year
André 3000 - New Blue Sun
Beyoncé - Cowboy Carter
Sabrina Carpenter - Short n’ Sweet
Charli XCX - Brat
Jacob Collier - Djesse Vol 4
Billie Eilish - Hit Me Hard and Soft
Chappell Roan - The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess
Taylor Swift - The Tortured Poets Department
Beyoncé fans will be holding their breath yet again to see if the Cowboy Carter artist finally takes home AOTY. Despite holding the record for the artist with the most Grammy wins (32, if you were wondering), she’s also been snubbed on more than one occasion for the album and Record of the Year prizes.
This year, she’s got some fierce competition: Taylor Swift is eyeing up what would be a record-breaking fifth Album of the Year win for The Tortured Poets Department, and could also become the first female artist to win the prize in consecutive years (Stevie Wonder and Frank Sinatra are the only ones to achieve this feat before).
Instead of handing over the award to a pop juggernaut, though, Grammys voters might prefer to acknowledge the slow-burning success of Chappell Roan’s brilliant debut, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess, or indeed Sabrina Carpenter’s breakthrough sixth album, Short n’ Sweet. If they’re feeling particularly Brat, they could go for Charli XCX’s neon-green club classic, which reached a very respectable No 3 in the US albums chart. Grammys darling Billie Eilish would be a more obvious (read: boring) win with her third record, Hit Me Hard and Soft.
Another Brit, music prodigy Jacob Collier, would be a more controversial win should the Grammys decide to honour a male artist over the pop queens who dominated 2024. He’s another favourite among the Recording Academy, despite a somewhat ambivalent critical reception to his contender, Djesse Vol 4. Another potential upset could be André 3000’s divisive flute-led album – his first full-length release in 20 years – New Blue Sun.
Will win: Beyoncé
Should win: Chappell Roan
