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Football London
Football London
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Tom Coley

Graham Potter faces Jose Mourinho Chelsea embarrassment in record breaking run amid sack fears

Chelsea are nearly in the bottom half of the table. After 24 games it is just goal difference that separates them with 11th place Aston Villa.

With a tough run of games until the end of the season there are - albeit slightly overblown - fears that the club could be drawn into a relegation battle. Having not beaten a top half side yet this season and with seven of the nine teams above them in the league still to be played, the worry that things may not get better is justified.

In fact, from a possible 33 points against top half sides, Chelsea have taken just five points from those matches. To make it worse, they still have away matches against the top three to play.

READ MORE: Todd Boehly told to make Graham Potter Chelsea sack decision after Tottenham defeat

The gap to 18th is 10 points. They're 14 adrift of fourth placed Tottenham after the latest loss, a 2-0 defeat away to their north London rivals. Although the plight of those below them is much worse, plus Southampton and Bournemouth in particular have struggled this season despite the condensed nature of the table, Chelsea are as out of form as any team going.

The actual likelihood of Chelsea being spoken about in this dog fight is low. There is precedent though. When Jose Mourinho was sacked in December 2015 he left the Blues 16th in the table after 16 games. They had taken 15 points in that time with a -8 goal difference. Graham Potter has had 18 games in charge at Stamford Bridge and has 21 points.

On a points per game basis that is 0.93 compared to just 1.16. It's not much to shout about. Perhaps what is even more worrying than that is that since November (a sample size of 12 games) Chelsea have just 10 points. Add in two extra cup losses and things are bleak.

Thomas Tuchel managed six games this season (a quarter of their current matches in the league) and had 10 points. They scored eight goals in those games, that is 34% of the goals for the league season.

There is no sugar coating just how bad this has been for Chelsea and for Potter. The current run of form is one win in 11 but that stretches back to a still not so flattering three wins in 16. There is a clear divider here too. Potter was unbeaten in his first nine matches in charge and threatened to get to 10 but lost 4-1 at former club Brighton. Since then Chelsea have scored six goals in 12 games, losing six.

Under Potter they have scored the fewest of any side in the league since he came in (15). Of the 25 goals scored under him in all competitions (in 26 games) 17 came in the first month. 20% of the goals in his reign came in a one week period across two matches against AC Milan in October. Add in the 3-0 win against Wolves in the middle and nearly a third came across three matches.

Even in 2015/16 Chelsea scored 59 goals, they are on course to get less than 40 in this campaign. When the facts are laid bare they are dire.

Even the slightest glimpse of improvement, four games unbeaten at the end of January, has since been slashed away with defeats to bottom placed Southampton and rivals Tottenham. Potter, as he himself said, doesn't have much to fall back on right now. The underlying numbers were on an upward trend before last weekend but even the few that were clinging to that hope have been dashed of much to praise.

To compound things Potter's 35% win ratio is the lowest since Glenn Hoddle in 1993. There are 18 different managerial roles between them accounting for interims, caretakers and multiple spells. Things really don't get much better than that though. Only twice (2015 and 2012, both preceeded by managerial sackings) have Chelsea picked up just three points from any six game run and it is back in 1993 when they last had a run that was as bad as this.

Hoddle lost six straight games and also got just one point in a wider run of eight games, that became worse and finished at two points from nine games. Should Potter get to that stage then even more serious questions would have to be asked. As it happens, their squad is undoubtedly full of talented players but there is baggage holding them down.

In a period of unprecedented turnover of staff and players, following on from an ownership last year, it is hard to see who would have been right for the job. Potter, who had less pressure at Brighton and less expectation to transform the team, not once was under this level of scrutiny.

His methods, which Todd Boehly and Co hoped would help Chelsea transition from ageing squad and tired foundations to modern club with new structure, have never been tested in an environment like this. Very few managers have ever had this much change, it is in memory a unique situation and one that is as far away from the haven of Brighton security as one gets.

Now what Chelsea need is a firefighting manager to get them some points but that raises questions and asks things of Potter he hasn't done before, certainly not at this level. Within all this is a man who is trying to put an end to the rut. Having tried old players, new players and a mixture there is no way to get the baby and the bath water to go. It's too late for that. With a 33-man squad there's no easy answers and no short cuts.

During the World Cup he managed just four senior players that are currently in the squad. There are an additional four outsiders which includes three teenagers and a backup goalkeeper on that list. Many were injured and the rest were in Qatar. There was a point at which Chelsea could field an XI of injured players and now there are seven new first teamers to add into the mix.

Even for a man with an emotional intelligence degree, this is a serious challenge.

It's a perfect storm with him at the middle and although Chelsea fans couldn't imagine things getting much worse, they very well might. Confidence has been drained from the squad and the factors of injuries, moral, bloated squad, tactical changes, new players and much more all makes it tough to see just where the problem is.

Any new manager would inherit many of Potter's problems too. That's a hard sell, even for the best businessmen.

The plates are being thrown at Potter from all over the shop and things are crashing around him. Where this ends up is now anyone's guess. The run has gone on longer and been worse than many thought it could. Perceived wisdom says he should be sacked but the owners threw that rulebook out when they arrived. How far their patience can be stretched is unknown.

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