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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow and Nicola Slawson

Boris Johnson no-confidence vote: prime minister wins by 211 to 148 but 40% of Tory MPs fail to back him – as it happened

Graham Brady Boris Johnson Tory 1922 Committee Paul Brand Lucy Fisher

Evening summary

Here’s a roundup of the key developments from this evening:

  • Boris Johnson was clinging to his premiership on Monday night after 148 of his MPs voted to oust him from Downing Street in a ballot that exposed potentially fatal rifts within his party. The prime minister won the support of 211 MPs but 41% of his party voted to get rid of him. It was the worst verdict on a sitting prime minister by their own party in recent times.
  • In a clip for broadcasters Boris Johnson has described the result as “good news” because, he claimed, it would allow the government to put Partygate behind it and to focus on “what we as a government are doing to help people”. He insisted it was an “extremely good” result despite a worse performance than Theresa May in her confidence vote.
  • Keir Starmer said it was “grotesque” that Tory MPs voted to support someone with no sense of duty. He said: “The Conservative party now believes that breaking the law is no impediment to making the law. The Conservative party now believes that the British public have no right to expect honest politicians.”
  • Starting an instant spin operation outside the room where the result was announced, the Foreign Office minister James Cleverly called it “a comfortable win” and said rebels should now give up on their efforts. Meanwhile, Nadhim Zahawi, the education secretary, told Sky News that Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, would be “punching the air” tonight because his ally, Boris Johnson, will remain as PM.
  • Tory rebels have vowed to keep trying to force Boris Johnson from office, as the prime minister’s allies admitted he was reaching “the beginning of the end” after a devastating result in Monday night’s confidence vote. They will hold his feet to the fire as the next Partygate inquiry – into whether the prime minister misled parliament by denying any Covid rules were broken in Downing Street – gets under way in the coming weeks.

My colleague Jessica Elgot has written about how the day of infighting played out.

We are closing this liveblog shortly. Thanks so much for joining us.

Our liveblog on the Russia-Ukraine war is still live and you can follow it here:

Updated

Boris Johnson’s allies had always said about the vote of no confidence that victory by just one vote was still a win, and he would remain in Downing Street and get on with delivering “the people’s priorities”.

They will no doubt be cracking opening the bubbly on Monday evening. But the truth is that with 148 votes against him, the task of governing is likely to become more, not less difficult in the weeks and months ahead.

As rebel MPs determined to oust him are likely to point out at the earliest opportunity, those 148 rebels dramatically outnumber Johnson’s working majority of 75.

While they are not a coherent group of zealots, of the kind that ultimately saw off Theresa May over Brexit policy, his detractors do share a set of concerns they may now feel emboldened to pursue more vocally – including by withholding their support in the voting lobbies.

Some are irked by the fact the government is on a trajectory towards the highest tax burden since Clement Attlee was in power.

Others have spoken out in recent months about the illiberal nature of Johnson’s government, which has become more marked in recent months as he tried to appease the right wing of his party after his position appeared under threat in January.

The former minister Jesse Norman – biographer of the Conservative intellectual hero Edmund Burke – pointed in his blistering letter on Monday to the plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda, and the ban on noisy protests.

Yet more MPs are frustrated at the sense of drift and indecision in the face of a mounting economic crisis – or simply fear for their seats, with a party leader the public appear to be firmly convinced is a proven liar.

Johnson did little to win over the latter group at Monday’s 1922 Committee meeting, where he appeared unrepentant about Partygate, even telling MPs he would attend boozy lockdown leaving bashes again.

Afterwards, one ally delivered an extraordinarily tone deaf briefing to waiting journalists, asking them: “Is there anyone here who hasn’t got pissed in their lives? Is there anyone here who doesn’t like a glass of wine to decompress?”

It is just possible that the bullish Johnson is not feeling as bloody-minded as the briefing suggests, and after the humiliation of being booed outside St Paul’s on Friday, his fragile ego could finally get the better of him and prompt him to resign.

But most colleagues believe he is likely to remain in Downing Street, hoping to bulldoze his way through to the next general election.

Read the full story here:

Northern Ireland secretary Brandon Lewis said Conservative MPs must unite behind Boris Johnson and focus on “making people’s lives better”, after the prime minister survived a vote of confidence.

On why Johnson should remain in Number 10, Lewis told the PA news agency:

Quite simply, look, I’m a democrat, we have had a democratic vote, we had one in 2016, we have to finish delivering the work in Northern Ireland from my job, which comes from Brexit, which we voted for.

(In) 2019, the general public overwhelmingly gave Boris Johnson and our party the support, beyond anything we have seen since the height of Margaret Thatcher.

He has won the vote tonight, we have got to come back together now, focus on the job and be focused on making the people’s lives better tomorrow and in the future.

That’s what his focus is, that’s where all our focus should be.

Full story: Tory rebels vow to keep trying to topple Johnson after no-confidence vote win

Tory rebels have vowed to keep trying to force Boris Johnson from office, as the prime minister’s allies admitted he was reaching “the beginning of the end” after a devastating result in Monday night’s confidence vote.

Johnson’s struggle to hold his divided party together will become more intense, with some of the 148 MPs, or 40%, who voted against him said to be “implacably opposed” to his premiership.

They will hold his feet to the fire as the next Partygate inquiry – into whether the prime minister misled parliament by denying any Covid rules were broken in Downing Street – gets under way in the coming weeks.

Several rebel MPs boasted the government whipping operation had been “appalling” and appeared to collapse under the weight of Monday night’s rebellion, meaning Johnson was now on “borrowed time”.

The divide between those backing and opposing Johnson threatens to derail Downing Street’s attempts to draw a line under the humiliating episode.

Though the majority of Tory MPs supported the prime minister, a significant number voted to oust him in the secret ballot held by the 1922 Committee. The result had echoes of another confidence ballot in 2018, when Theresa May won the support of two-thirds of her party but was left irrevocably damaged.

Government sources insisted the margin of Johnson’s victory did not matter, with one cabinet minister saying “a win is a win”. They said that given the result, the rebels needed to either “change the rules or shut the fuck up”.

Other allies of Johnson said drastic action was needed to restore discipline, such as sacking anyone on the government payroll who remained conspicuously silent on Monday while colleagues tweeted their support.

Though MPs were forbidden from taking pictures of their ballot paper to prove they had voted to support the prime minister, many were told to make public statements.

Read more here:

The front pages of the papers have been released.

Unsurprisingly, Boris Johnson and the results of the confidence vote dominate the UK papers.

Here’s our splash:

Here are the others. The Telegraph calls the result a “hollow victory” that “tears Tories apart”.

The Daily Star, in a very colourful front page, have called Johnson Pinocchio.

The Daily Mirror, who helped break the news about Partygate, says simply: “Party’s over, Boris.”

The Metro went for the same messaging.

Meanwhile The Sun have dubbed the evening the “Night of the blond knives”.

Using a close up of Johnson looking deeply unhappy, the Times describes him as “A wounded victor”.

The i Paper also says he is wounded and that he is “in peril”.

The Daily Mail is the most supportive of the papers and says the 148 rebels have hit the “self destruct button” while the headlines reads: “Boris vows: I’ll bash on.”

Updated

It is “always disappointing” when there is a “significant minority of your own party voting in such a way”, the environment secretary, George Eustice, has said.

Speaking to the PA news agency on the result of the confidence vote, Eustice said:

The prime minister won this confidence vote, but, of course, it is always disappointing when you have a significant minority of your own party voting in such a way.

So, we have won this vote. We, as a party, we all stood on the same manifesto with the same legislative agenda. What we really need to do now is focus on mending fences, reconciling the party, pulling the party back together so we can all deliver what we were elected to do.

Eustice said the result “underlines that as a government we have got to work very hard to reconnect with our own parliamentary party to reunite them behind the agenda we were all elected to deliver”.

He added:

The prime minister has already started that process, decisions such as the appointment of Steve Barclay as his chief of staff have been a big change, only made only a few months ago and it will take time for that to filter through.

But I am aware of people today who said, although they were voting against the prime minister, had he made this change and had a different approach to the parliamentary party a year ago, they might have felt differently. We just need to keep doubling down on that work, reconnect with the party and make sure we go ahead together to deliver on the shared agenda.

Updated

Conservative former cabinet minister David Davis has said the confidence vote in Boris Johnson was “premature”.

Asked what he thought of the result, Davis said:

I am unsurprised. You will have heard me earlier saying this was a premature vote.

People used to say ‘have you put your letter in?’ I said ‘no, it’s not appropriate at this point in time because this was the predictable outcome’. We are now left with a slight limbo for a year. And, of course, we have still got the Privileges Committee hanging.

When asked if he concerned by the result, Davis told PA News:

No. The party has made its decision and, you know, it’s fair enough. It’s what I thought they would decide. I didn’t know what the majority would be but I thought he would win. And that’s the outcome we have got.

On Nadine Dorries’ claims that Johnson was being targeted by a “well-organised campaign”, Davis said:

I think I would know if it was organised. And no. Not at all. I think you probably got ten different factions. All the very different candidates. They will be talking to each other. So, no. It is almost a definition of disorganisation.

PA News has this report on the impact so-called payroll votes may have had on the results of the confidence vote.

As many as four in five of the MPs who backed Boris Johnson in the confidence vote may have been on the so-called government “payroll”.

Between 160 and 170 MPs currently hold government roles, such as ministers and parliamentary private secretaries, according to analysis by the Institute for Government.

It would be hoped by Downing Street that all of these MPs would have backed Johnson in the confidence vote.

Were this the case, around 80% of the 211 MPs who voted for the prime minister in Monday’s ballot could be said to have done so chiefly out of duty rather than loyalty.

The rest of the 211 MPs who said they had confidence in Johnson will have been backbench MPs who are not on the payroll.

But with as many as 170 payroll votes supporting the prime minister, the figures suggest only a few dozen non-payroll votes also voted in favour, implying that Johnson has lost the confidence of the majority of the Conservative backbenchers.

Boris Johnson insisted it was an “extremely good” result despite a worse performance than Theresa May in the confidence vote.

He told reporters in Downing Street:

I think it’s an extremely good, positive, conclusive, decisive result which enables us to move on, to unite and to focus on delivery and that is exactly what we are going to do.

He ruled out a snap election in order to gain a new mandate from the public, insisting he was focused on the public’s priorities.

The prime minister said:

I see no point in focusing on anything else and I’m certainly not interested in snap elections. What I’m interested in is delivering right now for the people of this country.

Nicola Sturgeon has pointed out that only only two of the 59 Scottish MPs have confidence in the prime minister.

She called Boris Johnson “an utterly lame duck” prime minister.

Here is my colleague Martin Kettle’s analysis of the results tonight.

He said:

After a snap contest whose abbreviated timetable was tailored to his advantage, Boris Johnson won the vote of confidence tonight only by 211 to 148 votes, with all 359 Conservative MPs casting ballots. It is a win, but it is also a disaster for the prime minister.

The real victor in the 2022 Tory leadership confidence vote was not Johnson. He is irreparably damaged. Politicians don’t recover from such things. Nor was the victor the Conservative party. The winners were the parties of opposition: Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and the nationalists.

That is because, with the unpopular Johnson losing his electoral allure but now reconfirmed, but only just, as Tory leader, the opposition parties are now on course to oust the Conservatives from office in the next general election. A new Tory leader might have had time to rebuild the party’s image. Johnson cannot do that.

Read more here:

The SNP’s leader in Westminster has said Douglas Ross’ position as the Scottish Tory leader is “completely untenable” after Boris Johnson won a vote of confidence.

Ian Blackford, after the result was announced, said:

Tory MPs should have drawn a line under Boris Johnson’s disastrous time as prime minister but instead they’ve bottled it – allowing this damaging circus to continue and leaving the Westminster government in crisis.

The UK is now stuck in limbo with a lame duck prime minister who has lost the confidence of the public – and more than forty per cent of his own MPs – and is left limping around on borrowed time while the Tory party descends into bitter division.

As for Douglas Ross, his position is completely untenable. If he had any principles or dignity he should quit as Scottish Tory leader. He has made himself look utterly ridiculous by flip-flopping over Boris Johnson’s future and will have no authority or credibility if he tries to cling on.

This is Nicola Slawson and I’m taking over from Andrew for the next few hours and will be covering the reaction to tonight’s results.

Starmer says voters now face choice between united Labour and divided Tory party

In a statement Keir Starmer for broadcasters said it was “grotesque” that Tory MPs voted to support someone with no sense of duty. He said:

Conservative MPs made their choice tonight.

They have ignored the British public and hitched themselves and their party firmly to Boris Johnson and all he represents.

The Conservative party now believes that good government focused on improving lives is too much to ask.

The Conservative party now believes that breaking the law is no impediment to making the law.

The Conservative party now believes that the British public have no right to expect honest politicians.

Over the weekend the whole country celebrated the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee.

It was a tribute to 70 years of humility, decency and respect.

A reminder of our common cause to build a better a country for ourselves, our children and our grandchildren.

It is grotesque that the very next day the Conservative party has chosen to throw that sense of duty and those values on the bonfire.

Starmer also said the choice in British politics was clearer than ever before. He said:

A Labour party united under my leadership with a plan to ensure Britain is never again plunged into a cost of living crisis, focused on growing the economy so that we can afford world class schools and hospitals, and determined to restore trust in politics.

Or a Conservative party that is divided, propping up Boris Johnson with no plan to tackle the issues facing you and your family.

I don’t claim that I or my party will get everything right, but I promise that when we don’t we will always be honest with you.

We will prioritise your prosperity and your security, and we will treat you with the respect you deserve from your politicians.

This sounds like an update of David Cameron’s famous tweet before the 2015 general election saying the country faced a choice between his strong and stable government or “chaos with Ed Miliband”. That turned out to be one of the most hopeless predictions in modern politics.

That is all from me for today. My collaegue Nicola Slawson is taking over now.

Updated

From my colleague Jessica Elgot

Here is my colleague John Crace’s sketch on today’s no-confidence vote.

And here is John’s conclusion.

At 9pm on the dot, Brady announced the result. 211 for, 148 against. As expected The Convict had won the vote but lost the leadership. Worse even than the Maybot back in 2018. Johnson would say he was going to hang on – he’s a bad loser – but there was no coming back from this. It may be weeks, it may be months but Boris is toast. And the Tories would spend the time fighting each other to the death. While the country is on its knees. At a standstill. What a legacy. Johnson must be so proud.

Johnson claims result is 'good news' because it will allow government to move on from Partygate

In a clip for broadcasters Boris Johnson has described the result as “good news” because, he claimed, it would allow the government to put Partygate behind it and to focus on “what we as a government are doing to help people”.

He said that he had the support of a greater proportion of his parliamentary colleagues than when he stood for the leadership in 2019.

Asked if he would rule out a snap election, Johnson sidestepped the question, and repeated the point about how he would now be able to focus on the issues important to him, not issues of interest to the media.

Pressed again about a snap election, he said he was “certainly not interested in snap elections”.

Boris Johnson
Boris Johnson Photograph: BBC News

Updated

Asked if this was the best possible result for the Labour party, David Lammy, the shadow foreign secretary, told Sky News that this was an issue that was beyond party politics and that Boris Johnson should have left office some time ago.

Many commentators would argue that this isn’t beyond party politics, and that in fact it is a terrific result for Labour.

Nadhim Zahawi, the education secretary, told Sky News that Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, would be “punching the air” tonight because his ally, Boris Johnson, will remain as PM tomorrow.

Starting an instant spin operation outside the room where the result was announced, the Foreign Office minister James Cleverly called it “a comfortable win” and said rebels should now give up on their efforts. He said:

I think the country would rightly be very upset if we as a party decided to ignore what the wider party said when they elected him leader, what the country said when they made him prime minister, and what the bulk of Conservative MP have now said today.

People have got to recognise, they didn’t get the vote of no confidence through, what they should now do is say, OK, we respect the democratic decision of the party, we’re going to support the prime minister getting on with his job.

Updated

What the result means - verdict from Twitter commentariat

This is what political journalists and commentators are saying about the result of the no-confidence ballot. There is a general consensus that, while Boris Johnson may have won, he has not done well enough to quash the turmoil surrounding his leadership.

From the BBC’s Chris Mason

From Sky’s Beth Rigby

From the Spectator’s James Forsyth

From Lucy Fisher from Times Radio

From the FT’s Jim Pickard

From the Mail on Sunday’s Dan Hodges

From Bloomberg’s Kitty Donaldson

From the Telegraph’s Christopher Hope

From Alan White from Politics Home

Boris Johnson’s allies think his critics should now accept the result and support Boris Johnson as leader going into the next election.

But Sir Roger Gale, one of the leading critics of Johnson, has just told Sky News that he will continue to oppose Johnson being party leader and continue to voice his opinion.

UPDATE: Gale said:

Unfortunately, the issue can’t be settled like that. Over a third of the parliamentary party has expressed no confidence in the prime minister ...

I don’t believe that he should take the party into the next general election and I think there are other elephant traps down the road - two by-elections coming up, the privileges committee report in the autumn - there are a lot of hurdles ahead and I think a prime minister of honour would look at the figures, accept the fact that he has lost the support of a significant proportion of his party and consider his position, but I don’t think he’ll do that.

Updated

This is from Rory Stewart, the former Tory international trade secretary who stood against Boris Johnson for the Tory leadership in 2019. Stewart subsequently left the party over Johnson’s Brexit policies.

But Steward is assuming that the payroll vote all supported Johnson. We don’t know that, and it seems unlikely. The 1922 Committee made an effort to ensure it was a genuinely secret vote.

Updated

Keir Starmer says today’s result shows the country faces a choice between “divided Tories” and a “united Labour party”.

After announcing the numbers, Sir Graham Brady said that meant the Conservative party has confidence in Boris Johnson.

There was loud, and sustained desk banging from Johnson’s supporters.

But by no stretch can this be described as a good result for Johnson. He has lost the support of a larger proportion of the parliamentary party than Theresa May did when she faced a no-confidence vote in 2018. Within eight months of that result, May was out.

Updated

Boris Johnson wins confidence vote by 211 votes to 148

Sir Graham Brady, chair of the Conservative 1922 Committee, says 359 votes were cast. There were no spoilt ballots.

Confidence in Boris Johnson: 211

No confidence in Johnson: 148

That means more than 40% of Tory MPs voted against Johnson.

Sir Graham Brady
Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers, reads the result of the vote. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Updated

Another lull in the noise level. Perhaps those at the other end of the room can see something we can’t.

It started to go quiet a moment ago in committee room 14. The volume is back up. But the announcement is imminent.

From my colleague Peter Walker

Committee room 14 is set up like a mini chamber, with rows of desks facing each other, for debatings, and a visitors’ gallery area at the end for people who are watching. The windows look out onto the Thames. They have just admitted the journalists, and we’re now sitting in the gallery seats. The main area has been reserved for Tory MPs. There must be 70 or so of them here. Some are sitting, some are standing and mingling. The atmosphere is more excited than tense.

In the Commons there is now a large crowd of journalists outside the door to committee room 14, which has been chosen as the room where the result will be announced because it is about the biggest committee room in the Commons. We have been told that about 40 journalists will be let in. There are about that number, or more, outside, and an orderly queue it certainly isn’t.

Updated

Boris Johnson’s team think he has won the vote, the BBC’s Nick Eardley reports.

But the big question, of course, is whether it will be a convincing, political win - or a narrow, technical win that could herald government paralysis (see 7.49pm) and guerilla war in the party (see 8.36pm).

The Conservative MP Sir Charles Walker has said that he expects Boris Johnson to win tonight, but that the result could lead to “guerilla war” in the party. He told Channel 4 News:

I think the prime minister will win tonight, absolutely I think he’ll win, but really the important thing is what happens afterwards with the parliamentary party.

Does the parliamentary party say ‘right, OK, we’ve had the confidence vote, is it now time to move on, get behind the prime minister?’

Or will there be a temptation to have a rolling maul, a guerrilla war, for the next six, 12, 18, 24 months?

Updated

Gavin Barwell, Theresa May’s former chief of staff, is enjoying the news that some of Boris Johnson’s allies are complaining about MPs not telling the truth.

Nicholas Watt from BBC’s Newsnight is also picking up gloom from the Boris Johnson camp.

And this is from my colleague Aubrey Allegretti.

These are from Harry Lambert at the New Statesman.

In a post on Facebook, the Conservative MP Dehenna Davison says she voted against Boris Johnson tonight.

Many of you have understandably asked how I intended to vote in this evening’s confidence ballot in the prime minister. Though it is a secret ballot, it feels right to share with you how I voted.

This is not a decision I took lightly. I listened carefully to all sides, and particularly to the many constituents who contacted me sharing their thoughts and experiences. Weighing it all up, I voted against the prime minister tonight.

I hope that, whatever the result, we politicians can now fully focus on the things we were elected to do for you. (And that is why I won’t be commenting further on this now!)

Davison is a classic “red wall” MP, representing Bishop Auckland, which had been Labour since the 1930s until Davison won it in 2019. But Davison had been identified in reports as one of the 2019 intake mobilising against Johnson earlier this year.

Voting closes

The ballot has now closed. Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, treasurer of the 1922 Committee, arrived a few minutes ago to join the counting. There are no more MPs outside committee room 10 and the journalists are heading off to grab something to eat.

Updated

Gavin Barwell, the Tory peer who was chief of staff to Theresa May when she was PM, has posted his analysis on Twitter of what would amount to a good or bad result for Boris Johnson tonight.

Barwell, who is a regular critic of Johnson’s, says that fewer than 100 votes against the PM would be a good result for him, more than 133 votes against would be “the beginning of the end”, and that more than 144 votes against ought to finish him off (but probably won’t).

And David Davis, the Tory former Brexit secretary, told LBC’s Tonight with Andrew Marr that he thought Boris Johnson would win technically, but not politcally, in the vote tonight. He explained:

I think Boris will win technically, but I think it will be a psychological defeat, in the sense of a very large number of people are voting against, probably more than are expected.

I suspect quite a lot of ministers who are obviously publicly saying they’re voting one way will vote the other. Somebody said to me a third will be in that position.

Davis, who has said Boris Johnson should quit, suggested the vote was taking place too early. Some of the PM’s critics think they would have had more chance of winning a no-confidence vote after the two byelections later this month, in Wakefield and in Tiverton and Honiton, both of which the Tories are expected to lose.

Davis said a Johnson victory tonight could lead to paralysis in government. He explained:

The real problem with calling this early is that we may end up with a sort of paralysed government or a populist government, where everything they do is just designed to carry favour with one sector of the population or another, and that’s quite dangerous. That’s where governments go wrong.

Kwasi Kwarteng, the business secretary, told LBC’s Tonight with Andrew Marr that he thought Boris Johnson could bounce back and win an election for the Tories. But he also claimed that the party had no alternative to sticking with him as leader. He told the programme:

People have written [Johnson] off before many times. And he’s come back and I think he’s absolutely the right person to come back and to win and the point that you made in your opening remarks was quite right. I mean, we don’t have an alternative. I think the idea that we spend three months or whatever it might be, finding a new leader and all that, going through all of that beauty contest, is absurd.

Laurence Robertson, the leave-voting MP for Tewkesbury who backed Boris Johnson for the Tory leadership in 2019, has said that he could not support the PM tonight.

Another Scottish Tory, Andrew Bowie, says he has voted against Boris Johnson.

That means four of the six Scottish Conservative MPs have come out against Boris Johnson. The others are Douglas Ross, the Scottish Tory leader (see 4.45pm), John Lamont (see 7.17pm) and David Mundell (see 7.19pm).

Insider’s Henry Dyer (who has been counting) reckons 300 Tory MPs have now voted.

Another Scottish Tory, the former Scottish secretary David Mundell, has declared that he voted against Boris Johnson.

Here is the letter from John Lamont explaining why is voting against Boris Johnson, which has led to him resigning as parliamentary private secretary (PPS) to Liz Truss.

Lamont is MP for Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk. Most Scottish MSPs are thought to be opposed to Boris Johnson, and Douglas Ross - who sits as an MP and an MSP, and who is leader of the Scottish Tories - declared earlier that he was voting against Johnson. (See 4.45pm.)

Updated

And Boris Johnson has now left. He did not stop to talk to reporters as he headed down the committee corridor.

Boris Johnson has arrived to vote. He turned up with Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, and Andrew Griffith, his chief of staff. There did not seem to be a queue at the time and he got straight in.

Back outside committee room 10 the queue did clear for a moment (as Sir Bernard Jenkin went in), but another handful of MPs have now arrived. However, it is all slowing down. Voting is no longer “brisk”.

Some readers have asked what will happen if the no-confidence vote is tied. This was raised at a briefing where a senior party figure explained the process to journalists. They would not say. The reply was along the lines of: “We’ll cross that bridge if we come to it.”

Updated

Theresa May refused to say how she voted as she left committee room 10, PA Media reports. She said she was not “answering any questions”.

John Lamont has resigned as a PPS because he will be voting against Boris Johnson, ITV’s Peter Smith reports.

Anti-Johnson campaigners outside Houses of Parliament this afternoon.
Anti-Johnson campaigners outside Houses of Parliament this afternoon. Photograph: Niklas Halle’n/AFP/Getty Images

Steve Baker, the former Brexit minister who has called for Boris Johnson to go, told reporters after hearing Boris Johnson address the Conservative 1922 Committee earlier that it was a “very, very sad day”. He said it was “highly likely” that Johnson would “formally win” the vote. But he went on:

What that means over the months ahead, I don’t know.

What I am certain of is that the Conservative party’s got to find a way to raise our standard of conduct in all things - not only amongst ministers, but amongst backbenchers, particularly when they give comment to all of you [the media].

Back at the committee room 10 doorstep, Michael Ellis, the paymaster general, has arrived. He says he has never had to queue before for one of these votes. There are about 20 people waiting to get in.

Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak will lay out “the plan for growth” next week, with a “broad outline of the prime minister’s vision across the board”, PA Media reports. PA says:

The PM did not promise a “specific tax cut” during a meeting of the 1922 Committee earlier, a senior Tory party source said source said, but there is a “very big speech by him and the chancellor on the economy” on the way.

Johnson also spoke of another planned announcement with the levelling up secretary on housing.

He told MPs: “If I am here later this week - and I very much hope that I will be - Michael Gove and I will be setting out plans to kindle that dream of home ownership in the hearts of millions who currently believe it is beyond their means.”

And on tax Johnson told his MPs:

And then there is one chunk of household income that is the biggest of all, and that is tax.

Everyone understands the fiscal impact of Covid, the cost of clearing the backlogs.

But the way out now is to drive supply side reform on Conservative principles and to cut taxes and to drive investment in the UK.

Theresa May has arrived to vote. She looks like she has dressed for a special occasion - presumably a dinner engagement later although, given her feelings about Boris Johnson, perhaps the no-confidence ballot itself is a moment for celebration.

Updated

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Brexit minister, arrives to join a queue that is diminishing. He says he will be voting for the “right side” (which no doubt is what his opponents think they are doing too).

Back outside committee room 10 the queue is still about 30 deep, but it is moving a bit more quickly. Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, has arrived. Penny Mordaunt is in the queue behind him. The mood is more upbeat than you might expect. MPs, wherever their loyalities lie, a bit of excitement ...

In his speech to Tory MPs earlier Boris Johnson promised to use deregulation to cut the cost of living for people. According to a text of his remarks released to journalists, he said:

Why should the cost of transport be inflated by outdated practices that have nothing to do with safety?

Why should the cost of childcare be pushed up by unnecessary rules on child-minding?

Why should the cost of energy be pushed by everything from the life cycles of the crustacea that may form on the legs of offshore windmills to the system that enables all electricity producers to charge the top marginal rate?

This is from the Daily Mail’s John Stevens, who has been keeping a tally of MPs declaring their support for Boris Johnson. (See 5.13pm.)

Jeremy Hunt is in the queue now, talking to another Tory MP who is not backing Boris Johnson, John Baron. Hunt is reminiscing about his appearance at the Hay literary festival.

Updated

There must be about 25 to 30 Tory MPs queuing up to vote now, with a slightly smaller crowd of journalists standing on the other side of the corridor. Some of the MPs are talking to journalists. There is quite a lot of chat going on, but (from what I’ve heard) it is mostly mundane. Having been about the third person to go in, Grant Shapps has rejoined the queue. “Vote early, vote often,” seems to be his motto, but a colleague tells me this is what MPs have to do when using a proxy vote for someone else. They cannot get issued with two ballot papers at the same time.

Updated

Tory MPs start voting in no-confidence ballot on Boris Johnson

There are now more than a dozen Tory MPs in the queue to vote. Sir Peter Bottomley went in first. (The MPs are being allowed in one by one at the moment.) Alister Jack, the Scottish secretary, Sir Roger Gale, a leading critic of Boris Johnson’s, Robert Halfon, chair of the education committee, and Peter Bone are among those in the crowd.

Updated

Tory MPs are voting in committee room 10 in the House of Commons. It is not the larger committee room 14, which is normally used for big meetings of MPs and which is the room that will be used for the declaration of the result at 9pm. Sir Peter Bottomley, the father of the house, has arrived to vote and he is waiting on a bench, reading a copy of the Evening Standard. He won’t say how he’s voting.

Updated

From my colleague Rowena Mason

The Labour party has said that tomorrow it will force a vote in the Commons on a motion saying the government should implement in full recommendations from the Committee on Standards in Public Life proposing to beef up the ministerial code. Boris Johnson was widely criticised last week when he issued a revised draft of the code that ignored many of these recommendations and effectively watered down the code in some respects.

Angela Rayner, the deputy Labour leader, said:

The Committee on Standards in Public Life was founded by Sir John Major a quarter of a century ago but its role has never been more important in upholding standards in the wake of sleaze, scandal and shame.

Labour is urging MPs of all parties to support this independent, cross-party package of reforms to tackle decaying standards. if they fail to back this move to clean up politics, it is they who will have to look their constituents in the eye.

The prime minister did not greet his Estonian counterpart outside the door of No 10 seemingly to avoid journalists ahead of the no-confidence motion tonight, PA Media reports. The Estonian prime minister, Kaja Kallas, was visiting Downing Street to speak with Boris Johnson about strengthening the Nato alliance against Russian aggression, and she did not receive a handshake outside in a marked break from protocol. Kallas instead waved to cameras on her entrance and spoke briefly with the press after their meeting, which lasted around 20 minutes and was mostly in private. The Estonian leader tentatively told the media that Johnson was in “good” spirits.

The Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas arriving at No 10 earlier today.
The Estonian prime minister, Kaja Kallas, arriving at No 10 earlier today. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Updated

The Conservative MP Sir Robert Syms says he will vote against Boris Johnson this evening.

George Grylls from the Times has more detail of the “who hasn’t got pissed?” comment from a senior Tory source speaking to journalists about the PM’s meeting with Conservative MPs. (See 5.03pm.)

John Stevens from the Daily Mail has been keeping a tally of Tory MPs who have said publicly that they will vote for Boris Johnson and he is still more than 50 short of the 180 Johnson needs to be sure of victory.

When Stevens conducted a similar exercise in 2018, Theresa May had got the number of public endorsements she needed from her MPs by lunchtime on the day of the no-confidence vote. (See 1.48pm.)

Updated

Johnson reportedly tells Tory MPs he would 'do it again' with regard to Partygate events

Boris Johnson’s declaration to Tory MPs (as reported by Patrick Maguire from the Times) that he would “do it again” regarding Partygate may turn out to be a major blunder. Presumably he was thinking primarily of his attendance at various leaving events, for which he was not fined and which he defended on the grounds that, as a leader, it was important for morale to thank departing staff.

This is from ITV’s Paul Brand.

These are from the Mirror’s Pippa Crerar.

UPDATE: Ben Riley-Smith from the Telegraph has posted this on the context for Johnson’s remark.

Updated

This is from James Forsyth, the Spectator’s political editor.

Boris Johnson has now finished speaking to Conservative MPs. These are from journalists doorstepping the meeting who have been trying to find out how his speech was received.

From my colleague Rowena Mason

From the Times’ Patrick Maguire

From ITV’s Robert Peston

From Insider’s Cat Neilan

From the i’s Paul Waugh

Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross says he will vote against Johnson, having heard 'loud and clear' public anger about him

Douglas Ross, the Scottish Conservative leader, has announced that he will vote against Boris Johnson tonight.

Ross was one of the first Tory MPs to call for Johnson to go when the Partygate story escalated at the start of the year. Then, after Russia invaded Ukraine, he changed his mind and said that it would be wrong to replace Johnson with the war ongoing. He even withdrew the letter he had submitted calling for a no-confidence vote, attracting derision from his opponents in Scotland.

This is from the Daily Mirror’s Pippa Crerar on the game of expectation management being played by both sides today.

Here is more from journalists who have been doorstepping Boris Johnson’s meeting with Conservative MPs.

Johnson to stress his record as election winner in appeal to Tory MPs

According to Sky’s Beth Rigby, Boris Johnson will tell Tory MPs that under his leadership the Conservatives won their biggest electoral victory in 40 years.

Johnson’s speeches often contain statements that are not true, and this is no exception. Margaret Thatcher won majorities of 144 and 102 in 1983 and 1987 respectively, and so Johnson delivered the best result in 30 years, not 40 years. Perhaps it was a typo.

The reference to the single market is a jibe at Tobias Ellwood, the Tory chair of the Commons defence committee who last week suggested rejoining it.

Boris Johnson addresses Tory MPs in private ahead of no-confidence vote

Boris Johnson has arrived to address a meeting of Conservative MPs in private. These are from some of the journalists doorstepping the room where this is happening.

More than half Tory members want their MPs to get rid of Johnson, ConservativeHome survey suggests

The ConservativeHome website has now released the results of its own poll of members on whether or not Tory MPs should vote to remove Boris Johnson and this shows a narrow majority (55%) saying they should get rid of him. Another 41% say the MPs should back him.

This is worse for Johnson than the YouGov poll covering the same question (see 3.38pm) which found a narrow majority of members saying MPs should not remove Johnson. It is hard to poll party members propery (because there are relatively few of them), but the ConservativeHome results have a good track record - and their sample today involved more than twice as many members as YouGov’s.

This is from the anaysis of the findings by Paul Goodman, the ConservativeHome editor.

This is the first time that the panel has concluded that [Johnson] should go, though the prime minister was at the foot of our Cabinet League Table last month, and in negative ratings.

To say that the position has worsened for him again since May 29, the date of our last survey, is a statement of the obvious, and I won’t attempt an exhaustive analysis of why this might be so.

Other than to point out that the long period of Jubilee celebration hasn’t done him any good with the panel.

For better or worse, party members don’t have a vote later today, and MPs must ultimately make what they believe is the right decision for the country (or so we hope).

But at over a thousand replies in a day this is a very substantial survey return – our highest this year.

And, for the record, the panel hasn’t changed much since it gave Johnson a 93 point approval rating in the wake of the 2019 general election.

Twenty-two Conservative party donors who have collectively given the party more than £18m in recent years have signed a joint letter backing Boris Johnson, the Sun’s Harry Cole reports.

Updated

According to a snap YouGov poll, Conservative party members are split over whether or not their MPs should vote against Boris Johnson. A narrow majority (53%) support Johnson, the poll suggests, but 42% think he should be removed.

But the same poll suggests members think the Conservatives would be more likely to form a government after the next election under a different leader.

As for who that leader should be, there is no consensus, but Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, and Jeremy Hunt, the former foreign secretary, are the top three.

Only 500 Conservative party members participated in the YouGov poll. The ConservativeHome website also polls Tory members on this and in the past its surveys have provided a good guide to the outcome on party leadership and selection contests. When it asked in December who the next party leader should be, Truss came out top. ConservativeHome polls more regularly on how members think cabinet ministers are performing, and last week Wallace was well ahead of everyone else on this measure.

Updated

From the Times’ Steven Swinford

These are from Lucy Fisher from Times Radio on how the vote will be conducted this evening.

In the past, when a Tory prime minister could only be challenged by someone issuing a leadership challenge, representatives of the candidates were allowed to witness the voting. That meant a government whip was in the room and, although it was a secret vote, it was easy for MPs to show the whip their ballot paper. Now the rules are intended to ensure that MPs really can vote in private.

It is often assumed that the 160-plus MPs on the payroll vote - ministers, PPSs, trade envoys and Conservative party vice chairs - will automatically support the PM. In a genuinely secret ballot, Boris Johnson cannot be confident they will.

Penny Mordaunt, the international trade minister who ignored the no-confidence vote in a message she posted on Twitter this morning (see 10.29am), has now retweeted an article from her local paper in which she says Boris Johnson “has always had my loyalty”. She told the Portsmouth News:

I didn’t choose this prime minister, I didn’t support him in the leadership contest but he has always had my loyalty because I think that’s what you do when you have a democratic process – you select a leader and then you owe that person your loyalty.

That’s always been my approach, whatever differences I’ve had with people and that remains. I’m one of his ministers and I have continued to support him.

It is hard to be sure, but there may be some significance in the way she has phrased this (using the present perfect tense). She could just say she continues to support him.

Updated

According to a snap Opinium poll carried out today, 59% of people, including 34% of Conservative voters, think Tory MPs should vote against Boris Johnson tonight.

The key question, of course, raised by Will Walden’s interview (see 2.31pm) is what would count as a “significant number” of votes against Boris Johnson. On BBC News a few minutes ago Daniel Finkelstein, the Conservative peer and Times columnist, said that if between 120 and 130 Tory MPs were to vote against Johnson that would be “seriously problematic”.

Will Walden, who worked for Boris Johnson as a communications adviser when Johnson was London mayor and foreign secretary, told the World at One that there was no chance of Johnson agreeing to resign if he wins the vote tonight, but not by much. He explained:

Boris will be taken kicking and screaming out of the front door of Number 10. There is no way that the thing that he has wanted all his life he is going to give up easily on ...

Boris Johnson does not do reverse gear. He only does forward gear, and his mantra is plough on. Whatever the problem, plough on. Whatever the result, he will say it’s done and dusted, on we go.

The idea that Boris Johnson is going to go is for the birds, and it will take several people with revolvers in the room to convince him to go.

But Walden also said that a significant vote against Johnson would ultimately prove fatal, even if technically he won. He said:

A significant number of votes against him, even if it’s nowhere near a majority, then it’s death by a thousand cuts.

Will those rebels withhold their support in parliament? History does dictate that if a prime minister survives a confidence vote but doesn’t survive it convincingly, then ultimately you bleed to death.

Anything less than a convincing win tonight will not do what they’re seeking to do, which is to put this to bed.


Updated

These are from the Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith on how Boris Johnson was told there would be a no-confidence vote.

This may explain why at certain points Johnson looked rather glum when he was attending the platinum jubilee pageant yesterday.

Boris Johnson at the platinum jubilee pageant on the Mall yesterday
Boris Johnson at the platinum jubilee pageant on the Mall yesterday. Photograph: FD/Francis Dias/Newspix International

Updated

Most cabinet ministers have posted messages on Twitter expressing support for the PM. Here is a selection.

From Dominic Raab, the justice secretary and deputy prime minister

From Nadhim Zahawi, the education secretary

From Thérèse Coffey, the work and pensions secretary

From Grant Shapps, the transport secretary

From Ben Wallace, the defence secretary

From the Times’ Patrick Maguire

Andrew Mitchell, the former Conservative chief whip, told the World at One that even if Boris Johnson won tonight, it would be a Pyrrhic victory.

I very much fear if he does win tonight it will be a Pyrrhic victory. He needs to look himself in the mirror and ask himself what is in the best interests of our country and of our party.

Mitchell said that after a visit he made to a beacon-lighting event in his Sutton Coldfield constituency to mark the platinum jubilee, it was clear the public had turned against the PM.

As I walked through the crowd it was very clear that the prime minister has not only lost the dressing room he has also lost quite a lot of people in the stands.

Mitchell said in January that Johnson no longer had his support, but he told the programme that he had not written a letter to Sir Graham Brady, chair of the Conservative 1922 Committee, requesting a no-confidence vote.

Updated

John Stevens, the Daily Mail journalist who has been keeping a tally of the Conservative MPs saying that they will back Boris Johnson in the vote tonight, has just told Radio 4’s World at One that when he conducted a similar exercise on the day of the no-confidence vote in Theresa May, by lunchtime she had already received enough public endorsements to be confident of victory.

But Johnson is nowhere near that point, Stevens said. Johnson needs at least 180 votes to be confident of winning. At the moment he is just at the halfway point, according to Stevens’ count.

Updated

Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Westminster, has issued a statement urging Tory MPs - and particularly the Scottish ones - to vote against Boris Johnson. He said:

Boris Johnson is completely unfit to be prime minister and he should have been removed from office long ago.

He has broken the law, lied to parliament and distracted the UK government from tackling the issues that matter, including the Tory cost of living crisis and the long-term damage caused by Brexit.

Tory MPs must finally put the interests of the public first. They must vote Boris Johnson out and do it now.

And there cannot be any more flip-flopping from Douglas Ross and the Scottish Tories. Ross has made himself and the Tory Holyrood group look utterly ridiculous, while the rest of the spineless Scottish Tory MPs have shown nothing but craven loyalty to Boris Johnson – it is way past time for all of them to finally do the right thing and vote him out of office.

According to the BBC’s political editor, Chris Mason, Nadine Dorries’ Twitter diatribe against Jeremy Hunt this morning (see 1.35pm), may have backfired.

On Radio 4’s World at One Mason also said Boris Johnson spent an hour this morning personally signing the letters he has sent out to all Tory MPs asking for their support. (See 11.31am.)

Nadine Dorries, the culture secretary, has responded to Jeremy Hunt’s declaration that he will vote against Boris Johnson tonight (see 11.20am) by unleashing a ferocious attack on him, accusing him of “duplicity”, saying that he has been “wrong about almost everything” and arguing that the handling of Covid would have been a “disaster” if Hunt had been in charge.

Dorries has been an admirer of Johnson’s for years and, like Jacob Rees-Mogg, is unlikely to remain in the cabinet under any other Tory leader. An animal lover, earlier this year she joked that the only thing that might stop her backing him would be if he kicked a dog. Recently it emerged that Johnson got so angry with his own dog, Dilyn, he suggested it should be put down, but Dorries’s loyalty does not seem to have weakened.

Updated

The number of votes against Boris Johnson tonight is most likely to fall within the 100 to 149 bracket, according to the odds offered by Ladbrokes. This is what they are offering.

0-49 - 66/1

50-99 - 3/1

100-149 - 15/8

150-199 - 2/1

200-249 - 5/1

250-299 - 16/1

300+ - 100/1

Updated

Boris Johnson (or his social media manager) has been tweeting about the PM’s conversation with the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy. They do speak often, but No 10 does seem particularly keen to publicise these conversations on days when Johnson’s leadership is being questioned.

The Johnson Twitter account has also posted about Wales qualifying for the World Cup.

Here is John Penrose explaining why he resigned as the government’s anti-corruption champion. (See 11.44am.)

The Daily Mail’s John Stevens has a long Twitter thread noting Tory MPs who have publicly said they will vote for Boris Johnson tonight. He is currently on 79.

Rees-Mogg claims remainers behind attempt to oust Johnson and that, without him, Brexit won't be fully delivered

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Brexit opportunities minister, has been giving interviews this morning defending Boris Johnson. He is one of the cabinet ministers most loyal to Johnson, which critics claim is not wholly unrelated to his status as one of the ministers most likely to be sacked under another Tory leader. Here are some of the main points he made.

  • Rees-Mogg claimed that, if Johnson were replaced, Brexit would not be delivered. “I also think that, without Boris Johnson, Brexit will not be delivered,” he said. The UK has already left the EU, and so Brexit is supposed to have been delivered anyway, but Rees-Mogg was implying that the full advantanges of Brexit, as he sees them (divergence from EU regulations) would not be delivered under another leader.
  • He implied the campaign to get rid of Johnson was being driven by remainers. “It is in the remainer interest [to get rid of Johnson],” he said. When it was put to him that many of the Tory MPs opposed to Johnson are Brexiters, he said opposition to Brexit “is what underlies a significant number of people involved”. He cited Tobias Ellwood and Jeremy Hunt as examples. He went on:

You’ve got people who are pro the European Union who are campaigning to get to the prime minister. I think it’s perfectly reasonable to join the dots.

  • He said that he was wrong in December 2018 when he said that Theresa May should resign after the no-confidence vote which she won, with 63% of Tory MPs backing her and 37% not supporting her. He said that comment was his “greatest mistake” at the time because “in a democracy one is enough”.
  • He claimed that Johnson would be able to continue as prime minister even if he won tonight’s vote by just one vote.
  • He played down the significance of the vote being called in the first place. He said:

I don’t think getting to the 15% bar is particularly damaging, or indeed particularly surprising. I think it’s a relatively low bar and fairly easy to get to ...

The thing about 15% is it means 85% on the other side of the equation.

In fact, we don’t know how many letters were received by Sir Graham Brady, and so it could well be more than 15%. Yesterday the Sunday Times reported claims that 67 letters had been submitted, which would be almost 19%.

  • And Rees-Mogg claimed that the fact that Johnson received “a little bit of booing” when he arrived at St Paul’s Cathedral for the service for the Queen’s platinum jubilee was “perfectly normal”. When Sky News played the clip to him, he accused them of turning up the volume to make it sound worse than it was. He said:

Turning the volume up to get your readers to be too concerned about that – that was a bit miserable really.

Jacob Rees-Mogg
Jacob Rees-Mogg. Photograph: BBC News

Updated

Angela Richardson, the Conservative MP for Guildford, has issued a statement on Facebook saying she will vote against Boris Johnson this evening. She explains:

From the very beginning of the issues surrounding the prime minister’s conduct during the lockdown period and his subsequent answers to parliamentary questions, I have been consistent in my views about the standards people expect of those in high office.

Last week, I made a statement following the publication of the full Sue Gray report that questioned whether those standards had been upheld.

The deep disappointment I expressed in a previous statement in January has not abated.

Given that, I will be voting no confidence in Boris Johnson this evening.

Boris Johnson has had one of his regular calls with Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainain president, this morning. Here is an extract from the readout issued by a No 10 spokesperson.

The prime minister said the UK continues to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Ukraine and extended his condolences to all Ukrainian families who have lost loved ones in the war. He set out the significant new support the government is providing, including long-range multiple-launch rocket systems to strike Russian artillery positions which are being used to bombard Ukrainian towns.

The leaders also discussed diplomatic negotiations and efforts to end the damaging Russian blockade of Ukraine’s grain exports. They agreed to intensify work with other allies, including G7 leaders, to drive progress on ending Russia’s illegal invasion and supporting Ukraine’s economy.

The prime minister closed by offering his commiserations to the Ukrainian national football team on being knocked out of World Cup qualifiers. He reiterated his admiration for the Ukrainian people’s strength and national spirit in the face of Russian brutality.

Updated

John Penrose told BBC News that he decided to resign as the government’s anti-corruption champion last week (see 11.44am) but that he did not announce it then because of the Queen’s platinum jubilee. He wrote his resignation letter yesterday, he said, before he knew a no-confidence vote was taking place this week.

Updated

Tory MP John Penrose resigns as government's anti-corruption champion, saying PM broke ministerial code over Partygate

The Conservative MP John Penrose has released an open letter to Boris Johnson announcing his resignation as the government’s anti-corruption champion. Penrose says his decision was prompted by the Sue Gray report, which he says implied Johnson broke the ministerial code over Partygate, and by Johnson’s comments on this in a letter to Lord Geidt, his independent adviser on ministerial standards, last week.

Here is an extract from the letter.

My reason for stepping down is your public letter last week, replying to your independent adviser on the ministerial code about the recent Sue Gray report into ‘partygate’. In it you addressed the concerns over the fixed penalty notice you paid, but not the broader and very serious criticisms of what the report called ‘failures of leadership and judgment’ and its conclusion that ‘senior leadership at the centre, both political and official, must bear responsibility for this culture’. You will know (and your letter to your adviser on the ministerial code explicitly says) that the Nolan principles of public life are absolutely central to the ministerial code, and that the seventh of them is ‘leadership’. So the only fair conclusion to draw from the Sue Gray report is that you have breached a fundamental principle of the ministerial code - a clear resigning matter. But your letter to your independent adviser on the ministerial code ignores this absolutely central, non-negotiable issue completely. And, if it had addressed it, it is hard to see how it could have reached any other conclusion than that you had broken the code.

And here is the full text of it.

John Penrose
John Penrose. Photograph: BBC News

Updated

Johnson claims no-confidence vote offers Tories 'golden chance' to move on from Partygate

In a letter to Conservative MPs Boris Johnson claims he has shown that he can be “trusted to deliver bold and innovative solutions to difficult and longstanding problems”.

He accepts that some of the criticism of him over Partygate was fair. But he says he has responded to that, and he claims that the party now has a “golden chance” to put the issue behind it.

I know that over recent months I have come under a great deal of fire, and I know that experience has been painful for the whole party.

Some of that criticism has perhaps been fair, some less so. Where there have been valid points, I have listened and learned and made significant changes.

And I will of course continue to listen and learn from colleagues about the improvements you wish to see.

But I cannot stress too much that we have a golden chance to put this behind us now.

With your support, I believe that tonight we have a great prize within our grasp. We can put an end to the media’s favourite obsession. We can get on with the job without the noises off.

And I am absolutely confident that if we can unite in the days ahead then in due course we will win again, repay the trust of the 14 million who voted for us, and continue to serve the country we love.

Johnson’s critics, of course, also argue that the no-confidence vote offers Tory MPs a golden opportunity to move on from Partygate.

Updated

Jeremy Hunt says he will vote against Johnson because he is set to lose Tories next election

Jeremy Hunt, the former foreign secretary who is one of the favourites to succeed Boris Johnson as Tory leader, has said he will vote against the PM in tonight’s no-confidence vote. In a statement posted on Twitter as a thread he said:

The Conservative party must now decide if it wishes to change its leader. Because of the situation in Ukraine this was not a debate I wanted to have now but under our rules we must do that.

Having been trusted with power, Conservative MPs know in our hearts we are not giving the British people the leadership they deserve.

We are not offering the integrity, competence and vision necessary to unleash the enormous potential of our country.

And because we are no longer trusted by the electorate, who know this too, we are set to lose the next general election.

Anyone who believes our country is stronger, fairer and more prosperous when led by Conservatives should reflect that the consequence of not changing will be to hand the country to others who do not share those values.

Today’s decision is change or lose. I will be voting for change.

Jeremy Hunt.
Jeremy Hunt. Photograph: Dominic Lipinski/PA

Updated

Starmer says tonight's vote will be 'beginning of end' for Johnson even if he wins

Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, told LBC during his “Call Keir” phone-in this morning that, even if Boris Johnson wins the vote tonight, it will mark the beginning of the end for him. He told LBC:

I think the mood has changed. I think the public have made their mind up about this man. They don’t think he’s really telling the truth about many, many things - not just Partygate - but just the general sense that this man doesn’t really tell the truth, [he] can’t be trusted.

We’ve got a prime minister trying to cling on to his job and most people would say ‘your job is to help me through the cost-of-living crisis and you’re not doing it because you’re distracted’.

I think history tells us that this is the beginning of the end. If you look at the previous examples of no-confidence votes, even when Conservative prime ministers survived those, he might survive it tonight, the damage is already done and usually they fall reasonably swiftly afterwards.

There are 359 Conservative MPs and so Boris Johnson needs at least 180 votes to be sure of winning. But, as Starmer points out, a technical win is not necessarily a political victory, and the last Conservative prime minister to win a vote of confidence like this (Theresa May, on 12 December 2018) was out of office less than eight months later.

At the weekend Tim Shipman from the Sunday Times produced some benchmarks that would show whether or not Johnson is doing worse than May in 2018, John Major in 1995 and Margaret Thatcher in 1990. (The latter two are not exact parallels because they were facing a leadership challenge, not a no confidence vote.)

Keir Starmer taking part in his LBC phone-in this morning.
Keir Starmer taking part in his LBC phone-in this morning. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Updated

Boris Johnson (or the person who manages his social media) has also been tweeting today about a defence matter, rather than the no-confidence vote.

His supporters claim that the leadership he has shown over the war in Ukraine is one of the reasons for retaining him in office.

Updated

Penny Mordaunt, the former defence secretary who is now an international trade minister, has been written up in the media as a potential surprise, unity candidate to replace Boris Johnson. She is a Brexiter but is well regarded by Tory remainers and one nation-types. She has been tweeting today - but not about her support for the PM.

Updated

Tory MPs have been told that if they take a picture of their ballot paper their vote will be invalid, ITV’s Anushka Asthana reports. Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the Conservative 1922 Committee, has stressed this to ensure that MPs do not come under pressure from No 10 to produce evidence that they actually did vote for Boris Johnson.

In the past Tory prime ministers have often found that the number of MPs saying they will support them in a leadership contest, or a no confidence ballot, is not the same as the number who actually do.

Updated

This is from Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader. He is echoing the line used by Labour’s Wes Streeting (see 10.09am), who also said Tory MPs should remove their leader.

At one point opinion was divided within the Labour party as to whether it was in their best interests for Johnson to go, or whether Labour would do better at the next election if Johnson were remain in office. Now the evidence is clearer that Johnson is a huge liability for his party. James Johnson, a pollster who used to work for Theresa May in Downing Street, explained why yesterday in a Twitter thread starting here on polling from Wakefield, where a byelection is taking place later this month.

Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, told Times Radio this morning that voters would judge Conservative MPs “very harshly” if they allowed Boris Johnson to remain in office. He said:

Well, they’ve got two choices, no confidence or no backbone. Voters will judge Conservative MPs rightly, very harshly if they stick by this discredited and disgraced prime minister.

It’s one thing for Boris Johnson to try and get through this and hope that he can make it through to the next general election and that voters will forgive him. But I don’t think voters will forgive Conservative MPs who when presented with the opportunity to give the country better leadership effectively turn around and say that the Conservative party has no one else available, but Boris Johnson is the best that the Conservative party has to offer.

Sir Graham Brady speaking to members of the media outside the Houses of Parliament earlier following his announcement that a no-confidence vote in Boris Johnson as Tory leader will take place tonight.
Sir Graham Brady speaking to members of the media outside the Houses of Parliament earlier following his announcement that a no-confidence vote in Boris Johnson as Tory leader will take place tonight. Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters

Updated

'Sensible planning replaced by empty rhetoric' - Summary of Jesse Norman's letter saying why PM should quit

The Jesse Norman letter to Graham Brady calling for a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson is one of the most damning yet published. (See 7.50am.) Much of it could come straight out of a Guardian editorial. Here are some of the main points.

  • Norman says the government under Johnson lacks a “sense of mission” and that “sensible planning has been replaced by empty rhetoric”. He says:

You are simply seeking to campaign, to keep changing the subject and to create political and cultural dividing lines mainly for your advantage, at a time when the economy is struggling, inflation is soaring and growth is anaemic at best.

  • Norman says the Sue Gray report revealed “a culture of casual law-breaking at 10 Downing Street in relation to Covid” and that it was “grotesque” for Johnson to claim he had been vindicated by it.
  • Norman says Johnson’s plan to abandon parts of the Northern Ireland protocol would “economically very damaging, politically foolhardy and almost certainly illegal”.
  • He says the plan to send some asylum seekers to Rwanda is “ugly, likely to be counterproductive and of doubtful legality”.
  • He says the Channel 4 privatisation plan is “an unnecessary and provocative attempt to address a political non-issue during a time of crisis, at significant cost to the independent UK film and TV industry”.
  • He says “no genuinely Conservative government” would have passed the ban on noisy protests in the Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Act.
  • He says that, contrary to what Johnson claims, there is “zero chance” of the government being able to build a nuclear power station a year over the next decade.
  • He says Johnson is trying to implement in part “a presidential system of government that is entirely foreign to our constitution and law”.
  • And he says that if Johnson were to remain in office a Labour victory at the next general election would be “much more likely”, which would be “potentially catastrophic for this country”.

But it is not all negative. Norman praises Johnson for his handling of Ukraine and Covid.

As prime minister, you have been dealt a very difficult hand with Covid and Ukraine, and you deserve great credit for much of the way in which the Government has handled these twin crises. Your recent visit to Kyiv was a conspicuous act of leadership.

Norman is married to Kate Bingham, who ran the government’s vaccine taskforce.

Some readers might wonder why Norman is only saying all this now. In a paragraph that is revealing about how No 10 tried to maintain the loyalty of MPs, Norman says that when he quit the government in last year’s reshuffle, Johnson floated the possibility of him returning, and being given a cabinet job, in the future.

Norman implies that he has only recently decided that he would find such an offer unacceptable. He says:

When I stepped down from the Treasury last September, you raised the topic of the next reshuffle, and we discussed the potential for me to run a department of state.

I have always been deeply committed to public service. But recent events have served to clarify the position this country is in under your leadership, beyond any doubt; and I am afraid I can see no circumstances in which I could serve in a government led by you.

Jesse Norman.
Jesse Norman. Photograph: Graeme Robertson/The Guardian

Updated

Cabinet ministers have been using Twitter to declare their support for Boris Johnson.

This is from Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, who will certainly stand as a candidate to replace Johnson if he loses.

This is from Rishi Sunak, who until recently was seen as a favourite to replace Johnson, and who is still a potential contender.

And this is from Michael Gove, the levelling up secretary, who in the leadership contest in 2016 famously backed Johnson for leader before withdrawing his support and standing against him.

Sajid Javid, the health secretary, responded to the news that a no confidence vote in Boris Johnson will be held tonight by telling the Today programme that this would give the Conservative party a chance to “draw a line” under the recent leadership controversy. He said:

I see it as an opportunity. It’s an opportunity for the party to put behind it all this frenzied speculation we’ve had over the last few days and to get behind a programme of delivery ...

If [Johnson] wins then that draws a line under this ...

As a democratic party, you follow the rules and a win is a win and then we unite behind our leader and keep on delivering - that’s what this is about.

Many MPs would argue that, if a leader wins a no confidence vote only narrowly, then they ought to resign anyway because of the damage done to their authority. But Johnson’s allies have been adopting the line used by Javid, that a win is a win, and saying that he will stay on even if his margin of victory is small.

This is from my colleague Aubrey Allegretti explaining how the no-confidence vote in Boris Johnson will be carried out.

Updated

Johnson tells Tories they are unbeatable if they are 'united and focused on issues that matter'

Boris Johnson welcomes the chance to make his case to MPs, Downing Street claims. In a statement a No 10 spokesperson said:

Tonight is a chance to end months of speculation and allow the government to draw a line and move on, delivering on the people’s priorities. The PM welcomes the opportunity to make his case to MPs and will remind them that when they’re united and focused on the issues that matter to voters there is no more formidable political force.

That final sentence is ambiguous. Is Johnson saying that there is no more formidable political force than himself, when the party is behind him, or no more formidable political force than a united Conservative party focused on the issues that matter?

His problem is that, no matter what the outcome of the ballot is tonight, it will not show that the party is united.

Brady says no further no-confidence vote allowed for another year if PM wins - but admits that rule could be changed

Brady will not say whether he has submitted a letter to himself calling a no-confidence vote, but he says it would be “slightly odd thing to do” given his position.

And he says that, while technically it would be possible to change the rules, as they stand now if Boris Johnson wins there will be a year-long “period of grace” during which a further leadership contest cannot take place.

Technically it’s possible for rules to be changed but the rule at present is there would be a period of grace.

Updated

Brady says some Tory MPs calling for no-confidence vote specified it should only happen after jubilee celebrations over

Sir Graham Brady is speaking to reporters now.

He confirms what was in the statement he sent out earlier.

He says the result will be announced “shortly” after the ballot closes at 8pm.

Arrangements will be in place for Tory MPs needing proxy votes.

He says he told Boris Johnson yesterday that the threshold had been reached. They agreed the vote should take place as soon as possible.

He refuses to say how many letters he received.

Asked when the threshold was reached, he says it is complicated, because some MPs said they only wanted their letter to be effective from the end of the platinum jubilee celebrations.

Updated

Sir Graham Brady will have decided the timing for the no-confidence vote – between 6pm and 8pm tonight (see 8.12am) – after consultation with Boris Johnson. This is about as early as humanly possible – it had been reported that the vote was likely on Tuesday or Wednesday – and this reflects what happened in 2018, when the vote of no confidence in Theresa May was held 24 hours after Brady told May the threshold for a ballot had been reached. At the time that was seen as advantageous to her, because it gave her opponents less time to organise. No 10 probably made the same calculation in relation to the vote today.

Updated

Tory MPs to hold no-confidence vote in Boris Johnson between 6pm and 8pm today, Brady says

Sir Graham Brady has told Tory MPs that there will be a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson, the BBC’s Chris Mason reports. It will take place this evening, between 6pm and 8pm.

Updated

No-confidence vote in Boris Johnson 'likely' to be called, says Sajid Javid

Sajid Javid, the health secretary, has been doing interviews on behalf of the government today. He told BBC Breakfast it was “likely” that there would be a no-confidence vote in Boris Johnson. He said:

My understanding probably isn’t much more than yours because you’ll probably know, or many of your viewers will know, that to have what’s called the vote of confidence requires at least 54 of my colleagues to write into Sir Graham Brady, to ask for one.

Now, will that happen? I don’t know. That’s that’s a decision for my colleagues. I think it’s likely that something like that will happen. But it’s not something that I could tell you definitively.

But it’s not what I think actually the country needs. I hope there isn’t – you have to be prepared but I think that what the country wants is for the government to get on and focus on the job at hand, which we are.

Updated

Former Treasury minister Jesse Norman joins calls for no confidence vote in Johnson

Jesse Norman, the Tory MP and former Treasury minister, has announced that he has written to Sir Graham Brady calling for a no confidence vote in Boris Johnson.

This brings the number of Conservative MPs who have publicly said they have submitted a letter calling for a no-confidence vote close to 30. But there are thought to be just as many MPs who have submitted letters who have done so in secret. Here is the Specatator’s tally from last week, and this was from Tom Larkin at Sky News.

Updated

This is what Sir Graham Brady said last week when asked if he had already received 54 letters calling for a no-confidence vote. “I’ll retain my discretion,” he said.

This was generally taken as being an elaborate way of saying “no comment”. But it might also have been a reference to the considerable flexibility (discretion) Brady has as chairman of the 1922 Committee to interpret the leadership contest rules. There are formal rules, but they are not published by the 1922 Committee, which leaves it up to the chairman to decide exactly how they are implemented. There has been speculation that the threshold of 54 letters was reached last week, but that Brady decided to hold off an announcement until today so as not to distract from the platinum jubilee celebrations.

Updated

Reports Graham Brady to announce threshold for vote has been reached

Good morning. After four days of tributes to the nation’s much-loved head of state, attention focuses to the head of government, Boris Johnson, who is held in rather lower esteem than the Queen - both at home and across the world - and who now seems almost certain to face a no-confidence vote of Tory MPs within the next day or two.

A vote of no confidence has to take place when Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the backbench Conservative 1922 Committee, receives letters demanding one from 15% of Tory MPs (which at the moment means 54 of them). There are reports that Brady is set to announce that this threshold has been met within the hour.

This is from ITV’s Paul Brand.

And this is from Lucy Fisher from Times Radio.

The Tory MP Sir Roger Gale told the Today programme a few minutes ago that Brady is “tight as a clam” and he has not yet confirmed that an announcement is coming. But broadcasters often tend to hear about these things first (they need to get cameras in place) and at Westminster the assumption is that a vote is now happening. The last time Brady announced a no-confidence vote in a PM (Theresa May), he did so in an announcement at 8am.

Today I will almost exclusively be focusing on the Tory leadership crisis, but there are two events on the agenda worth noting.

11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.

1.30pm: Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, gives evidence to the Commons Treasury committee on the cost of living.

I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

Alternatively, you can email me at andrew.sparrow@theguardian.com.

Updated

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