Hiring a head coach may be the most important piece of building a Super Bowl winner. They’re the ones in charge of designing plays, developing prospects and squeezing every minute advantage they can find in a league ruled by parity and a game decided by inches.
That’s what one quarter of the NFL has had to do in 2024 after a brutal year for forgettable and legendary coaches alike. Brandon Staley and Josh McDaniels failed to make it out of the regular season, because of course they did. But they were joined among the Wikipedia list of “former NFL coaches” by coach of the year winners Ron Rivera, Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick.
That’s meant plenty of off-field headlines in the midst of the 2024 NFL Playoffs. This is where we attempt to grade each hire, starting with Belichick’s replacement in Foxborough until every last position is filled before free agency takes shape.
Here’s the thing. Predicting the impact of an NFL head coach is a notoriously slippery tightrope to walk. Some guys who look like rising stars spin off track and explode into a million pieces. Others who appear questionable can get you to the Super Bowl (hello, Zac Taylor). And sometimes a team hires Lovie Smith and tells you exactly what’s going to happen next.
There aren’t any Lovies in the 2024 NFL head coach hiring cycle, which is my fun way of telling you these grades could be comically and horrifically incorrect. I am, after all, part of a group effort at SB Nation that once gave the Detroit Lions a glowing review for hiring Matt Patricia.
This is all to say Jerod Mayo could wind up hoisting the Vince Lombardi Trophy after Super Bowl 60 or Jim Harbaugh could nope his way out of Los Angeles after 13 games and 17 injured starters. These are snap judgments based on what we know, not what comes next. And with free agency and the 2024 NFL Draft looming, there’s a lot that could change very quickly.
Let’s figure out who’s in the best spot.
1
New England Patriots: Jerod Mayo
Hiring Bill Belichick’s assistants rarely works out. Hiring his former players has a better track record, with Mike Vrabel and Kevin O’Connell each piloting playoff teams.
Mayo straddles the line between both camps, a linebackers coach and de facto defensive coordinator so well respected the Patriots penciled him in as the team’s succession plan before jettisoning Belichick. His work with the defense has made that unit one of the best in the NFL over the last five seasons, only once ranking outside the top eight in yards allowed and ranking sixth, fifth and ninth, respectively, when it comes to overall DVOA the last three seasons.
Promoting Mayo gives New England and owner Robert Kraft a logical step back from the previous era without fully abandoning what had worked for nearly two decades with Tom Brady in town. Mayo learned from one of the greatest coaches of all time, but he also commands respect as a former player who understands the field from the ground level in a way guys like Matt Patricia and Joe Judge did not. He may be a branch from the rotted out oak of Belichick assistants, but he’s the only one to have been an NFL All-Pro.
His success or failure won’t be his own. While Belichick was the be-all/end-all with the Patriots, Mayo’s future will hinge on his ability to find a dynamic offensive coordinator capable of rehabilitating the team’s quarterback rotation and a general manager/personnel director capable of stocking it with better options than Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe. That’s a lot to handle and massive shoes to fill, but Mayo may have the right mix of tools and support to do so.
Grade: B
2
Las Vegas Raiders: Antonio Pierce
Pierce had credibility in Las Vegas. It ultimately carried him from linebackers coach to the top job.
Pierce inadvertently helped usher Josh McDaniels out the door by relaying his experience beating McDaniels’ Patriots. Then took the team McDaniels had piloted to a 9-16 record over 1.5 seasons and rallied it to a 5-4 finish. Even better, he did so with a fourth round rookie quarterback instead of the former New England veteran Las Vegas had ponied up to acquire before 2023, Jimmy Garoppolo.
The Raiders rallied around the 45-year-old veteran, who got the full-time job despite only two years of coaching experience at the NFL level. He’s buttressed by a nine-year, Super Bowl-winning career but also the fact he figured things right the hell out once he was calling plays. The Raiders ranked 26th in defensive efficiency in their eight games under McDaniels.
In nine games without him, they ranked second.
This wasn’t because of new additions to the roster; it was thanks to Pierce’s ability to fit the right guys into the right spots and sew chaos. Players like Malcolm Koonce and Robert Spillane, in particular, thrived with their new head coach.
That lends hope to the future. The Raiders proved they can hover around the playoff race as currently constructed. $36 million in salary cap space and a fresh draft await. Time will tell whether Pierce can keep this up, but he did more than enough to earn his spot at the top of the pyramid.
Grade: B+
3
Tennessee Titans: Brian Callahan
Callahan’s departure won’t just be a hinge for the Titans. It will help us figure out whether head coach Zac Taylor is the one bringing out the best from his quarterbacks or if his offensive coordinator’s design is ultimately responsible.
Callahan heads to a quarterback room headed by Will Levis and Malik Willis after designing the offenses that made Joe Burrow an MVP candidate and Jake Browning the league’s most efficient backup quarterback. Burrow’s breakthrough needs little reflection, but Browning’s 0.150 expected points added (EPA) per dropback were eighth best among 32 quarterbacks to play at least 300 snaps in 2023.
Tennessee hopes he’ll have a similar effect with flawed, higher ceiling quarterbacks. Levis heads into the offseason as Ryan Tannehill’s successor, having taken the reins from the veteran midway through the season due to injury and holding them, when healthy, from Week 7 on. He had a couple good games, a few awful ones and mostly looked like a guy who slipped to the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft for good reason.
Hiring Callahan suggests the Titans are content to roll with him at least one more season despite having the cash to throw at a veteran quarterback — their $68 million in salary cap space is second-most in the NFL, per Over the Cap. That’s money that can be used to prop up Levis instead by giving him reliable targets beyond an aging DeAndre Hopkins and whatever Chigoziem Okonkwo and Treylon Burks can come up with. It will also be invested in a bottom five defense that could sink Callahan’s playoff hopes even if his passing game springs to life.
The first year coach has big shoes to fill after his predecessor, Mike Vrabel, used a counter-culture throwback offense to to more with less in Nashville. Ownership decided a fresh start was needed and landed on a coordinator with plenty of NFL experience but a spotty track record before his Burrow-induced 2021 breakthrough. The Titans are taking a big swing here; it might pay off.
Grade: B-
4
Los Angeles Chargers: Jim Harbaugh
There’s no way around it. Harbaugh wins games and develops quarterback talent.
There’s no singular shape that fits the Harbaugh revitalization mold. He was quarterbacks coach of the Oakland Raiders in 2002 and helped turn a 37-year-old Rich Gannon into league MVP. He won games with a non-scholarship roster at the University of San Diego by turning Josh Johnson into the kind of player who can make 17 different pro rosters in the two decades that followed. He turned both Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick into NFC title game starters and shined Andrew Luck and J.J. McCarthy into high level draft picks.
The man gets stuff done. Next up is turning all Justin Herbert’s potential into wins. Herbert has long been considered a franchise quarterback, but slipshod coaching and horrible injury luck meant the Chargers were unable to take the bargain years of his rookie contract and turn it into success; he’s just 30-32 as a starter in the regular season despite ranking 13th among 30 quarterbacks to play at least 800 snaps since 2021.
There’s room for Herbert to grow, but he’ll need help. Austin Ekeler is a free agent. Keenan Allen is on the wrong side of 30 and could be a salary cap casualty this spring. Mike Williams is approaching 30 and played just three games last season. Quentin Johnston may have been 2023’s most frustrating wideout who doesn’t play for the Kansas City Chiefs.
Help will be tough to find. Los Angeles is an estimated $45 million over next year’s salary cap, thanks in no small part to the more than $20 million in dead money attached to J.C. Jackson’s disastrous contract. Restructures can cut that bill roughly in half, but more work will need to be done before this team goes bargain shopping in free agency. Nailing the draft will be paramount to LA’s chances of an immediate turnaround.
That said, the only arrow missing from Harbaugh’s head coaching quiver is a Super Bowl ring. He’s proven repeatedly he can win anywhere with pretty much anyone. After a string of low wattage, unproven coaching hires the Chargers finally got serious. It should pay off.
Grade: A
5
Carolina Panthers: Dave Canales
The good news: no assistant in the league has been better at coaxing big turnarounds from flawed, former first round pick quarterbacks. Canales helped the Seattle Seahawks avoid a rebuild by revitalizing Geno Smith as Pete Carroll’s quarterbacks coach. He left Washington to be offensive coordinator for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where he took a team that signed 2022’s worst starting quarterback in what seemed like a blatant effort to tank. He won an NFC South title by making Baker Mayfield a top 10 adjacent passer.
Now he gets Bryce Young. The former top overall pick waded through a disgusting rookie campaign and is in dire need of someone capable of dragging him out of the muck.
The bad news: Canales’ success in Seattle and Tampa Bay relied on having a pair of dynamic, playmaking wide receivers capable of making life easier for his quarterback. He had DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett with the Seahawks. Mayfield’s redemption hinged on healthy seasons from Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The 2024 Carolina Panthers’ top two returning wideouts are some combination of 33-year-old Adam Thielen, Jonathan Mingo or Terrace Marshall Jr.
The Panthers don’t have a first round pick that could be used on an exciting young wideout and the last two they took on Day 2 were Mingo and Marshall, who astute viewers will notice have been bad at football so far. There’s a moderate amount of salary cap space to be spent, but Carolina has big deals looming for Brian Burns and Frankie Luvu (at least in theory) and may not have the resources to throw cash at a decent class of veteran free agents.
Fortunately for the Panthers, Canales is a rising star. He doesn’t have the cache to clash with ownership like Reich before him, suggesting he may be better suited to toe the line regardless of whatever nonsense owner David Tepper lays out before him. This should allow him a longer leash and the time to craft the roster in his image. It may take a while, but the QB whisperer’s success in Seattle and Tampa Bay suggests he’s the right man to point Young in the right direction.
Grade: B
6
Atlanta Falcons: Raheem Morris
Well, this was unexpected. After weeks of flirting with Bill Belichick, the Falcons went with a different veteran head coach — one with 20 fewer winning seasons than the former Patriot.
Atlanta’s desire for a defensive stalwart jumped from the east coast to the west, where Morris spent the last three seasons rebuilding his value as coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams. After a down year in 2022, he helped rebuild a defense returning just two players to start at least 10 games. Under his guidance, that group set the stage for a rally from 3-6 to a playoff spot.
That said, his Rams defenses weren’t especially good. Attrition and young replacements played a major role, but here’s where his units ranked in total DVOA each of the last three years.
- 2021: 3rd
- 2022: 18th
- 2023: 22nd
OK, not great. But that 2023 number belies the fact he turned overlooked prospects like Kobie Turner and Byron Young into above average starters and made a secondary filled with guys like Cobie Durant, Derion Kendrick, Jordan Fuller and Akhello Witherspoon an above-average unit. He’ll have more to work with in Atlanta, whose defense put the team in position to win the NFC South despite an offense that scored 0.294 points per play — tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers for fifth-worst in the NFL.
He’ll need a high level offensive coordinator to untangle a depth chart loaded with talent but light on production. It’s an appealing job that should attract some of the best rising minds in the business. Hiring the right one could be the difference between a playoff bid and a high draft pick next spring.
The question now is whether time out of the spotlight in Los Angeles helped Morris grow into the kind of coach who can put his past failures behind him — the failures Atlanta didn’t want in 2021. Morris has been undoubtedly useful as a coordinator. Whether or not that will translate to the top gig in his third opportunity as a head coach will determine if the Falcons can escape their own gravity.
Grade: C+, pending his offensive coordinator hire
7
Seattle Seahawks: Mike Macdonald
There’s a massive risk involved when you’re replacing the league’s oldest head coach — a man with NFL and NCAA championships — with its youngest. Macdonald is a 36-year-old with just three years of coordinator experience under his belt.
But Macdonald gets results. In his lone year designing the defense at the University of Michigan, the Wolverines ranked eighth among FBS programs by allowing just 17.4 points per game. He returned to the Baltimore Ravens, where he’d spent seven years as an assistant, to take over the DC position there (swapping between Harbaugh brothers at head coach) and ranked third, then first, in the NFL when it came to points allowed.
This is enormous for the Seahawks, who need someone capable of turning a defense loaded with stars into a constellation. Last year’s squad had veterans like Bobby Wagner, Quandre Diggs and Leonard Williams bolstered by rising players like Devon Witherspoon, Riq Woolen and Boye Mafe. Despite this solid talent, Seattle ranked 30th in defensive efficiency and failed to earn a playoff spot in a disheveled NFC.
Macdonald can help. He helped extract every bit of potential from first round picks like Patrick Queen and Kyle Hamilton. He turned Justin Madubuike into an interior wrecking ball. He turned Geno Stone into a starter and occasional game-changer.
The Seahawks needed someone who could make their defense as good on the field as it is on paper, particularly with Wagner and Williams facing free agency. Macdonald can be that guy. The question now is whether he can handle all the other responsibilities that come with a top job, or whether he’s best suited as a bang-up coordinator.
Grade: A-
8
Washington Commanders
Throughout the 2024 NFL Playoffs, it looked like the Commanders’ hesitance to land a head coach hinged on its top choice. Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson was busy guiding his team one win from the Super Bowl. Once his run ended, it stood to reason, the Commanders would make their move just like the Ravens did with Macdonald.
Except, nope. Johnson removed his name from head coaching consideration for the second straight offseason. Washington went back to the drawing board amidst a picked-over marketplace. Josh Harris’ first coaching hire went from potentially landing one of the hottest coordinators in the NFL to picking eighth in an eight-man draft.
Quinn isn’t a terrible consolation prize. He’s a respected defensive coordinator who built fearsome units with the Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys. In his last stint as head coach he won an NFC title with the Atlanta Falcons. As long as we stop there, things are great!
But Quinn oversaw 28-3. He had just one winning season in three-plus years after that, taking a team that was on the brink of a Super Bowl win to a 24-29 record in that stretch. He didn’t win a single coach’s challenge after 2017 (0 for 7).
Maybe he learned how to fix that tendency toward collapse in three years as a coordinator… under Mike McCarthy. But it feels much more likely he’s a perfectly fine head coach whose ceiling is the playoffs and not a Lombardi Trophy. He can handle a rebuild and turn the Commanders around with the right pieces, even if he’s not as interesting as Johnson.
Grade: C+, if through no specific fault of the team’s own
