Early evening summary
Rishi Sunak would almost certainly have known scientists were worried about his “eat out to help out” scheme during the pandemic, Sir Patrick Vallance has said, directly contradicting the prime minister’s evidence to the Covid inquiry. My colleague Peter Walker has a summary of the main points from Vallance’s evidence.
The inquiry has just published Vallance’s 241-page witness statement on its website. It includes this nugget. (The CMO is the chief medical officer, Prof Sir Chris Whitty.)
Michael Gove, the levelling up secretary, has identified 55 projects across the UK that will get funding worth a total of £1bn from the levelling up fund. The full list of projects from the fund’s round 3 allocation is here.
Updated
Despite reports that 11th hour consideration is being given to a range of ideas, the key points of what Jeremy Hunt will unveil on Wednesday was finalised last week, Conservative MPs believe.
Those from the party’s centrist wing are also feeling confident. One said:
People would be concerned if we were pursing things for what are essentially ideological reasons which, as we saw earlier this year, can have unintended consequences. The good news is that is not Rishi Sunak or Jeremy Hunt’s style.
We’re keenly aware that we have been through a period that damaged the party’s reputation for economic competence, so steadying the ship is really important.
The One Nation Caucus, which represents 106 Tory MPs, published a report today making a case for how the autumn statement could reclaim undecided voters by calling for greater aid for first-time homebuyers and simplifying tax rates to create a new lower top rate
Updated
Downing Street has denied reports (see 10.04am) that the cabinet is split over the legislation being prepared in response to last week’s supreme court judgment on the Rwanda policy. Asked if Rishi Sunak was finding it hard to get ministers to agree a joint approach, the PM’s spokesperson told reporters:
No. The prime minister was very clear about the approach the government is taking.
He’s working very closely with members of cabinet on the details of that following the judgment.
How Vallance described schools policy during Covid as 'complete chaos' and 'complete mess' at some moments
Samuel Jacobs, counsel for the TUC, is asking questions now.
He asks about an entry in Vallance’s diary for 6 August 2020. In it Vallance quotes Boris Johnson as saying he just wants pupils back in school and is “no longer taking this Covid excuse stuff”.
Q: Did you think the PM was being reckless?
Vallance says he was focused on evidence-based plans. He thought the government needed various options.
These are difficult questions, he says. He says you need to plan for school openings and closures.
Jacobs then shows another diary extract from 16 September 2020 in which he quotes Johnson as saying “maybe we should blame ourselves”. Vallance describes that as “a rare moment of truthfulness” and he talks of “complete chaos over schools”.
Asked why he wrote that, Vallance says he cannot remember. But it must have been what he felt that night, he says.
Jacobs shows another diary extract, from 3 January 2021. It describes schools policy as a “complete mess” and blames the Department for Education.
Again, Vallance says he cannot recall exactly what this was referring to. But he says he remembers being very worried at the time about the situation in London.
Jacobs shows a final entry, from 11 June 2020, in which Vallance refers to Jonathan Slater, the permanent secretary at the Department for Education, saying Gavin Williamson, the education secretary, should be kept away from policy development, but given an “illusion of ownership”. Vallance quotes Boris Johnson as seeming to endorse this.
Asked to elaborate on the relationship between No 10 and the DfE, Vallance says he was not an expert on how government departments related to each other.
When Jacobs puts it to him that this reflects badly on Williamson, Vallance says No 10 seemed to be saying things like this about quite a lot of people.
That’s the end of the hearing for today. The inquiry is back tomorrow at 10am, with Prof Sir Chris Whitty giving evidence.
Updated
Vallance says there was no scientific evidence to justify Covid 'rule of six'
Vallance is now being questioned by Rajiv Menon, counsel for three groups representing children.
Menon asks about a note in Vallance’s diary. He does not show the extract on screen, but he reads it out. Vallance said:
Sage pushing for “can’t we exempt children from rule of 6”. We said no. Not unless CMO wanted to revisit.
Menon asks Vallance to explain this.
Vallance says he thinks this refers to Sage (the Scientific advisory group for emergencies) wanting to exempt children from the rule of six, but the Cabinet Office not wanting to reopen the policy.
And he says the scientists did not really approve of the rule of six anyway. He says:
We didn’t actually think that that had an enormous basis on anything.
He says it was not possible to say why meeting in groups of six might be acceptable, but not in groups of eight or 10.
The fewer contacts you had, the less the risk of transmission, he says.
Updated
Back at the Covid inquiry Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s former chief scientific adviser, is now being questioned by Philip Dayle, counsel for the Federation of Ethnic Minority Healthcare Organisations.
Dayle asks Vallance about an entry in his diary where he describes a press conference, and says he and his colleagues had agreed in advance not to discuss ethnic disparities in Covid deaths.
Vallance says that is because, at that stage, they were still trying to establish what was causing these disparities.
Rain Newton-Smith, the director general of the CBI, is putting questions to Hunt. She says the last decade has been dismal for growth.
Hunt says productivity in the UK is 15% lower than in Germany. That means German workers produce in four days what British workers produce in five days.
That is not because Germans work harder than Britons, says Hunt. And he says the UK has a better record for innovation.
But Germany is better at developing skills, he says. They have a better system for technical innovation.
He says in the autumn statement he will announce measures to unlock business investment. And there will also be an overhaul of the planning system, he says.
Updated
Turning away from the Covid inquiry, Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is now taking part in a Q&A at a CBI conference.
Hunt starts by claiming that his autumn statement is not yet finalised, so he is still open to suggestions.
He says, now inflation is coming under control, the government can “start to shake off some of the defeatism and pessimism” about Britain.
He says he expected ridicule when he said he wanted Britain to be the next Silicon Valley. But, outside the US, it has the best universities and the best financial sector, he says.
"I feel a lot more positive about the UK economy than I did a year ago when I came in"
— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) November 20, 2023
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt tells the CBI conference he hopes the government can "start to shake off some of the defeatism and pessimism about the UK economy"https://t.co/loTtb96bI3 pic.twitter.com/qoIUH9QHiK
Updated
How Vallance complained about cabinet ministers being 'meek as mice' as they resisted second lockdown
Weatherby shows an extract from Vallance’s diary for 11 October 2020. This was in the period when a second lockdown was being debated, but resisted by the PM and other ministers. Vallance complains about ministers being “as meek as mice”. And he describes what was happening as a “massive abrogation of responsibility”.
Q: Is that your view?
Vallance says it is what he thought that night.
Updated
Pete Weatherby KC, counsel for Covid Bereaved Families for Justice, is asking questions now.
He starts by asking Sir Patrick Vallance to confirm that the Eat out to help out scheme would have increased the number of Covid deaths.
Vallance accepts that.
Updated
O’Connor showed the inquiry some excerpts from notes taken by Vallance ahead of the second lockdown.
On 26 October 2020 Vallance complained about Boris Johnson being “so inconsistent”.
On 28 October Johnson was still resisting lockdown.
And on 30 October Vallance said Johnson had still not defined his aims.
Updated
Inquiry sees diary entry quoting Dominic Cummings saying: 'Rishi thinks just let people die' as second lockdown debated
The “good innings” and “lack of leadership” extract from Vallance’s diary shown to the Covid inquiry (see 3.05pm) also quotes Vallance quoting Dominic Cummings (DC), the PM’s chief adviser at the time, saying, “Rishi [Sunak] thinks just let people die and that’s okay.”
This was 25 October 2020. Sunak was chancellor at the time.
Updated
'They've had a good innings' - how Johnson argued against second lockdown by saying he could accept more deaths
O’Connor is now asking about the events leading up to the second lockdown in the autumn of 2020.
He shows several extracts from Vallance’s diary in which Vallance describes Boris Johnson resisting pressure for tougher measures.
O’Connor refers to Johnson talking about being willing to let Covid rip. Asked if that was accurate, Vallance accepts that – but points out that Johnson may well have said the following day that he wanted no deaths at all.
In one extract for 25 October 2020 Vallance quotes Johnson as saying it does not matter if more elderly people die because “they’ve had a good innings”. Vallance recalls feeling, at the end of a meeting with Johnson, there was a “complete lack of leadership”.
Q: Is that still your view now?
Vallance says it must have felt as if there was a complete lack of leadership. Reading the extract, he says it “feels like quite a shambolic day”.
Updated
Vallance says Matt Hancock had habit of saying things during Covid crisis that weren't true
Back at the inquiry O’Connor quotes an extract from Vallance’s diary in which Vallace says Matt Hancock “explained things well for once”.
Several witnesses to the inquiry have been bitterly critical of Hancock, health secretary at the time. O’Connor says there are many references to Hancock in Vallance’s diary. He says he does not want to go through them all, but he says other witnesses found Hancock untrustworthy and unreliable, and he asks Vallance what he thought of Hancock.
Vallance replies:
I think he had a habit of saying things which he didn’t have a basis for.
And he would say them too enthusiastically, too early, without the evidence to back them up, and then have to backtrack from them, days later. I don’t know to what extent that was over-enthusiasm versus deliberate. I think a lot of it was over-enthusiasm, but he definitely said things which surprised me because I knew the evidence base wasn’t there.
Q: So he said things that were not true?
Yes, says Vallance.
Updated
David Cameron, or Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton, has just taken his seat in the Lords. Sky News has the clip.
Watch as David Cameron is introduced to the House of Lords.
— Sky News (@SkyNews) November 20, 2023
The former PM was appointed to the Lords last Monday so that he could be made foreign secretary in Rishi Sunak's refreshed cabinet.https://t.co/xItZsH7tea
📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube pic.twitter.com/BhifutOWeU
Updated
O’Connor also showed the inquiry an extract from Vallance’s diary in which Vallance accused the Treasury of “pure dogma”.
On 26 October 2021 Vallance wrote:
Economic predictions. HMT [the Treasury] saying economy nearly back to normal and plan B would cost £18bn. No evidence, no transparency, pure dogma and wrong throughout. I did think there was a lack of transparency on the economic side and it was difficult to know exactly what modelling had been done and what input there had been to various assertions and comments made.
Overall, it doesn't sound like Patrick Vallance was vastly impressed with Rishi Sunak's Treasury. pic.twitter.com/ruAuZ7hZFt
— Peter Walker (@peterwalker99) November 20, 2023
Updated
O’Connor shows the inquiry an extract from Vallance’s diary in which Vallance says the key lesson from lockdown was that you needed to go earlier and harder than you would want to.
O’Connor is now asking about the No 10 press conferences.
He shows the inquiry an extract from Vallance’s diary in which Vallance says he did not seek to have a role at press conferences.
Q: Were you concerned this compromised the quality of your advice?
Vallance says he thought it was helpful for him to be there explaining the science. But he says he became concerned when questions were asked about policy. Normally ministers would answer the policy questions, he says. But he accepts that people may have assumed the advisers were there to endorse the policy.
He says, on balance, he thinks it was probably beneficial overall having him and other science advisers there.
But if he had been told he could not do any more press conferences, “I would not have lost any sleep over it,” he says.
Updated
Vallance rejects suggestions Sage should have included economists, but says separate 'economic Sage' could be helpful
The Covid inquiry’s afternoon session has started. Andrew O’Connor, counsel for the inquiry, is asking about suggestions that there should have been an economic version of Sage (the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies) to conduct economic modelling.
Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s former chief scientific adviser, says he thinks there should be an academic centre for pandemic preparedness in the UK. It should be very multi-disciplinary, he says. It should include economists, who could model the economic impact of interventions like lockdowns, he says.
But he says he would not be in favour of getting Sage to do economic modelling itself. He says that would lead to it having to take decisions, balancing health and economics, which involved trade-offs which should be determined by ministers. And, given the uncertainties in pandemic modelling and economic modelling, what would come out would be “one almighty uncertainty”.
But he says he would be in favour of having a standalone “economic Sage”, providing advice on the economic impact of pandemic measures. He says he would be in favour of that, if the Treasury wanted it.
Updated
In the morning session the Covid inquiry was also shown an entry from Sir Patrick Vallance’s diary for 20 September 2020 in which he records Boris Johnson complaining about people wearing masks and speculating about people (Britons? human beings? – it is not clear) being “too shit to get our act together”.
It says:
5 hr of meetings with the PM. He came back from Battle of Britain memorial service and was distressed by seeing everyone separated and in masks – ‘mad and spooky, we have got to end it’. Starts challenging numbers and questioning whether they really translate into deaths. Says it is not exponential etc etc. Looked broken – head in hands a lot. ‘Is it because of the great libertarian nation we are that it spreads so much?’ ‘Maybe we are licked as a species’… ‘We are too shit to get our act together.’ We went round in circles and then the famous whiteboard emerges. Discussed Package A (mild [increase] measures) and Package C (full lockdown) and when and how to do a circuit breaker… eventually sort of agree circuit breaker and stricter measures… but PM keeps clutching at straws.
Boris Johnson in Sept 2020, being v gloomy: “Maybe we are licked as species… We're too shit to get our act together."
— Peter Walker (@peterwalker99) November 20, 2023
Patrick Vallance says, with understatement, offering scientific advice to Johnson was "difficult at times". pic.twitter.com/dCxXlHeGcX
Updated
Sunak says he will cut taxes 'over time' as he announces new economic priorities
Rishi Sunak has pledged to cut taxes “over time” in a speech that risks incurring the wrath of Conservative MPs impatient to see personal tax cuts announced as early as this week.
However, the prime minister’s announcement of what are intended to be five new key economics priorities almost went unnoticed at an event that was overshadowed by questions about the scale and type of tax cuts the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, may make in Wednesday’s autumn statement.
Britain faced a choice between a “big government” of high spending and taxes, which Sunak said was necessary in recent years, and a change in approach which would see an attempt to grow the economy through the “dynamism” of the private sector.
Now that inflation had been halved, he said, the government would take long-term decisions as part of the “next phase” of the government’s economic plan following a fall in inflation to 4.6% in October.
He listed them as reducing debt, cutting tax and rewarding hard work, building domestic and sustainable energy, backing British business and delivering world class education.
The priorities went largely unnoticed by the media until journalists approached Downing Street afterwards and were told that they were intended to be a significant moment.
They do not replace Sunak’s “five priorities” – ranging from halving inflation to “stopping the boats” – but were outlined in a speech at a north London college where the Conservative leader previewed the ways in which he is likely to differentiate his party from Labour in an election campaign.
As Hunt and a range of other ministers listened in the front row, Sunak used the speech to hint at business tax cuts to boost economic growth, promising to reduce the tax burden “carefully and sustainably”.
Sunak said:
Now that inflation is halved and our growth is stronger, meaning revenues are higher we can begin the next phase, and turn our attention to cutting tax.
We will do this in a serious, responsible way based on fiscal rules to deliver sound money and alongside the independent forecasts of the Office for Budget Responsibility.
And we can’t do everything all at once. It will take discipline and we need to prioritise. But over time, we can and we will cut taxes.
After the speech to an audience of local business and community leaders, Sunak claimed that the welfare system is not currently “sustainable” when asked about a possible squeeze on welfare payments in the autumn statement.
Declining to “pre-empt” any announcements on Wednesday, the PM said:
Our view on the welfare system is that it should be compassionate, it should be fair and it should be sustainable …
With over 2 million people of working age who are not currently working, that isn’t a good situation. It’s not sustainable for the country, for taxpayers. It’s not fair. But it’s also not compassionate to write people off.
In other section of his speech, Sunak sought to portray Labour as being in the pockets of trade unions and attempted to contrast his own and Hunt’s experience of being in business to his opponents, who he said “have no experience whatsoever over running a business”.
Updated
Vallance says he's surprised by Sunak telling Covid inquiry he can't recall scientists having concerns about eat out to help out
Just before the hearing broke for lunch Andrew O’Connor, counsel for the inquiry, asked about eat out to help out (EOTHO) – the Treasury subsidy for restaurants in the summer of 2020, which was subsequently blamed for helping to spread the virus.
Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser at the time, said that he and other scientists were not asked about it in advance. If they had been, they would have advised against, he said. “I think our advice would have been very clear on that.”
O’Connor presented an extract from Vallance’s witness statement in which he says it would have been “obvious to all involved” that scientists would have said, if they had been asked, that the scheme would increase infections.
O’Connor then presented an extract from Rishi Sunak’s witness statement, in which he claims that government scientists did not raise any objections with him to the EOTHO scheme.
O’Connor put it to Vallance that there was “a certain inconsistency” between Vallance saying it was obvious that scientists would not have backed the scheme, and Sunak saying no one raised objections.
Vallance replied:
Well, we didn’t see it before it was announced and I think others in the Cabinet Office have also said they didn’t see it before it was formulated as a policy. So we weren’t involved in the run-up to it.
And around that time lots of measures were being released. You’ll see repeated references in various minutes and notes and emails, and in my private notes, to our concern that people were piling on more and more things and this would come to drive R [the reproduction number] above one. I think that was discussed at cabinet as well.
So I think it would have been very obvious to anyone that this was likely to cause, inevitably would cause, an increase in transmission risk. And I think that would have been known by ministers.
O’Connor asked if Sunak would have known this too.
Vallance said he could not recall which meetings Sunak attended. But he went on:
I’d be very surprised if any minister didn’t understand that these openings carried risk.
Updated
Vallance recorded in his diary how No 10 wanted science 'altered', inquiry hears
O’Connor then presented extracts from Vallance’s diary in which he describes ministers trying to sideline the scientists.
In this extract, from June 2020, he says No 10 did not understand the 2- metre rule.
In this extract, also from June 2020, Vallance recalls an issue where he says No 10 wanted the science “altered”.
And in this extract, from July 2020, Vallance recalls Rishi Sunak, the then chancellor, talking in a meeting about the need to manage the scientists, not the virus. Sunak did not realise Chris Whitty was in the meeting too. Vallance says:
In the economics meeting earlier today they didn’t realise CMO (chief medical officer Sir Chris Whitty) was there and CX (then-chancellor Rishi Sunak) said ‘It is all about handling the scientists, not handling the virus’. They then got flustered when the CMO chipped in later and they realised he had been there all along. PM blustered and waffled for five mins to cover his embarrassment.
Asked about these interventions, Vallance played down the significance of them, suggesting that that was just what politicians did. He says generally the scientists were listened to.
UPDATE: Vallance said:
I think there were definitely periods when it was clear that the unwelcome advice we were giving was, as expected, not loved.
And that meant we had to work doubly hard to make sure that the science evidence and advice was being properly heard.
Now, it doesn’t surprise me that there were meetings that we were not included in, that’s normal.
We were, as I said, in No 10 probably for 45 minutes or an hour, and there were things going on all day, and political decisions as well, so it’s not surprising that we were not invited to things sometimes.
Updated
Vallance told the inquiry he favoured publishing the Sage minutes. O’Connor presented him with evidence from his diary showing that, when the Cabinet Office realised minutes were being published, it stopped posing questions to Sage for discussions at meetings because it did not want the public to know those options were being considered. Vallance said he favoured openness.
Johnson provoked 'incredulity' at meeting as he commented on what Covid graphs might mean, inquiry hears
O’Connor then showed some more extracts from Vallance’s diary about Johnson.
In this one, from February 2021, Vallance says it was a “real struggle” to get Johnson to understand graphs from the Covid dashboard.
And in this extract, from September 2020, Vallance records “incredulity” in the room as Johnson described the graphs as a “mirage” in a meeting.
Updated
Vallance says it is 'not unusual' for leaders in western democracies to have poor understanding of science
Vallance told the inquiry that Boris Johnson gave up studying science at the age of 15. He said Johnson would be the first to admit that science wasn’t his strong point.
But he said it is not unusual for politicians to have a poor grasp of science. He recalled a conversation with fellow scientists from other countries where one of them spoke about how hard it was to get their minister to understand exponential curves. They all laughed, because they had all had the same experience, he said.
Vallance said he thought Johnson may have deliberately pretended to misunderstand things, just as a means of checking his comprehension.
But he also said a poor understanding of science was “not unusual amongst leaders in western democracies”.
Updated
Vallance's diary provides Covid inquiry with multiple examples of Boris Johnson struggling to understand scientific advice
O’Connor asks about Boris Johnson’s understanding of scientific concepts. He shows the inquiry a series of extracts from Vallance’s diary which provide evidence of this.
This extract, from May 2020, describes Johnson as being “clearly bamboozled” by modelling on schools.
Here is another extract from May 2020 describing Johnson as being “confused” about different types of tests.
In this extract, from June 2020, Vallance says it is “awful” watching Johnson trying to understand statistics and that he finds the difference between absolute and relative risk “almost impossible to understand”.
In this extract, from July 2020, Vallance says Johnson did not understand the concept of doubling times.
And this one, from September 2020, says it is difficult getting Johnson to understand graphs – even when he has seen them before.
Updated
Vallance admits he was uncomfortable with claim government was 'following the science'
The hearing has resumed. Andrew O’Connor, counsel for the inquiry, asks about the repeated government claims that it was “following the science”.
Vallance says at first he welcomed this because it meant ministers were listening to the scientists. But the phrase implied that scientists all agreed, which was not the case, he says. And it misunderstood what science is, he says.
Science, by its definition, is a moving body of knowledge that tries to overturn things by testing the whole time.
He says ministers need to weigh up different types of evidence. He says those are “impossible judgement calls which the science can’t make and shouldn’t make”.
Updated
Scientists found it hard to get clarity on how many Covid cases it would take to overwhelm NHS, inquiry hears
Here are some more lines from what Sir Patrick Vallance said to the Covid inquiry before the break.
Vallance said that in the early days of the pandemic three scenarios were envisaged. He said:
In a sense, there were three broad possibilities. One: that the disease could be contained and eliminated.
The second: that the disease would run wild and not be controlled at all and people would make no effort to do anything. And the third was to try and control it in some way to minimise the impact.
And we didn’t know at that stage whether it was fully containable or not, but once it breaks out – and by the way, the breakout of containment domestically is dependent on the infrastructure you have, so the test [and] trace mostly – but once it breaks out, then my understanding from the beginning was the government did not want to do anything other than it didn’t want to let it run riot.
It didn’t think it could get to zero Covid, and therefore it was to control it and suppress the numbers in reference to the NHS being overwhelmed.
That was the closest we got to understanding the aims, coupled with a desire from the government not to impose overburdence and restrictions on liberty.
He said in his witness statement that no minister gave an estimate for what might be an acceptable number of deaths or infections “other than by reference to avoiding the NHS being overwhelmed”, the inquiry heard.
He said it was hard to get clarity on how many cases the NHS could cope with before it was overwhelmed. He said:
What we did know was that the NHS runs at pretty much 100% capacity, which is quite unlike most other countries. So we knew that the NHS capacity was likely to be very full anyway.
And trying to get precise numbers on ICU beds and occupancy of other types of high dependency beds was pretty difficult during February and I think it culminated in a meeting, which I think I asked to be set up the first day of March, with the NHS modellers to try and see if we can resolve this logjam.
He said in his witness statement the first lockdown came a week too late, the inquiry heard.
Updated
The inquiry is now having a 15 minute break.
Chris Whitty was a 'delayer' when it came to implementing lockdown-type measures at start of Covid crisis, inquiry hears
O’Connor then asked Vallance about Prof Sir Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, and he put it to Vallance that Whitty was more keen than he was to delay the introducing of lockdown-type measures.
This extract says in January 2020 Whitty thought Covid could be contained.
This extract says in February 2020 Whitty was “worried about pulling trigger too soon”.
And in this extract, from February 2021, Vallance says Whitty was “a delayer”.
Asked about Whitty’s stance, Vallance says it is important to remember that, as chief medical officer, Whitty was very aware of the health downsides of a lockdown, for example, from people not getting treatment for other conditions.
Updated
Vallance accepts science advisers were 'wrong' about when to push for lockdown-type measures at start of pandemic
Back at the Covid inquiry, Andrew O’Connor, counsel for the inquiry, is asking Vallance about the period in February and early March 2020, when the government was working out how to respond to Covid.
O’Connor shows an extract from the witness statement from Ben Warner, a No 10 aide. Warner said the government should have developed plans for a lockdown earlier.
Vallance says the government was not in a position to implement some of the NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions – lockdowns, social distancing, masks etc).
Q: Should Sage have been pushing for these measures earlier?
Vallance says the scientists thought these measures would be necessary. But he accepts they were wrong about timing.
Where we were wrong [was] our belief that we understood when to do that.
He says the data coming in on 14 and 15 March showed that Covid was much more advanced than they thought. The NPIs were needed urgently, he says.
He says there had been a data problem.
Here are tweets from journalists on the highlights from the Sunak speech and Q&A.
From ITV’s Robert Peston
The Chancellor will DEFINITELY cut personal income taxes on Wednesday, income tax or national insurance. If he doesn’t the PM will look incredibly foolish for saying this morning, repeatedly, that the moment has come to start cutting taxes, because he knows most voters don’t see the extension of capital allowances for business (though important and expensive) as tax cuts that matter to them. And Rishi Sunak is not a PM who creates expectations if he knows those expectations will be disappointed.
The Chancellor will DEFINITELY cut personal income taxes on Wednesday, income tax or national insurance. If he doesn’t the PM will look incredibly foolish for saying this morning, repeatedly, that the moment has come to start cutting taxes, because he knows most voters don’t see… pic.twitter.com/v4pzDInPs4
— Robert Peston (@Peston) November 20, 2023
From Robert Colvile, a Sunday Times columnist (and head of the Centre for Policy Studies, a Tory thinktank)
Sunak’s speech summarised: because I’ve made you eat your vegetables, I can now give you sweeties. In a judicious and responsible fashion. And Labour would snatch them away again.
— Robert Colvile (@rcolvile) November 20, 2023
From the BBC’s Iain Watson
Rishi Sunak is talking up tax cuts ahead of the autumn statement- he stresses 'we cant do everything at once' but 'we can turn our attention to cutting taxes' and because inflation has halved, 'we can begin the next phase and cut tax'
— iain watson (@iainjwatson) November 20, 2023
From my colleague Ben Quinn
Sunak, in north London ahead of the Autumn statement , says taxes can’t be cut “without a plan” pic.twitter.com/zKROR1fJTU
— Ben Quinn (@BenQuinn75) November 20, 2023
Subak is talking up his experience & Jeremy Hunt’s in businesses
— Ben Quinn (@BenQuinn75) November 20, 2023
“Our political opponents have got no experience whatsoever about running a business”
Cue fresh scrutiny of both men’s records (eg Hunt’s ‘HotCourses’)
But he tells us he’s “not a market fundamentalist”
— Ben Quinn (@BenQuinn75) November 20, 2023
When crisis hit the state has to step in
This feels a prototype election manifesto, with a lot of likely attack lines that’ll come in a campaign
— Ben Quinn (@BenQuinn75) November 20, 2023
.. differentiating from Labour on a range of fronts “they will allow unions to bring the country to a standstill with just a third of members support”
Sunak seems up for reopening confrontations with Tory low tax ultras like Liz Truss
— Ben Quinn (@BenQuinn75) November 20, 2023
Says he was willing to resign from govt and lose a leadership election because it's not possible "to borrow that amount of money" and for it not to have an impact
Q: On tax, wouldn’t it make more sense to just lower thresholds – instead of taking with one hand, and giving with the other (by reducing the headline rate).
Sunak says he has taken difficult decisions on tax.
Now, because he has halved inflation, and because the economy has outperformed, he is in a position to look at cutting taxes.
He says, when he became PM, everyone was forecasting a recession for this year.
He says, as he explained in his speech, the government will address tax cuts “seriously and responsibly”. The government will be disciplined, he says. And it will focus on supply side measures.
That is the end of Sunak’s Q&A.
Sunak says the number of small boat crossings have fallen by a third this year.
No one thought that was “remotely possible” when he made the pledge to stop the small boats, he claims.
But he says he is determined to finish the job.
He says he will not let a foreign court stop the UK sending planes to Rwanda.
Updated
Sunak says voters will face 'clear contrast' at election because Labour's £28bn borrowing plan means it couldn't cut taxes
Rishi Sunak has finished his speech, and is now taking questions.
He says Labour would put up borrowing by £28bn a year. That means it would not be able to cut taxes, he says.
He says there will be a “clear contrast” at the election.
Updated
Vallance says that some of what he was doing during Covid would have been done by anyone else in the post of government chief scientific adviser (GCSA).
But he says because of his medical training, and his knowledge of vaccines (he had worked for GlaxoSmithKline before taking the GCSA job), he was probably more involved than another GCSA might have been.
But he also says this does not mean that the GCSA should always be a health expert. In future, he says, climate change is likely to pose the biggest scientific challenge for the government.
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Sunak says government 'over time can and will cut taxes'
Rishi Sunak is delivering his economy speech now. This is from Ben Quinn, who is in the audience.
Sunak: "now that inflation is halved & growth is stronger, meaning revenues are higher we can begin the next phases & turn our attention to cutting tax. We will do this in a serious & responsible way"
— Ben Quinn (@BenQuinn75) November 20, 2023
" Over time we can & we will cut taxes"
Over time = income tax cuts in 2024?
We will post a summary of the speech once it is over. If possible, I will cover the Q&A in full, but the speech is not being covered live by the networks. Sky News and the BBC are focusing on Vallance.
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In his witness statement Vallance said his private diary was “never intended to be read by anyone else”, the inquiry was told.
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Vallance says he kept daily diary during Covid as means of 'decompressing', not for future publication
Sir Patrick Vallance, the former government chief scientific adviser, is giving evidence to the inquiry now.
He says the notes in his diary were written at the end of the day. It was a means of “decompressing”. That helped him focus on what he needed to do the following day.
He says he had no intention of publishing them. He did not even look at them again. He says he felt the world had “had enough” of Covid memoirs.
I had no intention whatsoever of these ever seeing the light of day or me looking at them again, and sort of felt the world probably had enough of books and reflections of people’s thoughts during Covid …
At the end of each day, often quite late in the evening, I would just spend a few minutes jotting down some thoughts from that day, and things and reflections, and did it as a way to get that, in a sense, out of the way so that I could concentrate on the following day.
These were private thoughts. They were instant reflections from a day. And once they were written, I actually never looked at them again.
They were put in a drawer and that was that. I certainly had no intention of doing anything else with them either.
He did not even show them to his family, he says.
“They were very much instant thoughts,” he says.
Q: Did you take notes at the time?
Vallance says he might have written some things during the day, and others at night.
He says his handwriting is very poor.
Q: You sometimes quote people directly. Did you note the quotes at the time, or from memory afterwards?
It could be either, says Vallance.
Andrew O’Connor, counsel for the inquiry, shows extracts from Vallance’s witness statement describing them.
UPDATE: Vallance also said he agreed with some of the points he made in his diaries, but had changed his mind on other points. He said:
Some of it, I look back and think: ‘Well, that seems like a sort of sensible series of reflections over that period’.
Others I look back and I can see I might have written something one day and then two days later written something that said: ‘Actually, I don’t agree with myself on that’, which may have been how somebody had behaved or somebody made an observation.
So they were very much instant thoughts.
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DWP alert about forthcoming statistical release implies Hunt may change how benefits uprated, former minister says
There has been speculation that in the autumn statement on Wednesday Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, will uprate benefits for next year in line with the CPI inflation figure for October, which was 4.6%, rather than the figure for September, 6.7%, the month normally used as the benchmark for annual uprating. Charities and campaigners claim this could cut benefits payments next year by £2bn.
Steve Webb, the former Lib Dem MP and pensions minister in the coalition government, has just posted this on X. He highlights an announcement from the DWP about a publication it is releasing on Wednesday. Webb says this implies the government will uprate in line with the October figure.
Benefit cuts alert - DWP just issued a notice (see below) of an ‘ad hoc’ publication on benefit upratings on Wednesday - in years where they simply pay inflation, they don’t do this. Looks like this will be their defensive doc, justifying using the more recent inflation figure.
Benefit cuts alert - DWP just issued a notice (see below) of an 'ad hoc' publication on benefit upratings on Wednesday - in years where they simply pay inflation, they don't do this. Looks like this will be their defensive doc, justifying using the more recent inflation figure. pic.twitter.com/O0JAJw3RQK
— Steve Webb (@stevewebb1) November 20, 2023
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Patrick Vallance gives evidence to Covid inquiry
It is a big week for government economic policy, but it is also a big week for the Covid inquiry, where the government’s two most important scientific advisers during the pandemic – Sir Patrick Vallance and Prof Sir Chris Whitty – are giving evidence on how the government responded as the crisis escalated. Vallance starts at 10.30am.
Vallance, who was the government’s chief scientific adviser at the time, kept a private diary during this period and some short extracts have already been released. We will probably hear further highlights today. From what we have seen, it is a much better read than the Matt Hancock “diary” and some of it makes gruesome reading for Boris Johnson and his colleagues.
In a thread on X starting here, the BBC’s Jim Reed has flagged up some of the excerpts published already.
Monday should be VERY interesting at #covidinquiryUK as Sir Patrick Vallance, then chief scientific adviser, gives evidence. We've already seen extracts from his private diaries or evening notes - described as a 'brain dump' to protect his mental health. Let's take a look... 1/n pic.twitter.com/xMC2Mnh6Bw
— Jim Reed (@jim_reed) November 18, 2023
Here is the one from August 2020 where Vallance describes “quite a bonkers set of exchanges” in a WhatsApp group including Johnson. The PM was “obsessed with older people accepting their fate and letting the young get on with life”, Vallance records.
This (below) becomes a recurring theme over the autumn, according to diaries and other documents. The idea that Boris Johnson is increasingly convinced we need to keep the economy open, because it's mainly/only older people affected by Covid. pic.twitter.com/eEIfP8qbji
— Jim Reed (@jim_reed) November 18, 2023
And here is the entry from December 2020 when he quotes Johnson as saying that Tory MPs think Covid is “just nature’s way of dealing with old people” and that he tends to agree.
By mid Dec England has emerged from 4-week national lockdown and back into the regional tier system. Clear Vallance is again frustrated with decision-making. Here he's saying one minute Johnson is dismissive of Covid risks, the next he's advocating tougher tier 3 restrictions. pic.twitter.com/4FsqinIzVc
— Jim Reed (@jim_reed) November 18, 2023
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Sunak could block Human Rights Act to force through Rwanda asylum plan
Rishi Sunak is considering blocking a key human rights law to help force through plans to send asylum seekers to Rwanda amid growing pressure from rightwing Conservative MPs, Rajeev Syal reports.
The Times has more on the row that this plan has generated within cabinet. In his story Steven Swinford reports:
Robert Jenrick, the immigration minister, is pushing for emergency legislation to disapply the Human Rights Act and direct courts to ignore the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) in asylum cases.
However, cabinet ministers including James Cleverly, the home secretary, Victoria Prentis, the attorney general, and Alex Chalk, the justice secretary, are said to have reservations about a hardline approach. One senior government source described the strategy as “mad”, saying the courts would go “ballistic” and questioning whether Sunak would be willing to endorse it.
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Here is a round-up of what the papers are saying about the autumn statement.
Steven Swinford in the Times says Jeremy Hunt is expected to cut national insurance and business taxes. Swinford says:
One government source said a cut in income tax was less likely than a cut in national insurance. There are concerns over the cost, £13 billion for a 2p cut, and because it would probably increase inflation as people had more money to spend. They suggested that Hunt was more likely to cut national insurance, particularly for self-employed workers, in an attempt to stimulate growth, because it would probably be cheaper and less inflationary.
The chancellor has been considering cutting inheritance tax and has assessed options including halving the rate from 40 per cent to 20 per cent. However, the issue became increasingly controversial after Labour attacked it as a tax cut for the wealthy during a cost of living crisis and some Tory MPs grew concerned. Inheritance tax cuts appear increasingly likely to be left until the budget in the spring.
The chancellor is expected to reduce business taxes. He is likely to extend “full expensing” — a tax relief allowing businesses to offset their investments against corporate tax — having concluded that the policy is less inflationary, and expensive, than previously thought.
But George Parker in the Financial Times says Tory MPs are hoping Hunt will announce a cut in the basic rate of income tax. Parker says:
The chancellor has shelved plans to cut inheritance tax until next year, raising Tories’ hopes that he could instead honour Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s promise to start cutting the 20p basic rate of income tax.
Sunak said last year that he wanted to lower the rate to 16 per cent by the end of the next parliament. A 1p cut from next April would be seen by MPs as a downpayment on that pledge. It would cost about £6bn, according to HMRC estimates.
Tory strategists had initially planned to hold back headline-grabbing income tax cuts until the spring Budget — closer to the likely date of the next election — but the party’s dire opinion poll ratings have put pressure on Hunt to act now …
A senior Tory insider said: “They’ve been looking at a 1p income tax cut. Number 10 needs a silver bullet. They need to do something to calm down the right of the party.” Hunt declined to rule out an income-tax cut.
And David Churchill in the Daily Mail says much the same. Churchill says:
Treasury officials have been examining how feasible a 1p or 2p cut would be ahead of Wednesday’s statement. They have ruled out relaxing the frozen thresholds around the levies.
Cutting income tax by 2p in the pound would cost £13 billion to £14 billion a year and save UK households around £450 annually on average. It would also give the Tories a much-needed boost ahead of the election, expected to be in autumn next year, as it trails Labour by 20-plus points in the polls.
Government rejects minister’s idea that rich pensioners should lose winter fuel payments
Good morning. After one of the most intense weeks for political news since Rishi Sunak became PM (Suella Braverman being sacked, David Cameron returning, the rest of the reshuffle, and the supreme court’s Rwanda judgment), we’ve got another news-packed five days starting now, mostly focused on the autumn statement on Wednesday. The Guardian doesn’t normally agree with Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg on anything, but the former business secretary has summed up what’s at stake in this quote for the Daily Mail.
We’ve had the net zero relaunch, the party conference relaunch, the King’s Speech relaunch and the reshuffle relaunch, none of which has made a difference to the polls. We now need the autumn statement relaunch which will actually connect with voters.
Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, hinted yesterday that the announcement could include personal tax cuts and there is a lot of speculation in the papers today, particularly the pro-Tory ones, about what this might involve.
MAIL: Are we finally on brink of a REAL tax cut? #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/moxM6b6ZZi
— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) November 19, 2023
Most of the reporting is somewhat speculative, but this morning a junior Treasury minister, Gareth Davies, has been giving interviews and on at least one issue he was able to be categorical.
This morning the Daily Telegraph has a report based on what John Glen told Cambridge University Conservatives at a private meeting last month when he was chief secretary to the Treasury. (He was moved sideways to paymaster general in the Cabinet Office in the reshuffle.) Glen suggested rich pensioners should stop getting the winter fuel allowance. The money would be better spent on addressing child poverty, he said. In his story, Ben Riley-Smith quotes Glen as saying:
I think we also need to come to terms with the fact that the triple lock is very expensive and how sustainable is that going forward in terms of pensions and all the other benefits?
Because my mother, she’s not very rich but she’s perfectly comfortable. She just texted me today aged 75 to say ‘I’ve just heard about my £500 winter fuel payment’ and I’m just like ‘you don’t need that’.
But finding a mechanism to try and ration that [the winter fuel payment] is very difficult because our HMRC system will look at household incomes. These are the sorts of mechanics of government you’ve got to look at.
Is it better if we spent more of that money on child poverty? It probably is. But these are the sorts of things I think we need to look at.
Good idea, you might think. But it is not going to happen. Davies told Sky News this morning:
We are not going to be touching the winter fuel allowance … We will always stand by our pensioners to ensure they have a dignified retirement and security in retirement.
There will be more on the economy because Rishi Sunak is giving a speech on the subject this morning, and taking questions from journalists. I will also be focusing quite a lot on the Covid inquiry where Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s former chief scientific adviser, is giving evidence.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9am: Rishi Sunak speaks at the opening of a global food security summit where he is due to launch the international development white paper.
10.30am: Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s former chief scientific adviser, gives evidence to the Covid inquiry. His evidence is due to last all day.
Mid morning: Sunak gives a speech on the economy and holds a Q&A with journalists.
11.30am: No 10 holds a lobby briefing.
2.30pm: David Cameron is introduced as a peer in the House of Lords.
4.45pm: Michael Gove, the levelling up secretary, speaks at the County Councils Network conference.
Also, David Lammy, the shadow foreign secretary, is on a visit to Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories.
If you want to contact me, do try the “send us a message” feature. You’ll see it just below the byline – on the left of the screen, if you are reading on a laptop or a desktop. This is for people who want to message me directly. I find it very useful when people message to point out errors (even typos – no mistake is too small to correct). Often I find your questions very interesting, too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either in the comments below the line; privately (if you leave an email address and that seems more appropriate); or in the main blog, if I think it is a topic of wide interest.
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