FORT WORTH, Texas — Democrat Beto O’Rourke may have outperformed Republican Greg Abbott in Fridays gubernatorial debate, but it’s unlikely to be enough to cause major changes in the race’s final weeks, experts say.
Early in the debate, moderators’ began with the topic of immigration, Abbott hit the Biden administration for its border policy and sought to connect O'Rourke to the Democratic president. Abbott touted Texas’ response, including the busing of migrants to other parts of the state.
“What we’re doing is making sure that we are keeping our communities safe, and this is completely different than the way things would be under Beto,” Abbott said.
O’Rourke fought back: “What we just heard from the governor is what we’ll likely hear over the course of this debate,” O’Rourke said. “He’s going to blame people like President Biden. He’s going to lie about my record, and he’s going to distract from his failures.”
Friday’s debate at the Edinburg campus of The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley is expected to be the sole debate between Abbott and O’Rourke ahead of the Nov. 8 election. O’Rourke has agreed to several town-hall style debates where voters can ask questions, but Abbott’s campaign said Friday’s debate would be the “first and only.”
Polling has consistently had Abbott ahead of O’Rourke in a state where it’s been years since a Democrat was elected statewide. But the margin has been in the single digits, with a Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday putting O’Rourke 7 points behind Abbott.
Immigration and border security was found to be the top issue among Texas voters in a poll by the Texas Politics Project at The University of Texas at Austin. It’s an issue that’s been central to Abbott’s campaign thus far. Following it in importance to voters were the economy, abortion and gun violence. The later two policy areas have been focuses for O’Rourke.
“Overall, O’Rourke performed well, and made multiple convincing points and at times had Abbott on the defensive, but nothing happened in this debate that is likely to move the dial in the race, which remains headed on course toward a Abbott victory, with the only question being if Abbott’s margin victory will be in the mid-single digits or mid-teens,” University of Houston Political Science Professor Mark Jones said in an email.
Leading up to the debate
The campaigns’ debate-day strategies previewed what was to come later in the evening.
Hours before Abbott and O’Rourke met on the debate stage, O’Rourke was joined by families whose children were killed in the shooting at Robb Elementary in Uvalde. They called for stricter gun laws following the attack where 19 students and two teachers were killed. They asked that O’Rourke be elected come November.
O’Rourke called for raising the age of purchase for assault-style firearms to 21. He also supports a “red flag” law and universal background checks.
“I think we have our answers,” said Kimberly Rubio, the mother of Lexi Rubio, during the news conference. Rubio was asked if there was anything she’d be listening for during the debate. “I think we’re interested in the rest of Texas seeing what a failure he is.”
Abbott’s campaign announced billboards in the Rio Grande Valley. Photos from the campaign showed one likening O’Rourke to President Joe Biden and a billboard touting employment figures under Abbott. Another featured O’Rourke’s presidential bid Vanity Fair cover where he was quoted saying “I want to be in it. Man, I’m just born to be in it.”
“Not so much,” the sign reads.
Linking O’Rourke to Biden has been a consistent thread by Abbott’s campaign. The president has had lackluster popularity in Texas.
“As Beto O’Rourke faces off against Governor Greg Abbott on stage at the debate, he won’t be able to run from his extreme liberal policies that are wrong for Texas,” Abbott’s Communications Director Mark Miner said in a statement. “The Beto-Biden agenda of open borders, defunding the police, and energy jobs would destroy the Lone Star State.”
In a email to reporters, the governor’s campaign highlighted what it cast as O’Rourke’s “extreme views” compared to Abbott’s “record of success” on issues of policing, border security, energy the power grid, the economy and education.
Ahead of the debate, O’Rourke opposed the event’s lack of an audience, blaming Abbott. Abbott’s campaign pushed back that the rules were agreed to weeks ago, and O’Rourke’s team was complaining at the last minute.
“Abbott wants the debate to be as least impact and visible as possible and to not provide the Beto campaign with any sound bites or video that that they can use in their ads,” said Mark Jones, a Rice University political science professor.
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