Two swing districts in New York are witnessing closely contested races as first-term GOP incumbents battle to retain their House seats.
In New York's 1st Congressional District, Republican Rep. Nick LaLota is currently leading the race with a three-point margin over his Democratic challenger, a former anchor. The latest poll indicates LaLota has 47% support compared to the anchor's 44%.
Meanwhile, in New York’s 4th Congressional District, Republican Rep. Anthony D'Esposito is facing a tougher challenge, trailing by 12 percentage points against Democrat challenger Laura Gillen, a former Hempstead Town Supervisor.
This race is a rematch from 2022 when D'Esposito narrowly defeated Gillen by four points.
The 1st Congressional District, which covers Suffolk County on eastern Long Island, predominantly supported former President Donald Trump in the past elections. The anchor's residency within the district has been a point of contention. The race has shifted from leaning Republican to likely Republican, according to the Power Ranking.
Vice President Kamala Harris is shown to be leading Trump by a slim margin in both districts, with a one-point lead in LaLota's district and a 12-point lead in D'Esposito's district.
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, a Democrat representing New York since 2009, is currently ahead in both districts. The poll also reveals that a significant portion of likely voters view Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul unfavorably, despite her not facing re-election until 2026.
These districts, along with nine others within a 90-mile radius of Manhattan, are expected to be pivotal in determining which party controls the U.S. House on Election Day. The region, spanning from Long Island through Connecticut, New York's Hudson River Valley, eastern Pennsylvania, and back into New Jersey, saw mixed results for Republicans in the 2022 midterm elections despite Trump's struggles in the area in 2020.
