We seem destined for an election where policy and performance run second to the way voters “feel” about leaders and candidates. That is good news for Labour.
Opinion: According to a rolling average of political opinion polls, the centre-right National/ACT bloc has been ahead of the Labour/Greens bloc since about May this year. But while the lead has been consistent it has not been substantial enough to yet be conclusive in terms of predicting the likely outcome of next year’s election. The trend certainly indicates declining support for the Labour Party, from the artificially high point of 2020, but while support for National has jumped since its disastrous performance at the last election, it now seems to have stalled, at a time when it should be steadily increasing.
Moreover, public opinion polls do not always get things right. In the recent United States’ midterm elections, for example, polls had been suggesting for some time the odds-on likely outcome was a sweeping victory for the Republicans in the House of Representatives, and regaining control of the Senate by a smaller margin. But in the event, the Republicans only scraped to the narrowest of wins in the House, while the Democrats retained control of the Senate and may yet increase their dominance if they retain the Georgia seat at the forthcoming run-off election.
One explanation offered for this unexpected result has been that voters, faced with two parties that did not really inspire them, looked to other, more emotive factors in deciding whom to vote for. In words reminiscent of the classic Australian film The Castle they focused on the “vibe” of candidates, rather than their policies.
The “vibe” factor was most strongly demonstrated in the Pennsylvania Senate race where the Democrat candidate, John Fetterman, won the seat from the Republicans – the only Senate seat to change hands so far. Fetterman, the hoodie-wearing Lieutenant-Governor of Pennsylvania, whose “vibe” was everyman, won ahead of the more favoured Trump-backed television doctor, Mehmet Oz, whose “vibe” was described as carpetbagger, rich-guy, and quack doctor. Policies counted for little in this race – it was Fetterman’s more solid “vibe” that determined the result.
Something similar could occur here next year, where a lack of enthusiasm for both the major parties and a lingering wariness about the minor parties, could see voters looking more to the “vibe” of the major party leaders than their policies.
In this regard, the findings of a recent Reid Research/TV3 poll are instructive. Respondents were asked to provide one-word descriptions of Jacinda Ardern and Christopher Luxon. The four words most linked to Ardern were “good”, “caring”, “kind” and “useless”. For Luxon, the most common words were less specific – “Don’t know”, “unsure”, “unknown” and “businessman”. So, while the Prime Minister comes across as good, well-meaning but ineffectual, the National leader is still a largely blank page, remembered more for his business background.
While neither would be especially satisfied with these descriptions, Ardern emerges in the more positive position. Far better to be seen as a good and caring leader with her heart in the right place, but not all that good on achievement than still being largely unknown, as Luxon is, after just over a year as National’s leader.
None of these “vibes” will count for much if the mood for change is strong enough at election time, but there have been signs over the past few weeks that Luxon’s lack of public impact is starting to catch up on National. The party’s ratings have begun to stagnate and fall, and Luxon’s own personal ratings, having climbed steadily during the year, are now slipping back too. His recent policy snafus will not have helped that.
If the “vibe” becomes more important than policy, Luxon’s current non-image and wider doubts about what he really stands for, will make it more difficult for National to capture the public imagination
All this has been a godsend to Ardern. While still struggling to persuade voters she is more than just warm, caring, and well-meaning, Labour has now started to contrast more sharply Luxon’s political inexperience with Ardern’s handling of the Christchurch terrorist attack, the Whakaari/White Island, and Covid-19. The none-too-subtly implied question is “who would you best trust in a crisis?”. Voters are left to draw the obvious conclusion for themselves. Expect this to become a more pronounced theme next year, especially if Luxon remains largely unknown to the public, and Labour continues to shed support as the recession bites and living standards fall.
When it comes to policy, Labour and National are showing themselves as equally unimaginative. National’s announcement of boot-camps for offenders was the reannouncement of a plan most National leaders since Muldoon have toyed with at some stage. This time, they could not even manage to modernise the language so it sounded more suited to the 2020s, rather than the 1970s!
For its part, Labour’s hate-speech announcement was simply embarrassing. Labour politicians have been promising comprehensive hate-speech legislation since Helen Clark’s time, almost two decades ago. The very timid minor change just announced showed little more than how far this government has run away from being “transformational” in the way the Prime Minister promised on coming to office in 2017.
In these circumstances, it is beginning to look more and more like we are heading towards a “vibe” election like the recent United States’ midterms. Despite the serious challenges facing the country in the new post-Covid-19 international socio-economic environment we seem destined for an election where policy and performance run second to the way voters “feel” about leaders and candidates.
That is good news for Labour. The centre-left has always been able to outscore the centre-right when it comes to compassion and tugging at the nation’s heart strings. If the “vibe” becomes more important than policy, Luxon’s current non-image and wider doubts about what he really stands for, will make it more difficult for National to capture the public imagination, thus giving Labour the chance of a victory that seemed unlikely just a few weeks ago.
To prevent that, over the months ahead Luxon must project attractive, modern policies that show clear direction. His “vibe” needs to be as the leader to take New Zealand forward. He will not become Prime Minister without it.
