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AAP
AAP
Roger Vaughan

Good, bad or ugly? What makes AFL succession plans work

Ken Hinkley's right-hand man Josh Carr will replace him as Port Adelaide coach at the end of 2025. (Michael Errey/AAP PHOTOS)

An AFL coaching succession plan, like beauty, is all in the eye of the beholder.

Simon Goodwin, Melbourne's 2021 premiership coach, speaks glowingly about the concept. Nathan Buckley chooses his words carefully. Sam Mitchell would prefer to not speak about it at all.

And right now, in the wake of Sunday night's big win, Ken Hinkley and Josh Carr look like geniuses at Port Adelaide.

Who better to talk about the politics involved than SA premier, and Port supporter, Peter Malinauskas.

In a wide-ranging panel discussion during Sydney's Gather Round breakfast, Malinauskas distilled it down to the most valuable commodity in footy - winning.

Port Adelaide head coach Ken Hinkley
Ken Hinkley's side had an underwhelming 1-3 start to the season, then smashed Hawthorn. (James Ross/AAP PHOTOS)

As he predicted two days out from their first-half mauling of Hawthorn, a big win at home after a spluttering start to the season would significantly ease the pressure on the Power and Hinkley.

"They're in between a bit of a rock and a hard place," the premier said.

"The club's calculation was they're going through the whole year being asked about what's happening with Ken, unless they resolve the matter. They thought they'd get on the front foot.

"If you win a few games it looks brilliant, and if you lose a few games people question it. That's the harshness of footy.

"But winning cleanses all sins - I'm not saying that is a sin - but winning makes a big difference."

It is two months since Port announced this is Hinkley's last season as their senior coach.

His assistant Carr, who has an impeccable CV for becoming a first-time AFL coach, will be in charge from next season.

On the same stage as Malinauskas, AFL great Garry Lyon mused about the other key intangible about succession - the incumbent coach must be 100 per cent on board.

Paul Roos enthusiastically handed over to John Longmire at Sydney and again to Goodwin at Melbourne. Longmire, realising it was time, resigned in late November and passed the baton to Dean Cox.

Mick Malthouse walked away from Collingwood with steam coming out of his ears after they won the 2010 flag and lost the 2011 grand final, making way for Buckley.

"I don't know if you realise, there were some teething problems," Buckley said.

"No one in this room would have any idea about whether it's going to be a positive or successful, because we'll know in about four or five years when we look back."

Hawthorn Hawks player Sam Mitchell
Sam Mitchell and Alastair Clarkson's handover plan fell apart despite their premiership-laden bond. (Julian Smith/AAP PHOTOS)

Hawthorn's succession plan spectacularly imploded in mid-2021, just three weeks after they announced a schedule for Mitchell to succeed Alastair Clarkson.

They were supposed to work alongside each other the following year, but Clarkson made way for Mitchell at the end of '21.

But was it a failure? Using Buckley's criteria, and given Hawthorn made a semi-final last year, it might be short-term pain for more long-term glory.

The obvious seduction for clubs is when it works - and Goodwin taking over from Roos in 2017 is Exhibit A - it really is a thing of beauty.

It is easy to forget, given the Demons' well-documented current woes, that they made a preliminary final in 2018 and won their drought-breaking premiership three years later. 

Simon Goodwin
Simon Goodwin shows what a coaching succession looks like when it works really well. (Richard Wainwright/AAP PHOTOS)

"I'm a big fan of succession planning. I can only talk from a personal experience of how it was with myself and Roosy - he gave me a great lead-in to becoming a senior coach," Goodwin said soon after the Hinkley-Carr plan was announced.

"Roosy was fantastic for me in that space. Not every succession plan is the same and it really does come down to the relationship that you have and how you set the parameters up early.

"Josh clearly is going to be an outstanding coach, from everything you hear. This year will be a really important one for him."

Carr was a hard nut as a Port player who butted heads on the field with Goodwin and Mitchell.

At the Port media conference to announce the handover, Carr joked about whether Goodwin or Mitchell would take his call if he sought advice about the process.

Melbourne coach Paul Roos
Paul Roos and Simon Goodwin both kicked goals while transforming Melbourne into a premiership force. (Julian Smith/AAP PHOTOS)

"I'd definitely take Josh's call, I've spoken to him a few times ... since playing days," Goodwin said.

"It's so hard for me to talk about what he should do. I know what it was like for me, and mine was about supporting Roosy, supporting the players, supporting the program - getting a great understanding of where we sit and how we'd progress that club, continue that transition as smoothly as possible.

"It gives you a clear understanding of where your club's at, and that was really important for me."

Whatever happens this season, there will come the point when Carr takes over. Then the question is, can he coach?

And that is a whole new story.

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