On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs reported a blockbuster round of earnings for the final quarter of 2024, while CEO David Solomon told analysts he’s optimistic about business under the incoming administration. Goldman’s profit roughly doubled in Q4 thanks in large part to surging revenues from deal-making, underwriting, and trading, and many investors are bullish about a second Trump term unleashing an M&A boom fueled by sweeping deregulation.
Solomon's optimism is grounded in part by Goldman's share performance. The day after the election, the investment bank's shares spiked 13% and, after a surge of 6% on Wednesday, the stock is up nearly 60% in the past 12 months.
At a conference hosted by the National Retail Federation on Tuesday, Solomon claimed regulations under Joe Biden’s administration had discouraged investment. A day later, he told analysts that CEO confidence has jumped following Trump’s election win.
“Additionally, there is a significant backlog from sponsors and an overall increased appetite for deal-making supported by an improving regulatory backdrop,” he said Wednesday. “I'd say there's been a meaningful pickup in large-cap M&A dialogue and inquiry.”
But Solomon emphasized he doesn’t have a crystal ball, and on Tuesday, he warned the new administration would have to get its approach to tariffs and immigration policy right if Trump doesn’t want to slow growth.
“I’m quite optimistic,” he said, “but we’re in a more fragile place,” the Financial Times reported.
Investors demand 'crash protection'
Recent activity in the options market suggests traders increasingly share that sentiment. The CBOE SKEW Index is an attempt to gauge “left-tail risk”—statistician-speak for a market swoon. The higher the level of the index, the more concerned you should be (at least in theory) about an equity sell-off as investors bid up the relative price of "crash protection," or S&P 500 options that only generate profit if stocks plunge.
The index hit an all-time high when markets closed on Christmas Eve before falling at the start of January and then spiking again this week. While technical factors complicate how much of the SKEW’s rise truly captures increased hedging demand, buyers may be protecting themselves in case Trump roils markets by drawing a hard line on taxing imports or pursuing mass deportations.
Goldman’s chief global equity strategist, Peter Oppenheimer, recently recommended that investors consider purchasing downside protection as the market becomes “increasingly vulnerable to a correction.”
“While we remain broadly positive on equities,” he told clients in a recent note, “the risks of near-term disappointment are rising,” CNBC reported.
On Wednesday’s earnings call, Solomon noted this uncertainty. Revelations about the new administration’s approach to immigration, trade, tax, and energy policy, he said, could shift sentiment.
“I think we all should be on our toes and be prepared for the unexpected,” he said.
