Global consumption of coal is set to reach a new peak in 2024 – driven by rising demand in China, India and Indonesia, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest report, released Wednesday.
The IEA’s Coal 2024 report forecasts that global demand will surpass 8.9 billion tonnes this year, marking the third consecutive annual record.
The agency now predicts coal consumption will peak in 2027, revising earlier estimates that projected a peak this year.
China, the world’s largest coal consumer, is expected to burn 4.9 billion tonnes of coal in 2024 – a record high. The surge is driven by rising electricity needs and continued reliance on coal-fired power plants.
While China has heavily invested in renewables like wind and solar, its coal consumption remains substantial. China accounts for over one-third of the world’s total coal usage.
Emerging economies like India and Indonesia are also increasing their coal consumption, offsetting declining demand in advanced economies such as the United States and the European Union.
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Hot year, rising emissions
The report comes as 2024 is on track to be the hottest year in recorded history, according to the EU’s climate monitor Copernicus.
Scientists have repeatedly warned of the urgent need to cut greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate the catastrophic effects of climate change.
“Our models show global demand for coal plateauing through 2027 even as electricity consumption rises sharply,” said Keisuke Sadamori, IEA director of energy markets and security.
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Transition challenges
Efforts to transition away from coal remain slow, with countries struggling to commit to phasing out fossil fuels. Cop29, held this year in Azerbaijan, failed to deliver stronger global commitments to reduce coal usage.
The IEA highlighted that countries like Turkey now import more coal than the EU, as European reliance on coal continues to fall.
However, geopolitical developments, such as the possible return of Donald Trump to the US presidency, could disrupt climate progress.
Trump has previously dismissed climate change as a “hoax”, raising concerns about weakening global climate commitments.
