Planet-warming pollution is expected to increase 9 percent by the end of the decade under the current climate plans of nearly 200 countries, raising alarm among United Nations leaders two weeks before the start of international climate talks.
The grim assessment was released Tuesday in a report by the U.N. climate change secretariat that highlighted the shortcomings of global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Scientists previously have said carbon emissions must fall 43 percent by 2030 over 2019 levels to prevent temperatures from increasing more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Instead, they're still rising, though at a slower rate than last year.
“Today’s report shows that governments combined are only taking baby steps to avert the climate crisis,” the U.N.'s climate change executive secretary, Simon Stiell, said in a statement, adding that "bold strides forward" are needed at the climate talks that begin in Dubai on Nov. 30.
The 9 percent increase in emissions over 2010 levels is down slightly from the 11 percent rise highlighted in last year’s report. If measured against a 2019 baseline, emissions are projected to peak before 2030 and fall 2 percent by the end of this decade.
“Governments must not only agree that stronger climate actions will be taken but also start showing exactly how to deliver them,” Stiell said.
The report assesses the plans of all 195 countries participating in the Paris climate agreement — known in U.N. jargon as nationally determined contributions, or NDCs.
Twenty countries submitted new or updated plans since the last assessment period ended in September 2022, including the host of this year’s climate talks, the United Arab Emirates. Climate Action Tracker, which monitors government efforts to reduce emissions, described the UAE plan as insufficient because the country is on track to miss its climate targets.
Tuesday's report builds on previous analyses showing the failure of nations to increase funding for adaptation and reduce investments in fossil fuel production.
A report card released by the U.N. in September showed that the world is not on track to limit global warming eight years after the Paris Agreement was finalized. Officials will be expected to come up with a plan for reversing those shortfalls in Dubai, while pledging financial and technical support to tackle intensifying disasters.
Pressure is building on countries to act aggressively, including through a new process of setting stronger 10-year climate targets beginning in 2025. That process will begin in earnest following the Dubai climate talks known as COP 28.
The UAE presidency has been pushing countries to commit to tripling renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency. Nations are also being asked to pledge money for a new climate fund to address unavoidable disasters known as loss and damage, and to double adaptation financing.
Ensuring that emissions peak before 2030 will require widespread action by wealthy nations and much larger financial contributions for cash-strapped countries to respond and adapt to storms, floods, droughts and other impacts, the U.N. report said.
“This is a question of those that can, doing absolutely everything possible they can, to deliver their own transition and support the transition of others who have done less to cause this crisis,” said Stiell, who called for a phaseout of fossil fuels.
Another report released Tuesday by a coalition of nonprofits found that progress is lagging on dozens of key climate indicators — everything from phasing out coal-fired power to boosting wind and solar generation to reducing deforestation.
The report, called the State of Climate Action, looks at what different sectors of the economy should be doing to limit warming to 1.5 C over preindustrial levels. Of the 42 indicators it said are needed to meet that target, just one is on track to dramatically reduce emissions: the sale of electric vehicles.
