Virginia hasn’t gone for a Republican for president in nearly 20 years. But after Glenn Youngkin’s upset victory there two years ago, the GOP is verging on total control of state government.
It’s a potential sea change with major implications for 2024. And it’s turning Virginia’s off-year elections — which kick off with primaries on Tuesday — into some of the most hotly contested races in the country.
If Republicans achieve dominance, Youngkin could see his star rise even further. Youngkin, who hasn't entirely closed the door on running for president, could use total control of the state legislature to pass a conservative agenda in a blue-leaning state.
And of course, what happens in Virginia is always viewed as a sign of things to come.
“This is not just about the biggest election of 2023, here in Virginia, it's also the first battle of 2024,” said Susan Swecker, the chair of the state Democratic Party. “Because trends [in Virginia] tell us a lot about the next year, whether it's in Virginia or nationally.”
Youngkin has been raising millions of dollars into his PAC and cutting an early ad campaign in mid-May in battleground seats that pumped up his political agenda.
He has been trying to mold the state Republican Party in his image, endorsing downballot candidates, with releases from his PAC pointedly noting that he has waded into 10 contested Republican nominations.
Youngkin is undoubtedly exercising an unusual level of control because he sees his success this November as closely tied to his political future. Earlier this year, he demurred when asked by POLITICO about his calculations for running in 2024, saying he was focused on the state. And after Youngkin was asked if he was running for president “this year” at an event in early May and answered “no,” aides scrambled to stress that this did not shut the door on him launching a last-minute bid down the road.
“The governor is solely focused and committed on what we have to do over the next 144 days,” Dave Rexrode, the chair of Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC, told POLITICO recently when asked about 2024. “His whole focus, our organization's whole focus, everything we're doing is completely focused on maintaining our majority in the House and flipping the state Senate. And that's enough to keep us busy.”
For Democrats, this is a battle that goes far beyond just trying to stymie a would-be presidential hopeful. It is about reclaiming control in a blue state — and the potency of abortion as an issue to motivate their voters to get to the polls.
Earlier this year, Democrat Aaron Rouse flipped a state Senate seat in a special election in a race that attracted an unusual amount of attention from both pro-abortion rights and anti-abortion groups. A nonprofit affiliated with the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the party’s primary arm for downballot races, has already released ads on abortion access in Virginia.
“The threat to Virginians is if Glenn Youngkin wins two chambers and has a trifecta,” said Swecker. “It's only thanks to Virginia Democrats that we are the only state in the south without an abortion ban.”
Youngkin has backed a proposed ban on abortion after 15 weeks, which the Democratic-controlled Senate rejected.
And for Republicans, the November elections are an opportunity to provide Youngkin a unified government to pass his agenda. The split legislature has been stuck in a long-running feud over the state budget and proposed tax cuts from Youngkin, among other sticking points.
“Having the House and Senate that [Youngkin’s] able to work together with to get some real meaningful reforms on would be good for the Commonwealth,” Rexrode said.
But first, both parties must navigate a tricky primary season on new maps. This is the first election since the pandemic-era census redrew maps in Virginia. Ultimately, the state Supreme Court stepped in and appointed special masters to draw the lines. Both parties believe they have viable paths to a majority in each chamber — but the court-drawn maps were made without regard to where incumbents lived, and this primary could remake state politics.
Over a third of the state House is calling it quits or running for another office, and at least a quarter of the upper chamber is retiring, according to an analysis from the Virginia Mercury. And many of the senators that remain are facing primary challenges.
Virginia is one of just two states with a split legislature; Republicans have a slim majority in the state House, while Democrats have a narrow hold on the state Senate. All 140 seats across the two chambers are up in November.
Here are five elections to watch on Tuesday:
The biggest intra-party fight for Democrats
A handful of longtime Democrats serving in the state Senate are facing primary challengers, but perhaps none more prominently than Sen. Joe Morrissey, who is facing former Del. Lashrecse Aird.
Aird has centered her campaign around abortion rights to challenge the self-described “pro-life” Morrissey. But she may have another thing going for her: Morrissey is among the most scandal-plagued figures in Richmond.
He was a member of the state House for years before resigning after he was convicted of contributing to the delinquency of a minor and served jail time. (He later married and is now divorcing that same woman. She is alleging abuse, which Morrissey denies.) He won a special election to fill his House seat that he resigned from while serving a jail sentence. He won his Senate seat in 2019.
The six Democratic women in the Senate endorsed Aird.
‘Trump in Heels’ faces a big primary challenge
Republican Sen. Amanda Chase — a controversial supporter of former President Donald Trump, who was censured in 2021 by her colleagues for describing Jan. 6 rioters as “patriots” — is facing a significant primary challenge in her red-leaning district.
The self-described “Trump in Heels,” who finished third in the 2021 Republican gubernatorial nominating convention, is facing two challengers on Tuesday: former state Sen. Glen Sturtevant and nonprofit exec Tina Ramirez.
Chase’s two opponents have attacked each other in the contest, both trying to present themselves as a conservative without the baggage. Youngkin has remained neutral in the race after Chase campaigned for him as a key surrogate in 2021.
Two former rising stars try to come back from the wilderness
Two former rising Democratic stars are trying to claw back to political relevance.
Former Dels. Jennifer Carroll Foy — who finished second in the 2021 Democratic gubernatorial primary behind former Gov. Terry McAuliffe — and Hala Ayala, who was McAuliffe’s running mate for the general election, are facing off for an open Senate seat in Northern Virginia. The one-time allies have tweaked each other on the trail as each tries to return to Richmond.
Ayala has the backing of McAuliffe for the blue-leaning seat.
Youngkin plays kingmaker in a battleground
Youngkin waded into a handful of competitive primaries, and one of the biggest is in a crucial Senate seat. There, Youngkin backed state Del. Tara Durant over Matt Strickland, a businessman who railed against Covid-era restrictions. Races like this one will test Youngkin’s power among the Virginia GOP rank-and-file.
The seat is an open race for a Fredericksburg-area Senate district, and will be a crucial district in the battle over the majority in the chamber. Youngkin carried it by about 9 points in 2021, although Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) did win the district in 2018.
Democrats, too, have a competitive primary between attorney Ben Litchfield and veteran Joel Griffin.
The battle between longtime Democrats
Many were expecting a handful of incumbent-on-incumbent primary fights, after redistricting double (or even triple) bunked them. But the only Democratic one that emerged pitted two longtime lawmakers against one another.
In Hampton Roads, Sens. Louise Lucas and Lionell Spruill are facing off in an incredibly expensive and acrimonious race. The two have been among the top fundraisers in the state, and have attacked one another on the air, an unusual development in normally low-spending legislative primaries.
The winner on Tuesday will almost assuredly capture the seat in the fall.
