When was the last time the New York Giants had an impact rookie on their roster? 2018 with Saquon Barkley? 2014 with Odell Beckham Jr.?
This year, with Malik Nabers — the LSU star receiver the Giants selected with the sixth overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft — they could finally have another one.
Mike Clay of ESPN is predicting a productive season from the fleet rookie this fall.
Clay is projecting that Nabers and Marvin Harrison, Jr (taken fourth overall by Arizona) will both follow the path of several other wideouts taken in the top 10 and put up big numbers as rookies.
Clay predicts Harrison will post 1,116 receiving yards and Nabers will be right on his tail with 1,032 yards.
I’m placing these two together because the evidence for why these prop lines are too low is roughly the same for both players. Take a look at the production of wide receivers who, like Harrison and Nabers, were selected with a top-six draft pick over the past decade: Amari Cooper (1,070 yards, 16 games), Sammy Watkins (982, 16), Ja’Marr Chase (1,455, 17), Corey Davis (375, 11), Jaylen Waddle (1,015, 16).
It’s a small sample, but four of the five wideouts produced at least 982 yards, with Davis (who missed five games) the only one to fall short. If we include all rookie WRs during the 10-year span, 16 reached 851 yards, and nine of them cleared 1,000. And several of those performances came prior to the league expanding to a 17-game regular season.
The eight rookie WRs picked in the top 10 who appeared in 12-plus games over the past decade averaged a 24% target share (seven of eight in the 22-25 percent range), which suggests both Harrison and Nabers — who have minimal target competition — will be heavily utilized right out of the gate.
Other analysts and experts are waffling on Nabers’ rookie production citing the Giants’ uncertainty at quarterback. Daniel Jones has not passed for more than 3,205 yards in a season and backup Drew Lock has not passed for over 3,000 yards in any of his four seasons in the NFL.
But Nabers could benefit from being the Giants’ top outside and deep threat as well as an increased number of targets with Saquon Barkley gone and tight end Darren Waller’s possible retirement.
