Closing summary
Thanks for joining our live coverage of the German election – we’re closing now but we’ll be back soon to bring you all the latest news. In the meantime, here’s a summary of the key developments:
The final results confirmed Friedrich Merz and his CDU/CSU alliance on 28.5%, the AfD in second place on 20.8% – its best result ever – the SPD slumping by 10 percentage points to 16.4% and the Greens to 11.6%. The Left has surged to 8.8% and the liberal FDP – which triggered the early election by collapsing Olaf Scholz’s coalition – along with the far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance failed to meet the 5% threshold required top get into parliament.
The results mean Merz could form a so-called “grand coalition” with the SPD, without needing to find a third party. That would mean a future government would be more stable and less fractious than for example Scholz’s.
The Social Democratic party was left reeling on the back of a historically low vote share, with outgoing chancellor, Olaf Scholz, admitting it was a “bitter result”.He said he would not be involved in any coalition talks with the CDU/CSU, with other SPD leaders expected to lead.
Merz hailed “a historic election evening,” and acknowledged the responsibility and the scale of the task ahead. He said he planned to form a coalition by Easter and told party faithful that “the world out there is not waiting for us and for lengthy negotiations.”
Speaking on a post-election panel of party leaders Merz also acknowledged the foreign policy challenges ahead. “After Donald Trump’s statements last week, it’s clear: this American government doesn’t care for Europe,” he said. “We need to see whether we don’t need to become more quickly independent in Europe in terms of our defence capabilities,” he added.
Alice Weidel, co-leader of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) called the result “historic” for her party, having doubled the number of votes from 2021. Weidel said her party remained open to coalition talks with other parties, and said excluding the AfD was the equivalent to “voter fraud”.
The AfD swept all five former East German states: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Brandenburg, Saxony-Anhalt, Saxony and Thuringia. It won well over 30% of the vote in each state and as much as 38.6% in Thuringia – that’s where the AfD made history in September as the first far-right party to win a state election since the second world war.
Christian Lindner, the leader of the liberal FDP whose falling out with Scholz triggered the collapse of his coalition government and paved the way for early elections, resigned after his party failed to reach the 5% threshold to re-enter parliament. In a post on X, he said would retire from active politics and said he hoped the election would bring a “new start for Germany”.
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Berlin-based journalist Thomas Vorreyer points out that had the vote been based only on those aged between 35 and 44 the AfD would have come out top. 26% of people in that age category voted for the far right party, with the CDU/CSU in second place on 24%.
Bei Menschen, die 35 bis 44 Jahre alt sind, kommt die AfD auf 26 Prozent, wäre stärkste Kraft. Also bei jenen, die mitten im Leben stehen, Ausbildung lange fertig, Rente (Welche?) aber noch weit, weit weg. #Bundestagswahl2025 pic.twitter.com/JSDbk7HRHp
— Thomas Vorreyer (@tvorreyer) February 23, 2025
The far-right AfD has won in all five former East German states, Spiegel reports; that’s the state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Brandenburg, Saxony-Anhalt, Saxony and Thuringia.
It has well over 30% of the vote in each state and as much as 38.6% in Thuringia – that’s where the AfD made history in September as the first far-right party to win a state election since the second world war.
Final results
The results are in, confirming the CDU/CSU on 28.5%, the AfD in second place on 20.8% – its best result ever – the SPD slumping by 10 percentage points to 16.4% and the Greens to 11.6%.
The Left has surged to 8.8% and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance has just failed to get in after reaching just 4.972% according to the official results page.
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FDP leader Christian Lindner resigns
As the vote-count nears completion, Christian Lindner, the leader of the liberal FDP, has resigned after it became clear his party would fail to reach the 5% threshold.
In a post on X, he said would retire from active politics:
The parliamentary elections brought defeat for the FDP but hopefully a new start for Germany. That’s what I fought for. Now I’m retiring from active politics. I have only one feeling: gratitude for almost 25 intense, challenging years full of productive work and debate.
Lindner, 46, served as finance minister in Olaf Scholz’s unwieldy three-way coalition government but was often at odds with the Social Democrat chancellor.
Matters came to a head in November when Scholz fired him after a bitter falling out over government spending, paving the way for the collapse of the coalition and early elections.
What the papers say
The German papers are giving their verdicts on the day’s events. Bild, the country’s largest circulation newspaper, declared “Merz does it!” in its headline, adding among other things “SPD so bad as never before!”, “AfD almost doubled”, “The Greens cry, the Left celebrates”.
The Süddeutsche Zeitung has used a quote from the victorious Friedrich Merz as its headline: “The world out there isn’t waiting for us” and reports that the chancellor-in-waiting wants to form a coalition by Easter.
The Handelsblatt splashes on “Election winner Merz”, adding “The Union (CDU/CSU) wins the elections. The AfD achieves a record result. The SPD loses drastically – and the FDP fails to pass the 5% hurdle.”
One of the key things on Friedrich’s Merz’s plate will be dealing with Donald Trump and the effect his administration will have on Nato and the war in Ukraine in particular.
“I never thought I would need to say something like this on television,” Merz said on a post-election panel of party leaders. “But after Donald Trump’s statements last week, it’s clear: this American government doesn’t care for Europe.”
Merz also criticised what he called “interference” from Elon Musk, who has promoted the AfD, “drastic and shameful – similar to what we’ve heard from Moscow in the past”.
And he said that Germany would have to wait to see “whether we will still be able to speak about Nato in its current form” when the alliance meets for its next summit in June.
He added that he had not given up hope that Ukraine would be included in any negotiations with Russia on its future, perhaps with the “intervention of the US Congress” on Kyiv’s behalf against any attempt at exclusion by Trump.
“We need to see whether we don’t need to become more quickly independent in Europe in terms of our defence capabilities,” he added.
On Friday, Merz told public broadcaster ZDF that Germany would need to come to terms with the possibility that Trump might not stick with Nato’s mutual-defence pledge unrestrictedly.
He said this meant that Berlin might need to become less reliant on the US with regard to their nuclear umbrella and advocated talks with Europe’s nuclear powers France and Britain about an expansion of their nuclear protection.
Merz, a transatlanticist, has been more hawkish against Russia than the acting Chancellor Olaf Scholz, suggesting medium-range Taurus missiles might be sent to Kyiv under his reign, something Scholz has strictly rejected.
The Greens’ candidate for chancellor, vice chancellor Robert Habeck, has said that Merz would do well to moderate his tone after a hard-fought campaign. Merz has repeatedly criticised Habeck as a “failed” economy minister and said he will break up Habeck’s joint portfolio of economy and climate action in his cabinet.
“We have seen the centre is weakened overall, and everyone should look at themselves and ask whether they didn’t contribute to that,” said Habeck. “Now he [Merz] must see that he acts like a chancellor.”
While the Greens coalition partner, the SPD, has lost heavily in these elections (down about 10 percentage points) and the FDP looks set to disappear from parliament, the Greens have lost only about 3 percentage points.
In its latest projection the broadcaster ZDF has put the far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) on 5% – just enough to get it into parliament.
That will in turn affect how many seats other parties get and whether Friedrich Merz will have to turn to a third party – realistically the Greens, with whom the CDU and CSU disagree on many subjects – in order to form a coalition.
The liberal FDP, which brought down Olaf Scholz’s coalition last year, is on 4.4% according to ZDF, not enough to get into parliament.
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For more than 150 years, the symbolism of the Siegessäule, or Victory Column, in Berlin’s Tiergarten, has shifted alongside German identity: from emblem of the empire to strategic relocation by the Nazis and, finally, its adoption as an icon of Berlin’s legendary love parade.
On Sunday, as throngs of people gathered in its shadow, the golden statue bore witness to yet another shift – an election that had yielded an emboldened far right in a result that was unprecedented in Germany’s postwar history.
“I’m devastated,” said David, 32. “And I’m scared and sad.”
Preliminary results suggested that although the conservative CDU/CSU bloc had won the largest share of the vote (29%), likely to be the second force in the parliament was the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which garnered about 20% of the vote.
Polls had long predicted this result, said David, who declined to give his surname. But now the question was what exactly it meant for the millions of Germans who were either racialised, like him, or who are migrants.
Read on below:
The British prime minister, Keir Starmer, has also congratulated Friedrich Merz and the CDU/CSU on their victory. In a post on X he wrote:
I look forward to working with the new government to deepen our already strong relationship, enhance our joint security and deliver growth for both our countries.
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Emmanuel Macron has offered his congratulations to Friedrich Merz and his “friendship” to Olaf Scholz, with whom he has had an at times fraught relationship. In a post on X, the French president said:
I just spoke with Friedrich Merz to congratulate him on his victory in the German elections.
I also had an exchange with Olaf Scholz to express my friendship on this evening.
We are more determined than ever to achieve great things together for France and Germany and work towards a strong and sovereign Europe. In this time of uncertainty, we are united to face the major challenges of the world and our continent.
This is Helen Livingstone taking over the blog from my colleague Maya Yang.
Updated
According to the latest update in the German election results, the conservative CDU/CSU alliance, the winner of the night, might be in need not just of the left-wing Social Democrats (SPD) to form a government, but also the Greens, if the far-left BSW grouping ends up entering parliament by getting more than the 5% minimum required.
There are some arithmetical acrobatics going on here which are quite complicated to understand, but the reason is due to the fact that the pro-business FDP (whose decision not to continue in the three-way coalition government of Olaf Scholz prompted early elections in the first place) looks highly unlikely to get into parliament. Latest poll results show the FDP to have secured just 4.4% of the vote. The BSW of Sahra Wagenknecht, a breakaway group from the far-left Die Linke, will leave pollsters in a state of tension until the last of the votes has been counted. In the last poll it was standing at 4.9%. That is just below the amount needed to enter the Bundestag. The nail biting in Berlin continues.
Die Linke, celebrating the most surprising result of the night, by the way, having secured 8.5%, were continuing to party late on Sunday evening, even as supporters of parties such as the FDP and SPD – which received its historically worst result ever) had long since packed up and gone home. Die Linke has not yet used the word schadenfreude (malicious glee) to describe how it feels towards the BSW which almost drove it into non-existence, but it’s not hard to imagine that the word has passed the lips of at least some of the party faithful this evening.
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Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has congratulated the CDU/CSU, writing on X:
“I congratulate the CDU/CSU and @_FriedrichMerz on their victory in the Bundestag elections. A clear voice from the voters, and we see how important this is for Europe.
“We look forward to continuing our joint work with Germany to protect lives, bring real peace closer to Ukraine, and strengthen Europe.
“Europe must be able to defend itself, develop its industries, and achieve the necessary results. Europe needs shared successes, and those success will bring even greater unity to Europe.”
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Although Donald Trump was quick to hail the success of conservatives in the German elections as a sort of personal triumph, Friedrich Merz, who leads the conservative CDU/CSU, told the state broadcaster that his top priority as the likely next chancellor would be to “strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that we can be independent of the United States of America”.
“I would’ve never thought I would need to say something like this on television,” Merz said on a post-election panel of party leaders. “But after Donald Trump’s statements last week, it’s clear: this American government doesn’t care for Europe.”
Merz also criticized what he called “interference” from Elon Musk, who had promoted the AfD, “drastic and shameful – similar to what we’ve heard from Moscow in the past”.
Updated
In a statement to the Guardian, Nicolai Von Ondarza, associate fellow, Europe Programme at Chatham House, said that the German elections had seen very high turnout by international standards at 83-84% – and the highest since reunification.
“The age distribution is interesting with far more older people voting in Germany … The AfD gained in the youth vote, but the big winner there was Die Linke.
“AfD gained the most from mobilising non-voters as well as the centre-right. At the end, the AfD losses to the also populist BSW were minimal. On the other side of the spectrum, Die Linke won more voters from the centre-left and non-voters than it lost to BSW.
“One of the results showing how unhappy Germans were with what was on offer – the most popular chancellor candidate remained, until the end – one who was not running, Boris Pistorius,” Ondarza said.
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And that’s all from me, Jakub Krupa in Berlin, for now as I’m handing the blog over to Maya Yang to lead you through the late evening as we get more results and reactions to the German vote.
Stay with us for all the latest.
What do we know at 10pm German time
The conservative CDU/CSU is on course to win the German federal election and form a new government, with its leader Friedrich Merz expected to lead it in a coalition arrangement that would most likely involve the SPD and potentially the Greens as the third party, if needed.
Speaking as the presumed next chancellor, Merz stressed Europe’s need to be more self-reliant on defence faced with the US under Trump, as he warned the new US administration made it “clear that this government is fairly indifferent to Europe’s fate”. He also repeated his criticism of Elon Musk for his involvement in German politics and support of the far-right AfD. His comments came shortly after congratulations from Trump.
The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party celebrated its highest-ever result in a federal poll, with its co-leader Alice Weidel criticising the CDU/CSU for refusing to work with her party. She predicted an “unstable government which will not last the next four years”, saying the AfD would be waiting in the wings to take over the helm.
The Social Democratic party has been left reeling on the back of a historically low vote share, with outgoing chancellor, Olaf Scholz, admitting it was a “bitter result”.He said he would not be involved in any coalition talks with the CDU/CSU, with other SPD leaders expected to lead.
With the liberal FDP more likely than not to miss out on seats in the next Bundestag, the focus is now on the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance which is on 4.9% and 5% in exit polls. Crossing the 5% threshold would get in seats in the new parliament, and effectively force the CDU/CSU into a three-way coalition with the SPD and the Greens.
Updated
Greens still could be kingmakers in next government – snap analysis
Environment correspondent
For an election in which climate breakdown has long since faded into the background, the Greens are glad to have lost fewer voters than their coalition partners.
Tonight’s polls suggest the young voters who helped it into power four years ago have turned away in large numbers – with the Left and AfD enjoying a surge in support among young people – but overall the Greens have suffered only a small drop in support that has brought them to 12%.
Still, the complex maths of the German electoral system means the Greens could still play a decisive role in forming the next government. Two small parties, the FDP and BSW, are hovering at or just below the 5% hurdle needed to enter parliament – and a likely “grand coalition” between the centre-left and centre-right would fall short of a majority if either of the small parties were to clear the bar.
That’s where the Greens could step in as kingmakers – if the conservatives are willing to work with them. Heavyweights of the CDU/CSU have stressed their reluctance to do so at several points tonight, though perhaps their biggest critic, CSU leader Markus Söder, declined to categorically rule out a partnership. “If it’s at all possible, we’ll stick to our position.”
Updated
Worth noting the stark contrast there between Merz’s words about the US – he also pointedly criticised Elon Musk for interfering in the German election by actively supporting the AfD – and Trump’s statement earlier.
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CDU/CSU's Merz hints at Europe's need to be more self-reliant on defence faced with US under Trump
Berlin correspondent
Speaking on the same programme, Merz said Trump had made it “clear that this government is fairly indifferent to Europe’s fate” and that Germany would have to wait to see “whether we will still be able to speak about Nato in its current form” when the alliance meets for its next summit in June.
He added that he had not given up hope that Ukraine would be included in any negotiations with Russia on its future, perhaps with the “intervention of the US Congress” on Kyiv’s behalf against any attempt at exclusion by Trump.
“We need to see whether we don’t need to become more quickly independent in Europe in terms of our defence capabilities,” he added.
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Lindner says he will resign if FDP is out of parliament
Berlin correspondent
Christian Lindner, head of the pro business FDP, which triggered the snap elections after meticulously planning the demise of the coalition, has just announced during the so-called elephant round of all the party leaders on television that if his party, as looks the case right now, fails to get over the 5% hurdle needed to get into parliament, he will resign.
Lindner, 46, who was finance minister in the fractious Scholz government, is the FDP’s longest-serving leader, having taken on the job in 2017. His wife is expecting their first child this spring.
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One to watch: Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance
While the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is still below 5% on the ARD poll we are leading with, it is now above the threshold in the other poll, by ZDF.
If confirmed, that would substantially complicate the government forming process, potentially forcing CDU/CSU into a three-way coalition with the SPD and the Greens.
A CDU/CSU-SPD coalition would have 309 seats, seven short of the 316 required, so they would need the “Kenya” coalition to govern (393).
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First result of the night
From the visuals team
The first constituency results have just been published by the Federal Returning Officer.
They give the CSU (the CDU’s Bavarian sister party) a hefty lead with 38% of “second” (party-list) votes in the northern Bavarian constituency of Hof. AfD came second with 24.3%, and SPD third with 13.5%.
Bavaria is CDU/CSU heartland so probably more interesting is the change figures – the SPD are down nearly 11 percentage points against 2021, and the AfD are up 12.6.
You can follow all results as they come in here:
'Elephant round' on TV as leaders give their reactions
Berlin correspondent
A regular date on the evening after the exit polls is the so-called Berliner Runde – sometimes referred to as the ‘elephant round’ in which the main candidates of all the parties chew over the results of the election on TV, some licking their wounds, others basking in the glow of success.
The lively round has just kicked off, with Scholz admitting that the result for the SPD is “very bitter” but he’ll stay in the role of chancellor until another government is in place.
Merz has just spoken of his satisfaction that the result is “very clear and distinct”, and said he will strive to “form a government which represents all voters”. He said he had made no secret of the fact that he wanted a single coalition partner – to ease the role of governing – (currently looking most likely to be the SPD) but that a three-way coalition – so called Kenya with the Greens – was also “conceivable”. He said having explicitly ruled out a coalition with the AfD, he did not in any way feel obliged to reconsider his position even though AfD voters had wanted such an alliance.
Weidel, looking triumphant, said she could not view this declaration of exclusion as a defeat, as her party had earned its strongest result, doubling its success on three years ago, the party having only formed 12 years ago. She said the AfD had “arrived”, having now established itself as a ‘Volkspartei’ or big-tent party.
She repeated her invitation made to the CDU/CSU earlier in the evening – her party’s hand was “outstretched” to form a coalition, and said that it planned to support any “sensible proposals” made by the CDU, calling the party’s victory ‘pyrrhic’, and saying the CDU, if it entered a coalition with the SPD, would have to explain to its voters “how they want to implement the policies of the left”. This would backfire, she inferred.
The CDU had copied the AfD’s campaign manifesto, she said again, “but won’t be able to implement it with the left.”
Weidel predicted an “unstable government which will not last the next four years”, saying the AfD would be waiting in the wings to take over the helm.
Updated
So US president Donald Trump has just congratulated the CDU/CSU for its projected “very big” win, claiming in an ALL-CAPS post on Truth Social that “the people of Germany got tired of the no common sense agenda, especially on energy and immigration”.
“This is a great day for Germany and for the United States of America under the leadership of a gentleman named Donald J. Trump,” he said, referring to himself in third person.
“Congratulations to all – many more victories to follow.”
Remember that Trump has German roots, which probably explains the interest.
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Notable success of far-left Die Linke - snap analysis
Berlin correspondent
Undoubtedly one of the most interesting developments of the night is the success of the far-left Die Linke which it had been thought would not make it into parliament, having been squeezed almost out of existence by the dramatic breakaway of many of its MPs under the lure of Sahra Wagenknecht who formed the BSW.
But Die Linke has secured 8.5% and, so far, the BSW looks like it will fail to get into parliament.
Heidi Reichinnek, Die Linke’s charismatic leader, is being credited with having boosted the party’s fortunes. In particular it had much success amongst first time voters, having tripled its social media budget, after taking a leaf out of the AfD’s book, which has done very well in this voter segment in recent elections.
Speaking to the party faithful at Die Linke’s headquarters earlier this evening, Reichinnek said she was “unbelievably grateful” to voters, saying the result proved “that our focus on social topics was particularly successful”.
She said the party would continue in the same vein, fighting on issues such as affordable rents or decreasing VAT on food, and would try to be “louder and clearer than the others” on these topics.
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What this means for Ukraine - expert view
Speaking about Ukraine, I have asked Dr Raphael Bossong of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs what the election could mean for Germany’s support for Ukraine.
Here is what he said:
If there is one area where there is a reasonably large consensus [in German politics] that is to support Ukraine.
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What we know at 8pm German time
The conservative CDU/CSU is on course to win the German federal election and form a new government, with its leader Friedrich Merz insisting there is no time to waste as he signalled his intent to quickly find a coalition arrangement that would give him a stable majority.
The far-right Alternative für Deutschland party celebrated its highest-ever result in a federal poll, with its co-leader Alice Weidel saying she was ready to enter into talks about joining the government, despite previous declarations from CDU/CSU that they would not entertain such a scenario.
The Social Democratic party has been left reeling on the back of a historically low vote share, with outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz admitting it was a “bitter result”.
But the shape of the future government will likely be influenced by what happens to the smaller parties, with both the FDP and the BSW still too close to the 5% threshold to call it whether they will sit in the next Bundestag. Their presence – or not – would dramatically alter the parliamentary arithmetic, potentially forcing the CDU/CSU into a three-way coalition.
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What's in Merz's in-tray as incoming chancellor?
Berlin correspondent
Friedrich Merz, a former banker who has never been a government minister, appears almost certain to be the next chancellor of Germany as his conservative CDU/CSU alliance are projected to win the most votes in Sunday’s crucial federal election.
What in his in-tray?
Relations with the US under Donald Trump
Fixing the economy
Ukraine
Responding to the rapid rise of the far right
Dealing with the shadow of Angela Merkel
Read more about each of these five key points here:
Updated
Not everyone is keen on working with the Greens, though.
The CSU leader, Markus Söder, suggested to the party faithful that CDU/CSU can form a government without the Greens, and “they should go into opposition” instead.
Let’s see if his view evolves as the night goes on.
Updated
German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock has called for a strong government in response to the rapid rise of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland, hinting at her Green party’s availability to enter into any coalition talks with the CDU/CSU.
The Greens are currently forecast to come fourth at 12.7%. slightly below their 2021 result.
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Reaction from AfD's Alice Weidel
Berlin correspondent
Speaking in the last hour to broadcaster ARD, a positively glowing Alice Weidel, co-leader of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) called the result “historic” for her party, having doubled the number of votes from 2021.
Struggling against the celebrations going on around her at the party headquarters in Berlin, Weidel said her party remained open to coalition talks with other parties, and said excluding the AfD was the equivalent to “voter fraud”.
She said: “Our hand is outstretched,” and her party wanted to “put into force the will of the people”.
No political change in Germany was possible without the AfD, she said.
She argued that a coalition between the conservative CDU/CSU, the SPD and the Greens – mathematically the most likely right now – would simply be a repetition of the “same old” politics.
In her reaction to the vote, she accused the CDU of having “lifted” the programme of the AfD “almost 100%”, but said with its 140 seats in parliament – up from 85 in the last one – the AfD was ready to put its power to use, supporting “sensible proposals” by the CDU/CSU such as reducing bureaucracy and cutting taxes.
She made no explicit reference to migration policy, even after the AfD recently gave its parliamentary support to a proposal to control migration at the borders, put forward by the CDU.
Weidel said her parliamentary group would assemble on Tuesday to discuss its future role, and said it was ready to “very relaxedly” engage in politics following its stunning result, and would see it as its aim to “hunt the other parties”, to ensure they implemented “sensible policies for our country”.
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Projected turnout: 83.5%
ARD projects the turnout at 83.5%, the highest since the reunification in 1990.
Checks out with voters told us about their perception of this race as potentially the most important vote in their lives.
If you want to get an idea about the scale of issues and problems that Merz is likely to face as the next German chancellor, let’s just say that the German magazine Zeit just posted its analysis saying that “he faces a mountain of problems of mythical proportions.”
No pressure, Friedrich.
Defence minister Boris Pistorius, of SPD, who some believe could be the next leader of the party if Scholz goes, has been giving his reaction to the result in the last few minutes.
He said that the party had to acknowledge it was a “devastating, catastrophic result,” and raised concerns about the high level of support for the far-right AfD as he said that democratic forces will have to work together to counter that rise.
He said it was up to Merz to come up with an offer to form a coalition, and the SPD’s leadership will have to discuss its position for these talks.
Conservatives poised to win German election but far-right AfD doubles support - snap analysis
Berlin correspondent
The conservative opposition CDU/CSU has won the most votes in Germany’s general election, exit polls indicated, but a surge by the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party is likely to complicate the formation of a government ready to help spearhead a European response to new global threats.
The CDU/CSU candidate, Friedrich Merz, appeared best placed to be tasked with forming a ruling coalition on Sunday night after clinching roughly 29% of the vote amid high turnout, according to exit polls released on public television networks.
The AfD, riding popular anger about immigration, violent crime and high energy costs, garnered about 20% of the vote – coming in second place and nearly doubling its result at the last election in 2021.
The AfD is set to become the biggest opposition party even while it is under surveillance by security authorities as a suspected extremist force. It has grown steadily more radical since its launch by Eurosceptic professors 12 years ago.
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Vote transfers to/from CDU - snap analysis
Berlin correspondent
According to initial analysis, the CDU gained 1.8 million voters from the SPD, 1.3 million from the FDP, as well as securing the votes 1.5 million people who had previously never voted.
In turn, the CDU lost 830,000 voters to the AfD.
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Variations in results by age group
There are also some interesting variations in how different age groups voted, according to the ARD projection:
Die Linke won the vote among the youngest voters 18-24 with 25% of the vote, ahead of AfD at 20% and CDU/CSU at 13%.
But in the 25-34 age bracket, it’s the far-right AfD that came top at 22%, ahead of CDU/CSU at 18%, and the Greens and Die Linke at 16% each.
Among 35-44, the AfD and the CDU/CSU were tied at 25%, followed by the Greens at 15%.
But the CDU/CSU has won big in the older age groups: winning both 45-59 and 60-69 with 33% of the vote, well ahead of the AfD and the SPD respectively (both at 21%).
The SPD also performed better with older votes, coming second in two of the oldest brackets, 60-69 and 70-79.
Gender divide in voting results
Looking at the ARD projections, you can see some notable differences in how men and women voted in the German election: with women showing more support for left-leaning parties.
Among men, CDU/CSU came first at 30%, AfD second at 23%, and SPD third at 15%, closely followed by Greens at 12% and Die Linke at 7%.
But among women, CDU/CSU got only 27%, and SPD was tied up with the AFD in second, both at 17%. Greens came fourth at 14%, with Die Linke at very high 10% in fifth.
Updated
One to watch: smaller parties
I earlier talked about how the number of parties in the next Bundestag could turn to be critical for who gets to form the next government.
If both the FDP and the BSW fail to get into the Bundestag, the Union will be able to rule in a two-party coalition with the SPD, with projected 327 votes (316 needed for majority.)
But if both smaller parties get in, they would need to draft the Greens in to secure the majority. They would have just 293 votes with the SPD, but 379 in a three-way coalition, according to ARD figures.
'We must never accept' far right, Scholz says as he concedes defeat
SPD’s outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz is now responding to the vote.
He says it is a “bitter result,” as he accepts the scale of the defeat. He thanks party members for their engagement in the campaign.
He congratulates CDU/CSU and Merz in particular, acknowledging their task to form the next government.
He also turns against the far-right AfD, as he says that SPD has a long history of fighting for democracy, and says that the far right is something “we must never accept.”
Updated
CDU/CSU's Merz claims victory, says no time to waste in forming government
Merz hails “a historic election evening,” as he claims the victory in this election.
He says he knows the responsibility and the scale of the task ahead, and acknowledges at times “very tough” election campaign, touching on issues of economic policy, migration, foreign and security policy.
But he says he is confident of being able “to create a government capable of acting in Germany’s interest” soon, as he tells party faithful that “the world out there is not waiting for us and for lengthy negotiations.”
CDU/CSU leader and most likely next German chancellor Friedrich Merz is now on stage.
We will bring you his words as soon as possible.
Updated
'Bitter evening,' SPD general secretary says
SPD general secretary Matthias Miersch has been speaking to the media in the last few minutes.
He describes the projected result, the party’s worst in a federal election, as a “historic defeat,” admitting it is “a very bitter evening.”
‘Merz to be next chancellor’ – first reactions
“The Union has won the election, the new chancellor will be called Friedrich Merz,” said the general secretary of the Christian Democratic Union, Carsten Linnemann, said after exit polls put the party firmly in first place after today’s election, just short of its target of 30%.
The co-leader of the Alternative für Deutschland, Alice Weidel, said the party had become “the second strongest force” and was now “firmly anchored” in the German mainstream.
She suggested she would be open to discussing a role in the next government. “We extend our hand to offer cooperation with the CDU. Otherwise change won’t be possible in Germany,” she said.
During the campaign, the Conservative parties repeatedly dismissed any prospect of a coalition with the far right.
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What we know so far
The conservative CDU/CSU party is expected to be the largest party in the next German parliament, at about 29% of the vote, with Friedrich Merz in pole position to be Germany’s next chancellor.
The far-right Alternative für Deutschland is expected to come second, with the record-high 20% of the vote, almost doubling its share in 2021 (10.4%).
The ruling Social Democratic party is expected to come third at about 16%, its worst result in a federal election.
Both the liberal FDP and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance are very close to the 5% electoral threshold.
Updated
Projected result for ZDF
CDU/CSU 28.5%
AfD 20%
SPD 16.5%
Greens 12%
The Left 9%
BSW 5%
FDP 5%
(via ZDF)
Updated
Projected result for ARD1
CDU/CSU 29%
AfD 19.5%
SPD 16%
Greens 13.5%
The Left 8.5%
FDP 4.9%
BSW 4.7%
(via ARD1)
Updated
CDU/CSU projected winner of 2025 German election
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What to look out for in exit polls?
Can the CDU/CSU go above 30% to give it a chance of governing in a two-party coalition?
Is the AfD’s result in line with pre-election polls, at around 20-21%, or higher?
How many parties will be in the next parliament? The more are in, the more difficult any coalition talks will be.
Five minutes to go.
Updated
At party headquarters – in pictures
Eight minutes to go.
Let’s take a quick look at what’s going on in party HQs.
What coalition is likely to emerge from the vote? - expert says
Let’s go back to Dr Raphael Bossong of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs for his taken on his comment on what to expect after the vote.
You will not be surprised to hear that he essentially says:
It’s more complicated than ever.
SPD, CDU leaders voting - in pictures
Greens fighting to hold on to power
Environment correspondent
Germany’s Greens are fighting to hold on to power after four years in a coalition government where they have been pilloried by other parties, and during which their core issue of climate action has slipped down the political agenda.
Though the party is still far from being considered a Volkspartei – a main party whose voters span demographic groups and issues – the Greens have sought to boost their mainstream appeal with talk of beefing up security and bringing down rents and bills.
Unexpected revival of Die Linke
Berlin correspondent
As the world’s richest person meddles at will on behalf of the far right in the German election campaign, a leftist party calling for taxing billionaires out of existence has risen from the ashes in the race’s final stretch.
The far-left Linke, successor to the East German communists who built the Berlin Wall and just months ago on life support after an internal schism, has had a surprise resurgence before the 23 February poll.
As hard right populists succeed across much of Europe and incumbents such as Germany’s Social Democrat (SPD) chancellor, Olaf Scholz, fail to meet the moment, many leftist voters in particular have said they feel unsure where to turn, creating an opening for the once down-and-out Linke.
30 minutes alert.
We should get a early idea of what the results may look like at the top of the hour, when the polls close and we expect to see an exit poll.
Feeling nervous yet?
Sparkling wine is getting served at the AfD HQs…
What our German readers think about the vote?
Reporter
Hundreds of German readers shared with the Guardian how they felt about the chaotic political and economic situation in Europe’s largest economy.
While most people agreed Germany’s malaise was primarily to be blamed on a lack of sorely needed investment in the country’s ailing transport, energy, housing, education and health infrastructure, opinions on how such investments should be financed diverged enormously.
While scores of people expressed concern about increasingly rightwing rhetoric regarding immigration in German politics, even from Scholz himself, others welcomed this shift, with a number of people pointing to recent terrorist attacks such as the mass stabbing by a Syrian asylum seeker in the western city of Solingen last summer.
Elon Musk's support for the AfD
Elon Musk, billionaire Tesla and SpaceX CEO, and now a senior Trump administration figure, has played a part in this campaign after repeatedly intervening in support of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland – including today.
In December, he took a stunning new public step in his support for the far-right German political party Alternative for Germany (AfD), publishing a supportive guest opinion piece for the country’s Welt am Sonntag newspaper that has prompted the commentary editor to resign in protest.
He later hosted a virtual encounter with AfD leader Alice Weidel amid growing criticism over the US billionaire’s vocal support of far-right, anti-establishment parties across Europe, and accusations he is meddling in the campaign for Germany’s election.
The almost 75-minute conversation covered everything from energy policy and education to their joint wish to slash German bureaucracy and prevent illegal immigration. Douglas Adams, Schopenhauer, the meaning of life, whether Adolf Hitler was a socialist or a far-right extremist and how to solve the Israel-Palestine conflict were also mulled over at length.
However, his more open calls for German voters to back the AfD, which federal authorities classify as a suspected extremist party, have sparked outrage and accusations of troubling interference in Europe’s top economy.
“It is indeed the case that Elon Musk is trying to influence the federal election,” said the government spokesperson Christiane Hoffmann after Musk’s X posts.
Musk has often weighed in on German politics, even calling the chancellor, Olaf Scholz, a “fool” on his social media platform X.
Last month Tesla and SpaceX boss also made supportive speech at a campaign event for the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party in Halle, eastern Germany.
Speaking just days before the 80th anniversary of the liberation of the German Nazi concentration camp in Auschwitz, he told attendees that Germany was too focused on past guilt and said the AfD was the best hope for the country.
Let’s see if his support helps the party’s result today.
Richard Partington and Phillip Inman
Economics correspondent and economics editor
Germany is used to running its economy with the brake on. Ever since the 2008 financial crisis Berlin has sought to burnish a reputation as the world capital of fiscal discipline, with a near-pious aversion to debt and pride in strong government finances.
With Germany in effective recession after the economy shrank for two consecutive years, in 2023 and 2024 – and for only the third time since the 1950s – rebooting growth and raising living standards is a top issue on the ballot.
After this weekend’s elections it might not be long before the constitutional handbrake is relaxed to help reboot Europe’s largest economy with debt-funded firepower, and to find room for higher defence spending.
Community affairs correspondent
Migration has loomed large in the lead-up to the election, cast repeatedly as a problem to be solved; from Olaf Scholz’s promise to “deport people more often and faster” to the proposals by the conservative opposition leader, Friedrich Merz, to turn away asylum seekers at Germany’s borders and revoke the citizenship of dual nationals who commit a crime.
Both have seemingly sought to keep pace with the AfD, who have peddled promises of remigration and repeatedly tied migration to crime, falsely tarring the millions of Germans who hail from around the world and live peacefully in and contribute to the country.
Community affairs correspondent
In the days before an election in which the far right is expected to catapult into second place in Germany’s parliament, the simultaneous rallies in 50 municipalities were billed as a show of strength by an LGBTQ+ community as people braced for what might lie ahead.
They poured on to streets across Germany by the thousands, waving rainbow flags and signs that read “Choose Love”.
Sunday’s election, however, could leave the LGBTQ+ community grappling with an intensified challenge as polls suggest support for the AfD is set to double, yielding a result that would be unprecedented in the country’s postwar history.
Berlin correspondent
Or here is a tl;dr on Alice Weidel in a video form, from Deborah Cole:
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Who is AfD's leader Alice Weidel?
Berlin correspondent
Alternative für Deutschland’s leader Alice Weidel is a politician of contradictions: a German nationalist who lives in Switzerland; a former investment banker who rails against elites; and a lesbian with two adopted sons, leading a party that defines a family as “father, mother and children”.
Yet as our Berlin correspondent, Kate Connolly, explains in this podcast, despite Weidel’s background – or perhaps because of it – she has risen to the top of Germany’s far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), picked to be its candidate for chancellor in federal elections.
And though Weidel is unlikely to become chancellor after the elections – given the refusal of other parties to form a coalition with the AfD – she might still have the influence to push German politics further to the right, and has eyes on gaining power next time around, in five years’ time.
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All eyes on far-right AfD
Berlin correspondent
In the tumultuous German election campaign, which has been rocked by jaw-dropping US interference, a spate of violent attacks and rare fears for the country’s political stability, all eyes have been locked on the party most likely to finish second.
When the dust settles after Sunday’s vote and conservative opposition leader Friedrich Merz is – barring further surprises – elected chancellor, the 2025 race will be remembered as the moment the far-right Alternative für Deutschland, consistently polling in second place, went from sideshow to centre stage.
What began as a professors’ party opposing eurozone bailout packages has morphed in just 12 years into an ever more radical force, feeding on anti-migrant sentiment and incorporating neo-Nazis into its ranks.
Germany built its postwar identity – with the fundamental help of the Americans – around preventing parties like the AfD from gaining power.
Which Merz would turn up as chancellor? - expert says
So let’s go back to Dr Raphael Bossong of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs for a second.
I asked him what we should expect from Merz as a potential chancellor, and which side of him is likely to dominate: the one declaring strong support for the EU, or the one pushing for radical overhaul of migration policy, even at risk of falling foul of the bloc’s rules?
He has made various statements … that he wants to take a new leadership role in Europe [for Germany].
But that depends on many factors.
Here is his analysis:
Berlin correspondent
WHO IS THE LIKELY NEXT GERMAN CHANCELLOR?
If polls are to be believed, CDU leader Friedrich Merz is most likely to be the next chancellor of Germany.
Once sidelined by Merkel, Merz loves private planes, hates tax bureaucracy, and backs Ukraine.
He was arguably best known for his suggestion in the early 2000s that German tax rules be drastically reduced so that they fit on the back of a beer coaster. The very same coaster on which he scribbled the policy is now preserved in the archives of Germany’s House of History in Bonn.
But there is much more to him.
For example, in a spectacular gambit earlier this year, Merz attempted to wrest back control of the highly charged migration debate by passing a non-binding resolution on border security in parliament with votes from the far right – violating an unwritten rule of the post-Nazi period and prompting mass protests.
So, who is Friedrich Merz?
What is the voting system?
Europe correspondent
Germany has a hybrid election system in which voters cast one ballot for a candidate representing a constituency, and a second for a particular party’s list of candidates in a federal state. Only parties that win 5% of the second vote can enter parliament.
Since the 2021 election produced a bloated Bundestag of 735 seats, one of the largest parliaments in the world, a 2023 law – revised last year after a ruling by the country’s top court – has come into effect limiting the size of the new assembly to 630 seats.
The new system also aims to prioritise proportional representation, so seats will be allocated based on second votes received nationwide. If a party wins proportionally more constituency seats than its share of the national vote, some will be left vacant.
The court rejected a proposed change that it said would have disadvantaged smaller parties, so those that win at least three constituency seats will still be entitled to parliamentary seats according to their national vote even if it falls below 5%.
The combination of the 5% threshold, the three-seat exception, and an unusually fragmented and competitive party landscape, with many smaller parties jostling for position, means the exact makeup of the new Bundestag is particularly uncertain.
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Today in Focus
Our Today in Focus presenter and former Berlin correspondent Helen Pidd took a road trip through Germany to find out why, and finds a country increasingly unsure of itself.
She spoke to a voter in Magdeburg, the scene of a horrific attack on a Christmas market in December, now afraid of going to public events; a newly unemployed baker in Wolfsburg toying with the idea of voting for the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD); and across the country, people fearful of what the rise of the AfD means for minorities.
Here is her report in our Today in Focus podcast:
Trump’s election in November last year has – as promised – sent shockwaves round the world. But today’s German election could be almost as momentous.
Germany sits at the centre of Europe, at the centre of its trade networks, and at the centre of its politics. In part, this is because of its sheer size, but also because it has for decades been economically successful and politically stable.
Alex Clark and Seán Clarke explain why today’s vote matters so much with the help of data and visuals.
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What’s at stake in this election? – expert says
Earlier this weekend, I also spoke with Dr Raphael Bossong of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs for this blog to get his take on the election and ask him to guide us through the vote.
You will hear from him more throughout the day, but I started by asking him why Europe should take note of the vote.
Well, it’s a decisive election. I mean, they always say that, but definitely this one is really important for Germany and for Europe at the same time.
The tasks for the next government are bigger than ever.
Watch what he had to say:
High turnout reported by 2pm
Voter turnout at the ballot box by 2pm was at 52%, up from 36.5% at the same time in 2021 (+15.5pp, but take note that the 2021 election took place during the Covid-19 pandemic, so some voters opted for postal vote instead), German federal electoral authorities have just confirmed.
Looking at the state-by-state breakdown from earlier in the day, reported by Welt, it seems like there was a particularly high turnout in the state of Thuringia (44.5% at midday, up from 24.6% in 2021), which is an AfD stronghold and where the far-right party won the state elections in September last year.
Berlin also reported a higher turnout at noon with 33%, up from 25.4% in 2021.
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'Exciting and a bit scary': German voters react ahead of election – video
Opinion is divided as Germany faces what some describe as the “most important election in their lifetime”. The country is expected to shift to the right as Friedrich Merz is in pole position to become Germany’s next chancellor, while far-right party AfD could become the second most powerful party.
So earlier today I asked voters at a polling station in central Berlin what they expected from the election and what they wanted the next chancellor to focus on.
Berlin correspondent
In the run-up to today’s vote, the Guardian’s Kate Connolly travelled more than 850 miles on trains across Germany to hear what its citizens have to say about the state of their nation.
In conversations with more than 50 people across five cities and over six days, we heard their hopes, fears and aspirations. Some spoke of increasing polarisation, of worries that a country that has spent decades undoing the evils of nazism could be heading back to the populist far right. Others complained about bureaucracy, energy costs – and, yes, about the trains.
These, from a journey that took in Berlin, Magdeburg, Bremerhaven, Gelsenkirchen and Dresden, are their voices.
What do the polls say?
Europe correspondent
There seems little doubt that, barring any major surprises, the conservative Merz will be Germany’s next chancellor. The CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), have been consistently and comfortably ahead in the polls on about 30%, with the Alternative für Deutschland second on 20-21%.
There is no apparent route to power for the far-right AfD since all other parties have ruled out working with a party they consider undemocratic.
According to the Guardian’s poll tracker, the SPD are third on about 15% and the Greens fourth on 13%. The leftwing Die Linke are predicted to clear the 5% hurdle and expected to secure around 7-8% but it looks far from certain that the “conservative-left” Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) or liberal FDP will do the same.
Depending on whether that trio (plus the local associations of Free Voters (FW), who could do well in Bavaria) score 5% or more, or qualify via the three-seat exception, the next assembly could have four parties or eight, the most in modern history.
That makes the distribution of seats in the new parliament very hard to predict. However, most analysts see the most likely outcome being a CDU-led coalition government including either Scholz’s Social Democrats or the Greens, or maybe both.
in Berlin
In terms of issues that Germans care about, immigration (37%) continues to dominate discussions, topping last month’s ARD-Deutschlandtrend poll by infratest dimap, just ahead the state of the economy (34%). The prospect of an armed conflict and the concern about Germany’s foreign policy was third, at 14%.
The public opinion was focused on immigration after a spate of attacks with perpetrators of migrant background, including in Magdeburg in December (killing five, and injuring more than 200), Aschaffenburg in January (two dead), Munich in February (two dead).
The issue has further polarised the debate after a controversial move by opposition leader Friedrich Merz, who passed a non-binding motion on tightening immigration rules with the support of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland, breaking the so-called firewall against the extreme parties.
On Friday night, just before the election weekend, German police arrested a 19-year-old Syrian man suspected in a stabbing antisemitic attack at Berlin’s Holocaust memorial that left a Spanish tourist seriously injured.
Earlier on Friday, an 18-year-old ethnic Chechen was arrested on suspicion of planning an attack on the Israeli embassy in Berlin, Bild reported.
Climate change (13%), inequality (11%), and education (8%) were the other three big topics.
Who are the key players and what have they promised?
Europe correspondent
The Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CDU/CSU) frontrunners, led by wealthy former asset manager Friedrich Merz, are proposing to cut taxes, tighten welfare eligibility, slash immigration, process asylum claims abroad, and boost aid to Ukraine.
The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has endorsed the concept of “re-migration”, threatening the mass deportation of migrants. It also pledges a return to the deutschmark, military conscription, and sweeping education reforms.
Scholz’s Social Democratic party (SPD) aims to support low-income families by cutting VAT on food and tax for low earners and raising the minimum wage. It also aims to curb immigration and proposes a €100bn infrastructure investment fund, but is more cautious on Ukraine. Scholz has refused to send long-range Taurus missiles to Kyiv, defending the decision as a “prudent” anti-escalation measure.
The Greens have announced plans for a “billionaire tax” to help poorer households through the green transition. They are also in favour of increasing the minimum wage and are pushing for incentives to speed up the switch to renewable energy.
in Berlin
It is very unusual for Germany to hold snap elections. It is only the fourth time in the country’s postwar history; the last time was in 2005.
But the collapse of Scholz’s three-way government late last year meant there was no other obvious way to resolve the political crisis and provide the country with a stable leadership it needs to face the challenges.
Why does the German election matter?
Europe correspondent
The three-way “traffic-light” coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), Free Democrats (FDP) and Greens ruling Germany since 2021 collapsed in November under the weight of its own ideological contradictions and the country’s economic and security challenges.
The outgoing Social Democrat chancellor, Olaf Scholz, fired his liberal finance minister, Christian Lindner, over a bitter months-long budget dispute, then called a confidence vote in parliament deliberately in order to lose it – which he duly did.
Whoever becomes chancellor will have to tackle an economy beset by high energy and labour costs, stifling bureaucracy, crumbling infrastructure and an economy that has shrunk for two consecutive years for the first time in decades.
The slowdown with trade partner China has dealt a blow to German exports, a traditional strength, while the key car industry has been slow to develop attractive electric vehicles (EVs) and now faces the threat of US tariffs under Donald Trump.
Optimists say the vote could give Germany a vital shot at investment, modernisation and renewal. Pessimists say the problems are so structural and expectations so high that the middle-of-the-road coalition that will probably emerge is doomed to disappoint.
Berlin correspondent
German voters go to the polls today but it is a different world from when the campaign began only a few weeks ago.
Nearly 60 million people are choosing a government that will have to grapple with the breakdown of the transatlantic alliance under Donald Trump and new threats to European security just as the country’s vaunted economic model is hitting the skids.
If the polls are correct, the man leading that administration will be conservative opposition chief Friedrich Merz, a corporate lawyer with a decades-long desire to be chancellor despite never serving in government. His in-tray will be staggering.
“The big expectations mirror the big challenges he’ll face from day one of his likely chancellorship,” news weekly Der Spiegel said. “An aggressive Russia, a hostile America and a Europe that is drifting apart: Merz could be tested more strongly […] than any chancellor of the postwar republic.”
That sense of looming turbulence, with the far-right Alternative für Deutschland waiting in the wings, has troubled many voters, drawing hundreds of thousands on to the streets in recent weeks in defence of democracy.
Read the scene-setter here:
Opening: Germany votes
Guten Tag, and good day from Berlin.
Sixty million Germans choose their next government today, which will lead Europe’s largest economy through what will most likely be the most tumultuous era in decades.
Voters have to choose who will be given the task of steering Germany through an existential security crisis in Europe with Ukraine and Russia, while at the same time facing unprecedented structural challenges to the country’s economic model amid a worsening geopolitical outlook abroad, most obviously characterised by a crumbling transatlantic alliance with the new US administration of Donald Trump.
The conservative opposition chief Friedrich Merz is widely expected to score a win and get the job. But other than that, there are more questions than answers. Who will he govern with? How many parties will get into the Bundestag? Will the far-right once again see record rises in their support, and if so, what will this mean for German politics?
The polling stations have been open since 8am local time (7am GMT) and will close at 6pm local time (5pm GMT) when we should get an exit poll and a first indication of what awaits Germany next.
We will bring you all the key updates throughout the day, helping you to understand the context of the vote, summarising the main themes of the campaign, and bringing first-hand reports from on the ground in Berlin.
