The No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (10-0) travel to Lexington, KY., to take on the Kentucky Wildcats (6-4) on Saturday afternoon.
UGA continues to roll after a 45-19 win at Mississippi State, while the Wildcats look to make an upset after a tough 24-21 loss versus Vanderbilt in Week 11.
The game is set to kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS. Georgia is a -22.5 point favorite, per BetMGM. The over/under is set at 49.
Here’s how Kentucky could cover against the Bulldogs:
5
Bounce back game
Vanderbilt secured its first SEC win in three seasons versus Kentucky when it took down the favored Wildcats at home 24-21.
UK will not only have a chance to bounce back versus Georgia, they will have a shot at upsetting the No. 1 team in the nation and SEC East rival.
I expect the Wildcats to leave it all on the field when the Bulldogs come to town.
4
Defense at home
Good defenses typically feed off of their home atmospheres.
Kentucky enters this game ranked third in the SEC in total defense giving up 317 yards per game and sit third in the conference in scoring defense (20 points per game).
The Wildcats are second in the SEC in pass defense allowing 182 yards per game and are fifth in the conference in rushing defense allowing 135 yards per game.
Georgia’s second-ranked SEC offense will be tough for UK to handle, but Kentucky could pose enough problems to keep the Bulldogs on their toes.
3
Tempo
Kentucky’s offense likes to control the tempo of the game by putting together long, time consuming drives behind the legs of punishing running back Chris Rodriguez.
Georgia’s record-breaking defense was able to shut down the senior running back last season allowing just seven yards, but Kentucky was down the majority of the game and had to rely on the passing game.
Rodriguez has 134 carries for 733 yards (5.5 avg.) and six touchdowns in six games this season.
2
Turnover opportunities
First I should note that Georgia does have a better turnover margin than Kentucky, however, the Bulldogs have turned the ball over seven times in their last three games.
The Bulldogs currently have a -2 turnover margin, compared to Kentucky’s -4 margin.
The point is that Kentucky may have opportunities to take advantage of UGA mistakes and if they can capitalize, the Wildcats could make this much closer than the Bulldogs would like.
1
Too many points?
While Georgia did a good job of avoiding the letdown game last week at Mississippi State, they also secured the SEC East, which means the Bulldogs will be in the SEC Championship with a loss this week.
We’ve seen the Bulldogs stumble against lesser opponents this season and failing to cover large point spreads.
Kent State and Missouri both covered the spread versus UGA.
22.5 points is a tall task in the SEC no matter how you swing it.
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