AFP (Georgia) – Elections in Georgia on Saturday will pit pro-Western opposition forces against a ruling party that is increasingly under Russian influence. While polls indicate that opposition parties may be able to form a winning coalition, experts fear that the ruling party may attempt to cling to power.
Georgians vote on Saturday in watershed elections, with a union of pro-Western opposition forces facing off against a ruling party accused of democratic backsliding and shifting towards Russia.
Brussels has warned the 26 October vote will be crucial for the fate of Georgia's fledgling democracy and its long-held aspiration for European Union membership.
Opinion polls indicate opposition parties could get enough votes to form a coalition government to supplant the ruling Georgian Dream party, controlled by powerful billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili.
The current government says it wants to win a supermajority in parliament to allow it to pass a constitutional ban on the pro-Western opposition.
"Georgia's traditionally fractured opposition forces have managed to forge an unprecedented united front against Georgian Dream," said analyst Gela Vasadze at Georgia's Strategic Analysis Centre.
"But if the ruling party attempts to stay in power regardless of the election outcome, then there is the risk of post-electoral turmoil."
In power since 2012, Georgian Dream initially pursued a liberal pro-Western policy agenda. But over the last two years the party has reversed course.
Its campaign has centred on a conspiracy theory about a "global war party" that controls Western institutions and is seeking to drag Georgia into the Russia-Ukraine war.
In a country where the scars of Russia's 2008 invasion remain unhealed, the party has offered voters bogeyman stories about an imminent threat of war, which only Georgian Dream could prevent.
In a recent TV interview, Ivanishvili painted a grotesque image of the West where "orgies are taking place right in the streets".
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'Crucial test'
The party's passage of a controversial "foreign influence law" this spring, targeting civil society, sparked weeks of mass street protests and was criticised as a Kremlin-style measure to silence dissent.
The move prompted Brussels to freeze Georgia's EU accession process, while Washington imposed sanctions on dozens of Georgian officials.
Earlier this month, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell cautioned that Georgian Dream's actions "signal a shift towards authoritarianism".
He called the upcoming polls "a crucial test for democracy in Georgia and its European Union path".
Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze has vowed to lead Georgia towards EU membership, saying ties with the West will normalise once the Ukraine war ends.
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Undecided voters
But the latest polls show that the opposition is poised to garner enough votes to form a coalition government.
The grouping includes Georgia's main opposition force, jailed ex-president Mikheil Saakashvili's United National Movement (UNM) and Akhali, a recently formed party headed by former UNM leaders.
Along with several smaller parties, they have signed up to a pro-European policy platform outlining far-reaching electoral, judicial and law enforcement reforms.
They have agreed to form an interim multi-party government to advance the reforms – if they command enough seats in parliament – before calling fresh elections.
The parties argue that the current electoral environment is not conducive to democratic elections, and that a fresh ballot held in a year's time – after necessary reforms have been implemented – would truly reflect the will of the voters.
Nestled between the Caucasus Mountains and the Black Sea, Georgia was once considered a rare example of a democracy among ex-Soviet nations.
But elections in the country of some four million regularly spark mass protests.
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A poll conducted by US pollster Edison Research shortly before the elections showed 34 percent of decided voters would cast their ballots for Georgian Dream, while the four opposition alliances combined are set to garner 53 percent of the vote.
No other party is expected to clear the five-percent electoral threshold needed to secure seats in the 150-member legislature.
But the outcome of the vote is far from a foregone conclusion, as more than a quarter of respondents told the pollster they were either undecided or refused to name their preferred political force.
Voting will begin at 0400 GMT and end at 1600 GMT, with exit polls set to be released on closing.
The elections, held under a proportional party list system, will be monitored by international observers from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
