Brexit represents a massive rupture of our political economy on the scale of the Corn Laws and Irish Home Rule. This happens in politics. Old orders collapse. New ones emerge. Beveridge, Butler, Churchill and Attlee imagined a post-Second World War “New Deal” welfare state and nationalisation which shaped the subsequent 50 years. In the Seventies, a small group of economists set out a bold vision of an enterprise economy which Margaret Thatcher made the new normal in the Eighties. So who will shape the new order of our times? With both main parties split by Brexit, a rising tide of anger fuelling extremism on both Left and Right, we look worryingly set for a decade of division and decline.
Unless we pull the Tory plane out of its tailspin, I fear we are heading for a Corbyn government. The election of the first Marxist leader of any major advanced economy — already promising hard-Left attacks on business and wealth creators — would trigger the same flight of capital and talent, slow growth and higher interest rates (“stagflation”) that we saw in the Seventies.
Meanwhile, the party I left a business career to join sleepwalks on, alienating both wings of Conservatism: the traditional, patriotic, blue-collar voter is going to the Brexit Party while the metropolitan vote heads to the Lib Dems. Are we witnessing the end of the Conservative Party? The usual caveat is to say such realignments take decades but we live in an era of acceleration. The Brexit Party, formed just weeks ago, came within a few hundred votes of taking Peterborough. With modern voters, no party has a divine right to exist.
So is there a way out? I still believe that with the right leadership we can turn this crisis into a moment of bold renewal. That’s why this week I launched Britain Beyond Brexit: a New Conservatism for a New Generation, with fresh thinking from 40 new-generation MPs tackling the big issues that will shape the future — the rise of China, climate change, global development, cyber security, jihadi extremism. We will also look at artificial intelligence and digitalisation, the modernisation of public services, and new approaches to mental health, social care, addiction and crime.
Brexit needs to be recast as a moment of inspiring national renewal and reform. Unless Boris Johnson runs as “2010 Boris”: the One Nation London Mayor, Michael Gove will be the leading Brexiteer, with an authentic passion for Brexit as a moment of reform. But if we are to reinspire a new generation, Matt Hancock, Sajid Javid and Rory Stewart have captured that spirit.
In London Tech Week, we need to set out a commitment to an enterprise economy that works for a new generation. To signal support for that, I’m voting for Matt Hancock today. But whoever wins this Tory X Factor, the serious work of reuniting a divided nation starts in six weeks’ time, and will need a new team with a bold and inspiring vision.
George Freeman is the Conservative MP for Mid-Norfolk
