Millions of voters will go the polls on July 4 to elect the new Government. The Standard looks at key battleground seats. Here we turn the spotlight on:
Candidates for main parties (in alphabetical order):
Paul Ellison – Conservative
George Galloway – Workers Party
Michael Howard – Reform UK
Andy Kelly – Liberal Democrat
Martyn Savin – Green
Paul Waugh – Labour
Summary:
George Galloway won this seat in February 2024 after an extraordinary by-election campaign in which the Labour party withdrew support from its official candidate Azhar Ali. Mr Ali had been recorded at a meeting spreading conspiracy theories about the October 7th attacks in Israel.
Now Labour wants to get this seat back from Mr Galloway and his Workers Party insurgency.
Along with the implosion of Labour’s campaign, Mr Galloway was helped in the by-election by local disaffection with main parties’ position on the conflict in Gaza. Mr Galloway made this clear after the result was announced, beginning his victory speech: “Keir Starmer, this is for Gaza.”
As Mr Galloway kept reminding us, he won more votes in the by-election than the Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat and Reform candidates combined. Second place went to a largely unknown independent who is not standing at the general election. Now all parties will attempt to recoup their positions, hoping that a higher turnout at the general election will boost them and knock Mr Galloway off his perch.
Incomes and house prices here tend to be below the national average. The seat voted Leave in the 2016 EU referendum.
Area: Balderstone & Kirkholt, Central Rochdale, Healey, Kingsway, Littleborough Lakeside, Milkstone & Deeplish, Milnrow & Newhey, Smallbridge & Firgrove and Wardle & West Littleborough.
I’m not sure if I’m in this constituency: Here’s how you can check
Boundary changes impact (Thrasher and Rallings analysis): The constituency’s boundaries have contracted slightly since 2019. According to analysis by Thrasher and Rallings if the new boundaries were in place at the last election, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats would have seen a small boost at the expense of Labour.
YouGov MRP poll prediction: Labour hold (won by Labour at last general election)
Evening Standard view: Mr Galloway won this seat with a combination of intensive local campaigning, lower turnout and a massive stroke of good luck with Labour’s campaign imploding. He will probably lack all three this time around, with a competent Labour candidate and his attention divided between Rochdale and the rest of the country where his Workers Party is standing candidates. Turnout is also usually higher at general elections. While Labour is widely expected to retake Rochdale, their performance here will be an important test. How much has the leadership’s position on Gaza permanently damaged relations with previously loyal Muslim voters?
