A quarter of London voters who backed Conservative candidate Susan Hall for Mayor are set to desert her party for Reform UK in this week’s election, with the Tories at risk of being “all but wiped out” in the capital.
Polling by Savanta found that both Reform and the Liberal Democrats are set to benefit from the Tory troubles but Labour overall commands a 30-point lead in Londoners’ voting intention: 49 per cent to 19 per cent for the Conservatives.
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK stood at 11 per cent in London, the Liberal Democrats were on 10 per cent and the Greens on 6 per cent.
Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta, commented: “Our research suggests that the Conservatives could be all but wiped out from London this week, if our results are replicated on election day.
“Their party is deeply unpopular in the capital, leaking votes to Reform UK and facing threats from both Labour and the Liberal Democrats,” he said.
“Labour is seen by Londoners as most trusted on every policy issue important to them, from housing to the cost of living. That ultimately will be likely what drives Londoners on polling day, with our research also suggesting they’re looking forward to a London Mayor and a national government working together.”
The poll suggested that 24 per cent of respondents who say they voted for Ms Hall against Labour Mayor Sadiq Khan less than two months ago now plan to back Mr Farage’s party.
Overall, Labour were down six points, the Conservatives fell three points, Reform UK were up three points, the Lib Dems were unchanged and the Greens rose one point.
A revised methodology by Savanta showed respondents all the candidates now that they are confirmed, potentially boosting smaller parties. The poll was completed on June 26, the day before Reform UK activists in Clacton where Mr Farage is standing were heard in Channel 4 footage uttering racist and homophobic remarks.
Forty per cent of Londoners said it was better for the capital that the Mayor and the national government are from the same party. That was double the 20 per cent who say it is better when they’re from different parties, while 32 per cent say it does not matter either way.
The top five most important issues facing Londoners were the cost of living (74 per cent), health, social care and the NHS (63 per cent), housing (55 per cent), crime (50 per cent) and the economy (49 per cent).
The poll was commissioned by the Centre for London. The think tank’s Chief Executive Antonia Jennings said: “It’s unsurprising that the soaring cost of living was ranked as the most important issue facing London at the moment in our research – two-thirds of Londoners feel the city is unaffordable.”
The election provides a “window of opportunity” for a Labour-run City Hall to lobby for greater support from a Labour Government in Westminster, Ms Jennings added.
“More resources to assist with our challenges are desperately needed – one in four Londoners are left in poverty after paying their housing costs,” she said. “Alleviating London’s challenges is not just for London – when London does well, higher tax receipts mean more money available for desperately needed investments across the country.”
