Heathrow may not be top of the global tree any more in terms of passenger numbers. But what is sometimes overlooked is that London as a whole remains the busiest aviation city in the world. By some margin.
According to latest available figures London’s six airports handled just over 168 million passengers last year, a fair way ahead of the 147 million who passed through New York’s five locations. Paris is a long way back with 105 million passengers.
Since Covid, passenger numbers have seen a sharp bounce-back. On current trajectories Heathrow is likely to exceed its 2019 peak this year and Gatwick next year or in 2026. Stansted and Luton are also exceptionally busy.
So it is not surprising that all four have drawn up plans for major expansions in capacity. Admittedly Heathrow’s third runway scheme is officially still under a post-Covid review, but the mood music from CEO Thomas Woldbye strongly suggests it will soon be back in the plan.
Today it was the turn of Gatwick boss Stewart Wingate to big up his plans, which would see the current emergency strip converted into a full-blown second runway, although it would only be used for take-offs.
Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves’s pledge to the electorate to deliver solid economic growth suggests that the Government will find it hard to resist some, if not all, of these plans.
Gatwick is a relatively easy win: the project is far less disruptive or politically sensitive than Heathrow’s third runway, does nothave such difficult environmental implications, and can be contained within the existing footprint of the airport. Crucially it can also be delivered relatively quickly, by 2030, rather than the “10 to 15” year horizon for its west London rival’s scheme.
I would not be surprised to see the Gatwick Northern Runway waved through by ministers early in 2025 in what could be the next phase of a major expansion of London’s already enormous airport capacity.
