Football loves its omens and portents. As Gareth Southgate prepares to send his limb-weary players out into the giant illuminated armadillo shell that is the Allianz Arena in Munich on Tuesday night there is perhaps some solace to be taken in the past.
The last time England lost in Hungary in a World Cup year, defeat in Budapest was followed by a joyful, unifying, era-forging World Cup final triumph under a dapper and mild-mannered head coach.
Admittedly, the surprise World Cup winners in question were West Germany in 1954. The glorious era that followed belonged to the powerhouse teams of Franz Beckenbauer and Lothar Matthäus. And the dapper and mild-mannered head coach, Sepp Herberger, turned out to have been a Nazi. But apart from that. Apart from that. Well, what exactly?
It is hard to know what to take from the current slew of deathly close-season England internationals, other than a generalised sense of unease. The defeat in Hungary was no surprise, an awkward, bruising game for a group of England players running on fumes and lactic acid. But it was also one of the worst performances of Southgate’s time in charge, defined by all the things the current era has set its face against: staleness, mediocrity, a lack of special qualities.
It is that general sense of unease that seems to define this England team right now. In Munich England’s travelling support has already become the pre-story, with fears of reprise of the kind of events – booing, rioting, booing children – Southgate seems to have to address every time he finds himself frowning in front of an advert board. Even the triumph of reaching a final last summer was transformed into a toxic event by the aftermath of defeat.
A mangled schedule has hardly helped in the months since. England have played four competitive games against non‑filler opponents since the European Championship and won one of them. There is a fear now that defeat in Munich could just flush this a little further out into the light. Southgate’s greatest gift as England manager has been tone, vibes, energy, clarity. He has above all been a Feelings Manager. Are we reaching a place now where that feeling starts to turn bad?
If so, it would be entirely undeserved. Even in the best of times there has always been a seam of anti-Gareth hostility, with the sense that this is based more in resenting his politics, his unashamedly preachy and stentorian moral leadership, with being annoyed that England players make a gesture against racism before each game. There is frustration too with the non‑cavalier manner in which England have learned to win; and with the fact Southgate isn’t a lad or a chap or a bloke and instead has the manner of a popular and courtly provincial curate.
But the fact remains Southgate’s record as England manager is peerless. Two semi-finals out of two after two in the previous half century. A better win ratio than any other England manager with more than 50 games. Likable teams, victorious penalty shootouts. There may be questions about the development of his team over five years, and about his grasp of fine tactical margins in the biggest matches. But as this team take a breath five months out from a winter World Cup, what Southgate deserves is a little faith.
Perhaps the current run of injuries and absences may even strengthen his hand by flagging up the meagreness of England’s resources in key areas. One of the great misperceptions of Southgate’s time in charge, the stick most often used to beat him with, is the idea England have an unprecedented well of talent, an envy-of-the-world stock of players. The argument is that Southgate is simply a lucky manager, that he is in fact strangling the basic unstoppable England-power of our brave boys.
There are two issues with this. First, it isn’t true. There are plenty of technical, orderly players coming through now. But remove the Anglo-tinted spectacles, peel away the glare of the Premier League’s internationalist brilliance, and the idea of an excess of world-level English talent is simply solipsism.
Look around Europe and there are plenty of other squads just as strong. England fielded five players in their starting XI against Hungary who played in last season’s Champions League. Portugal started with nine in midweek, Spain eight. Germany started with 11 and used 14 in all, nine of whom have actually won club football’s biggest trophy.
Meanwhile England have had one player – Trent Alexander‑Arnold – in the Fifpro team of the year during Southgate’s time in charge. England have no genuine back-up centre-forward. They have a left-back issue. They have Declan Rice, but no other A-listers in central midfield. Would Jordan Pickford, Conor Coady and Harry Maguire be starting for any other major nation?
This is not to denigrate these very successful Premier League players. But when an England team come burdened with the idea they might be underachieving by not actually winning tournaments, it is worth offering a little perspective.
Indeed the notion of wasted talent tends to disguise some more interesting issues with Southgate’s England. Criticism has focused on his use of a back three, which loads an additional defensive player into the team, but has also coincided with England’s best results against the better teams.
This also feels like a chimera. Southgate is not an outstanding attacking coach capable of winning fine‑margin tournament games through creative attacking football. Very few people in the history of football have met that description. His skills are in organisation and control. To abandon this idea now, five months from a tournament, would be irrational. This is England: 2022. We’re here to defend.
For all that, the one really obvious area of weakness is the lack of development in this team over five years. For all Southgate’s success in communication, in allowing players to move through a lighter air with England, the team that goes to Qatar will basically be the same one that went to Russia. The spine will be Pickford, Maguire, John Stones, Harry Kane and Raheem Sterling, plus an energetic defensive midfield. The basic structure, three at the back, passing football, possession in cold areas, remains the same. A good idea is, it seems, a good idea for ever.
To some degree this is through circumstance. Covid stalled the preparations for the European Championship. The loss of a year between tournaments has pretty much flattened any idea of rebuilding this team before the World Cup. But right now it could be argued there is a whiff – just a spritz, a sniff of the fingertips – of Jogi Löw’s Germany in this England set-up, that sense of a failure to build a second team.
Löw’s replacement, his former assistant Hansi Flick has made significant textural changes since last summer’s defeat at Wembley, without ripping out the rump of his players. As England will find in Munich, Germany press high, attack with speed, and favour a bold, Klopp-style high line.
“We want to put the opponent under pressure early on, we want to stress them,” Flick has said. Leroy Sané is back. Joshua Kimmich is playing in the middle. Eight wins and no defeats have come in 10 games since last summer. There is a freshness here that Southgate hasn’t been able to dredge out of a depleted squad at the end of a gruelling year. England’s manager has promised to keep on experimenting on Tuesday night. Victory may be more useful.
