The game of the week is set!
This Sunday at 1:00 p.m. EST, the (2-1) Jacksonville Jaguars face off against the undefeated (3-0) Philadelphia Eagles at Philly’s Lincoln Financial Field.
Doug Pederson, who led the Eagles to their only Super Bowl victory, returns for the first time as an opposing head coach.
Both teams are facing their toughest opponent thus far. The Eagles must prove that they deserve to be one of the top teams in the league (according to the power rankings). Defensively, the Eagles rank among the top 10 leaguewide in both yards and points allowed. Offensively, Jalen Hurts ranks fourth in EPA per dropback among all quarterbacks in the league.
But this is also technically a trap game for the Eagles. They are favored by 6.5 points. The Jaguars’ offense has been on a roll after beating their last two opponents by 20+ points, and their defense leads the league in turnover differential.
This game has so many great matchups, we needed more than one article on it. My colleague Doug Farrar has written about how the Eagles can win this game.
Here are the keys to victory for the Jaguars if they want to come away with an upset win against the Eagles!
Lead with the run game.
As it looks right now, the weather is going to be a huge factor this weekend. Hurricane Ian is making its way up north and it’s expected to bring heavy rain with 15+ mph winds. So, the passing game could be limited.
That would favor the Jaguars as they have a two-headed backfield with Travis Etienne and James Robinson. As a team, the Jaguars are averaging 123 yards per game, and Robinson alone is averaging 4.8 yards per carry.
Currently, the Eagles are allowing an average of 110 rushing yards per game. In the Week 1 matchup against the Detroit Lions, D’Andre Swift rushed for a whopping 144 yards.
D'Andre Swift broke a 51-yard run early against the #Eagles pic.twitter.com/v0DRQI4Vgb
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) September 11, 2022
The Eagles defense did come back in Week 2 against the Minnesota Vikings and held Dalvin Cook to only 17 yards.
So, that tells us that the Jaguars may need to rely on their speed this weekend and Etienne’s usage could be key. He is bound to have a breakout performance, as he has yet to exceed 50 rushing yards in a single game. With Robinson having the hot hand, the Eagles may not be prepared for Etienne’s straight-line speed.
His explosiveness is something that the Jaguars used last week in their win against the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Jaguars came out in a wildcat formation with two receivers in the backfield running to the flat, which spread the defense thin opening the middle of the field.
In the end, whether it’s with Robinson or Etienne, the Jaguars will need to control the clock if they want to come away with a win. That starts and ends with the ground game.
Fourth-down aggressiveness.
The Jaguars and Eagles are both battling it out for fourth down conversion percentages. Both teams are averaging 1.3 per game. But the Jaguars have Robinson in the backfield who currently leads the league in fourth-down yardage (50-yds), and he also has one touchdown.
On fourth and one!
James Robinson gets a 50 yard touchdown!! pic.twitter.com/9VPvUyssvO— Laurie Fitzpatrick (@LaurieFitzptrck) September 25, 2022
According to Sports Info Solutions, the Eagles are last in the league when it comes to EPA in run defense on third and fourth downs. They have allowed 75 rushing yards on only eight carries.
In Week 1, they allowed the Lions to come within one touchdown just before the half, which happened to be on a fourth down.
Getting Swifty on fourth down!#PHIvsDET | 📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/fhbPCDjEPq
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) September 11, 2022
With the Jaguars running a fast-paced offense and Eagles currently allowing the fourth most rushing yards with three down linemen (per SIS), the Jaguars could catch the Eagles thin up-front.
The same clock management argument goes hand-in-hand with fourth down aggressiveness. The Jaguars will need to keep the ball out of Jalen Hurts’ hands and going for it on fourth-down to maintain possession will be critical.
Blitz Jalen Hurts.
There is a misconception about forcing Jalen Hurts to ‘go through his reads’ and play within the pocket. He’s proved time and time again that he can read defenses and maintain poise.
That being said, this is undoubtedly the best front seven that the Eagles has faced thus far. The Jaguars must pressure Hurts on the outside with stunts and twists and focus on collapsing the pocket.
Against the Vikings, pass rusher D.J. Wonnum was able to bend the edge and bring down Hurts from behind.
According to PFF, Hurts has his worst passing grade when under pressure and also getting blitzed (67.0). Therefore, it’s important that the Jaguars not only bring the pressure, but also mix up different blitzes.
The clip below was a linebacker blitz from last week’s game against the Los Angeles Chargers. Lloyd came around the edge as the two defensive linemen collapsed inside.
Once the Jaguars get into the backfield, they must finish!
Here is Doug Pederson when asked about rushing Hurts, “You’ve just got to stay disciplined as you rush. He can break an arm tackle pretty easily. He can make you miss pretty easily. You’ve just got to be under control and disciplined, try to tackle him and get forehands on him and bring him down when you can. It’s a challenge, very much so, because if you get out of your rush lanes, he can make you pay with his legs.”
The Jaguars have given up a lot of yards to quarterbacks in the past. Last year, Zach Wilson had a 52-yard touchdown scramble on a critical third down.
Did not expect Zach Wilson to have the greatest TD run by a quarterback this year, but here we are #Jets #Jaguars #HolySmokes pic.twitter.com/GHYqNZqMTq
— John Breech (@johnbreech) December 26, 2021
The Jaguars’ upgraded their defense from last year but the core defensive backs remain the same. Tackling and staying disciplined when pressuring Hurts will be key this weekend.
Limit the yards after catch.
The previous topic regarding tackling brings us to the Jaguars limiting yards after the catch. Pro football Focus has the Jaguars with a 42.7 tackling grade. With that, the Philadelphia Eagles are currently sixth in the league when it comes to yards after the catch.
It’s no secret that A.J. Brown is like a bowling ball if he catches passes in stride. Here he was last week getting the ball at line of scrimmage and still gaining 13 yards.
Since the Jaguars should be looking to double team Smith and Brown with their secondary, this could leave a ton of open space behind and at the line of scrimmage.
If Lloyd continues to play at a high level, the Jaguars should have no problem shutting down the Eagles short yardage gameplan. Currently, Lloyd leads all NFL rookies with 24 tackles and is the only rookie in the league with at least two interceptions and 15 tackles.
The Jaguars have speed with Lloyd and Foye Oloukun, so these two should have no problem covering sideline-to-sideline. Their success in open space will directly affect the outcome of this game.
Win the special teams battle.
If you are looking for the weak spot on this Eagles team, it would most certainly be their special teams. They currently bottom five in just about every category. They are 28th in overall special teams DVOA, and also 28th in returning kickoffs, averaging 10.2 yards per return. When defending kickoffs, they allow an average of 23.7 yards per return which is tied for 25th.
Jaguars’ returner Jamal Agnew hasn’t had many opportunities so far this season, but he certainly has the potential to bring one back. We saw it last year in the fourth quarter against the Denver Broncos.
Jamal Agnew goes over 100 YARDS for the kickoff return TD! #DUUUVAL
📺: #DENvsJAX on CBS
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/P2inBAFTSQ— NFL (@NFL) September 19, 2021
On defensive side of special teams, the Jaguars only allowed an opponent to start beyond their own 30-yard line five times. They are stopping returners. This forces offenses to travel a far distance in order to get into the opponent’s territory.
