Russian tanks roll on the field during a military drills in Leningrad
(Picture: AP)If Vladimir Putin’s field commanders have pressed the pause button on the operation to expand the Russian military presence in the Donbas pocket, all the signs suggest it will be for a matter of hours not days.
Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, for one, believes that plans for a “full-blown invasion” of Ukraine will be executed very soon.
So we are in a strange game of cat and mouse — with both Russia and the Western alliance each signalling they have a bigger stick to wield should things not go to plan.
These extend much further than the breakaway pockets to substantial chunks of land under the control of the Ukrainian state and forces.
To take them would mean seizing sovereign Ukrainian terrain — the invasion would have begun.
At the same time, Russia’s parliament the Duma has authorised state forces “to operate beyond Russian territory”.
Against this, the sanctions announced by the UK, US and EU partners make sense. It is part of a ratchet strategy — which Putin doesn’t like as it is ambiguous.
My friend the diplomatic sage Bruno Macaes, who has been in Kiev, says it may not be robust but might work — “by the end, the Russian financial system will be abacus-based” he tweeted.
Much of the problem anticipating what comes next is the deluge of intelligence information.
We hear of the number of tanks, aircraft, the marshalling of battalion tactical groups, Spetsnaz and home guard occupation police.
We know where they are — 35, 50 and eight miles from various borders.
This is part of an open intelligence offensive by the US and UK. What it cannot tell us is what the commanders and soldiers in the field are thinking.
And how their command and control works in detail.
