The New England Patriots enter the 2023 NFL draft with the 14th overall pick and plenty of holes to fill.
This is about the time when I begin switching my mock drafts from a “what they should do” to a “what they will likely do” perspective. These may not be the sexiest of picks, but they’re likely what the team will go for based off where they’re selected and the measurables, if it’s a need or the more-than-occasional lesser known prospect.
As time rolls on, we will learn a lot more about each of these prospects, but for now, we’re building this based off what we know now through draft preparations so far.
As the offseason rolls towards the new league year (and start of free agency), it’s time for another seven-round 2023 mock draft, following the Senior and Shrine Bowls.
Round 1, Pick No. 14: OT, Broderick Jones, Georgia
It may be frightening to choose another Georgia offensive tackle in round one. Jones fits the bill for what the Patriots like in their tackles—big, strong, athletic, intelligent. Jones is all of this, and he has less injury concerns coming out than Isaiah Wynn did in 2018.
He will likely impress at the 2022 combine, and may jump higher across the board. I currently have Jones as the No. 2 tackle in the class behind Paris Johnson Jr. and above Peter Skoronski, who were both gone by No. 14 overall.
Round 2, Pick No. 46: CB, Emmanuel Forbes, Mississippi State
Another player that I feel like is a perfect Patriot is Emmanuel Forbes. He has the size and length to be an excellent outside corner and is probably the best ball-hawk in the draft.
His patience and football IQ are attractive to a Patriots team that likes their corners to be technically sound and opportunistic playmakers, rather than press man corners. If the Patriots think someone is good enough to be left on an island, they’ll select them. But at pick No. 46, there was a run on corners in this range.
Round 3, Pick No. 76: WR, Trey Palmer, Nebraska
Palmer tracks the ball well vertically and has a balance and suddenness to his game that should see the Patriots grabbing the 6-foot-1 wideout with their third selection.
I have consistently had the Patriots addressing OT, CB, and WR with their first few picks, and this is no different. With Jakobi Meyers and Nelson Agholor pending as free agents, the Patriots don’t have much in the pipeline besides Tyquan Thornton, an underutilized Kendrick Bourne and an aging DeVante Parker.
The Patriots have no reason to not take shots in the first three rounds until a few hit, especially with the number of productive receivers coming out of the draft the last few years in multiple rounds.
Round 4, Pick No. 107: LB, Henry To'oTo'o, Alabama
To’oTo’o has ties with Alabama, and the Patriots sure love their Alabama linebackers. Besides being from Alabama, To’oTo’o is extremely poised and rarely out of position. Nothing jumps off the tape, but when you watch how technically sound he plays, the Patriots may be drooling over him here in the fourth round.
To’oTo’o has limitations with strength and pass rush, but he makes up for it with his gifted athleticism. He stays in position, has good pursuit, and has good coverage instincts.
There is a chance that he has room to add strength to his frame and could develop into the kind of three-down linebacker the Patriots have been missing for a few years now.
Ja’Whaun Bentley is fine, but the Patriots shouldn’t be afraid to take chances on day three.
Round 4, Pick No. 117: TE, Luke Schoonmaker, Michigan
Whether the Patriots decide to move on from Jonnu Smith or not, they will be in need of another tight end in the pipeline.
So why not take a tight end now, and start the process of developing him with new tight ends coach Will Lawing? Schoonmaker has great size and is a willing blocker that could ultimately carve out a role in New England.
Also, even if Smith is gone, Hunter Henry has two more seasons and is 28 years old. It would be smart to have one or more tight ends in the pipeline. And who knows? Maybe one could turn out to be an elite playmaker.
There’s also the fact that you won’t have to overpay for two tight ends again.
Round 4, Pick #135: S, Trey Dean III, Florida
Dean III was the Shrine Bowl standout many thought he would be. He has been a Patriots fit for me all offseason long, and the coaching staff got a close-up view of the Florida safety.
He struggles in zone coverage. So he won’t be a Devin McCourty replacement, but he could be a potential Adrian Phillips or Jabrill Peppers replacement.
If Peppers is back, his coverage skills and versatility could likely fill the McCourty role, if McCourty retires, giving the Patriots a dynamic safety duo of Peppers and Kyle Dugger. Even so, the Patriots love to use their safeties as hybrid linebackers, which could change if they start to shift from their traditional thumper linebacker. So Dean could be a fit here for depth.
The Patriots love adding depth and adding versatile football players to their defense, which has been one of the more dynamic and confusing defenses for opponents over the last 20-plus years.
Round 5, Pick No. 152: OT, Jaxson Kirkland, Washington
Commanders Receive: No. 192 pick, No. 258 pick, and 2024 6th-round pick
Patriots Receive: No. 152 pick
The Patriots need tackles and although Kirkland mainly played guard, he has plenty of experience at that position with three years at the University of Washington.
Kirkland played left guard purely out of need for Washington, but with his 6-foot-7 and 340-pound frame, he certainly screams right tackle at the next level.
With the Patriots addressing left tackle with the No. 14 pick, they opt to trade up into the fifth round to select a versatile lineman they had the pleasure of seeing in the shrine bowl.
Round 6, Pick No. 210: C, Alex Forsyth, Oregon
Forsyth has played every single position across the offensive front, and Patriots newly-hired offensive line coach Adrian Klemm certainly has inside knowledge on the Oregon center.
The Patriots need to keep the offensive line pipeline rolling, and they especially need versatile players they can try and develop into future starters. Although the Patriots apparently love Kody Russey internally, David Andrews won’t be around forever, and it can’t hurt to have the next guy in waiting, who is capable of stepping into that flex lineman role.
Round 7, Pick No. 233: P, Michael Turk, Oklahoma
Another obvious Patriot pick in this draft is a specialist. With Jake Bailey likely gone after two bad seasons and a filed grievance, along with Nick Folk turning 39 years old and struggling to kick it deeper than 50 yards on most days, the Patriots will need to likely replace both.
At this point, Jake Moody, the best kicker in the draft, is long gone. The Patriots could probably get someone like Chad Ryland out of Maryland as an undrafted free agent to kick for them, but they opt to go with a punter here after failing to bring in a new one in free agency.
Turk was someone they got to see up close and personal with the best Big-12 punter at the Shrine Bowl, and he’d make the most sense to help them fill the void.
