FTSE 100 Live Friday
- GDP rallies ahead of tariffs
- Toy firm withdraws guidance
- Heathrow passenger numbers fall
Market update: Rally stalls as China hits back in trade war, BP shares fall
10:16 , Graeme EvansAn uplift from forecast-beating UK GDP figures quickly faded today after Beijing announced higher tariffs in a deepening of the US-China trade war.
The FTSE 100 index rose 0.9% to 7982 in early dealings only to resume recent trends with a fall of 0.5% or 50 points to 7863.25. The top flight hit a one-year low of 7606 on Wednesday, having started the week at 8055.
Today’s reverse mirrors this week’s volatile trends, particularly the S&P 500 index after five days in a row of trading in an intra-day range of more than 6%.
Records going back to the 1920s show this run has only been beaten during the financial crisis and the early pandemic turmoil in March 2020.
Wall Street futures pointed to more selling today after a further escalation of the US-China trade war today saw Beijing retaliate with a 125% tariff on US imports.
The tensions have left the US dollar at a three-year low against a basket of major currencies, with the pound today at $1.31 after a 1% improvement.
GDP figures boosted interest in sterling after a broad-based rally showed the economy grew by a better-than-expected 0.5% in February.
Services activity rose 0.3% month-on-month and industrial production by 1.5%, but economists warned that tariffs and business tax rises meant this could be as good as it gets for the rest of 2025.
The global uncertainty has fuelled demand for the safe haven of gold, which today surged to a fresh record above $3220 an ounce. That helped Africa-based Endeavour Mining and silver miner Fresnillo to rise 4% at the top of the FTSE 100.
Tesco also added 4.4p to 319p after heavy results-day losses in the previous session due to its warning that profits will be impacted by an industry price war.
On the fallers board, British Airways and Iberia owner IAG fell 4% or 9.3p to 236.4p and Barclays shed 7.3p to 252.95p. That’s left the bank back near where it started the week, having traded between 228p and 289p.
BP shares dropped 2% or 7.6p to remain at a three-year low after it reported weaker first quarter production and UBS analysts removed their Buy stance.
The bank also cut its price target by 24% to 400p, warning that market turbulence will make the delivery of objectives such as debt reduction much harder.
Other blue-chip fallers included Rolls-Royce, which weakened 14.4p to 679.2p, and housebuilder Persimmon following a reverse of 19p to 1096p.
The FTSE 250 index fell 1% or 180.30 points to 18,337.11, having started the week at 18,365. Private equity firm Bridgepoint was back under pressure after a decline of 5% or 13p to 241.8pm, while recruitment business Page lost 11.8p to 251.6p.
Index rally cools amid Wall Street jitters
09:17 , Graeme EvansThe FTSE 100 index is back near its opening mark after traders scaled back their expectations for today’s Wall Street session.
The top flight touched 7982 in early dealings but is now back at 7928.31, a rise of 0.2% or 15.06 points. It started the week at 8055.
Wall Street futures fell back to indicate a flat start to the final session of a highly volatile week.
Gold-linked stocks Fresnillo and Endeavour Mining are top of the FTSE 100 with gains of about 4%. BP and British Airways owner IAG have fallen 3%.
BP downgrade adds to pressure on shares
09:06 , Graeme EvansBP shares have come under more pressure after UBS analysts removed their Buy recommendation on the oil giant.
The bank said the recent rebalancing of BP’s financial framework together with a reset of its strategic direction was an important first step to restore investor confidence.
However, it added: “The next steps, including a reduction of net debt and replenishment of the reserves base, were always going to take longer to achieve, but the level of financial uncertainty in the market makes delivery harder in our view, especially as it relates to BP’s ability to grow earnings and sell assets.”
The bank has downgraded the shares to Neutral with a 24% lower price target of 400p.
BP, which today reported lower production for the first quarter, fell 3% or 10.8p to a three-year low of 330.8p.
Toy firm withdraws guidance amid tariffs uncertainty
08:40 , Graeme EvansCharacter Group, the distributor of toys and merchandise, said tariffs on imports to the United States have “considerably obscured” its ability to forecast sales.
Posting an update to shareholders today, the Oldham based company said it was withdrawing its market guidance for the financial year ending 31 August.
About a fifth of last year’s turnover was generated through the US.
The AIM-listed company, whose portfolio includes Peppa Pig, Pokemon, Stretch Armstrong, Fireman Sam and Scooby Doo, remains confident it will be profitable this year. Shares fell by 8% or 22p to 236p.
FTSE 100 higher as miners rally, BP shares down 2%
08:27 , Graeme EvansMiners and banks are behind a 0.5% improvement for the FTSE 100 index, leaving London’s top flight up 43.81 points to 7957.06 after yesterday’s 3% rise.
HSBC rose 1.5% or 11.2p to 744.9p, Lloyds Banking Group added 0.8p to 67.2p, Rio Tinto improved 81p to 4289p and Anglo American gained 34.4p to 1925.6p.
On the fallers board, AstraZeneca is down 39p to 9979p while BP has continued its poor run by dropping another 2% or 7.5p to 334.1p.
BP told investors that upstream production for the first quarter was lower than the prior quarter, driven by lower output in gas and low carbon energy.
Heathrow reports drop in passenger numbers
08:11 , Graeme EvansHeathrow airport’s passenger numbers declined by 7.5% year-on-year in March.
The airport said 6.2 million people used its four terminals last month, compared with 6.7 million in March 2024.
It attributed the decline to the timing of Ramadan and Easter this year, along with the 10-hour closure on March 21 because of a power outage caused by a fire at a nearby electricity substation.
Tariffs uncertainty clouds GDP rebound
07:51 , Graeme EvansThe UK economy made a broad-based rebound in February after services rose 0.3% month-on-month, industrial production by 1.5% and construction by 0.4%.
Despite encouraging signs consumers are starting to spend more freely, Capital Economics said it is hard to see the economy strengthening much from here.
It said: “The rises in business taxes kick in from April and the clear risk is that the second-order effects of higher US tariffs on the UK economy causes GDP growth to be lower than our below-consensus forecast of 0.8% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026.”
Deutsche Bank said its GDP trackers point to some meaningful upside to first quarter GDP, now closer to 0.65% quarter-on-quarter.
However, it warned the onset of tariffs from this month will start to bite UK industries alongside the rise in trade uncertainty. Its own estimates point to a 0.3%-0.6% hit from President Trump’s 10% tariffs.
S&P 500 seen higher after week of volatile trading
07:35 , Graeme EvansWall Street futures are pointing to an improved session after the S&P 500 index last night registered a fifth day in a row with an intra-day trading range of more than 6%.
From a starting point of 5456 after Wednesday’s 9.5% relief rally, the benchmark fell as far as 5115 before closing 3.5% lower at 5268.
Based on data going back to the 1920s, Deutsche Bank said the only runs longer in terms of volatility were at the peak of the financial crisis in October 2008 and during the early pandemic turmoil in March 2020.
Yesterday’s market downturn accelerated after the White House clarified that total tariffs on China would now be 145% rather than 125% .
Deutsche Bank added: “Neither the US nor China are showing signs of backing down, with President Trump expressing confidence in his tariff plans yesterday, even as he acknowledged potential "transition problems".
GDP surprise after February 0.5% growth
07:07 , Graeme EvansThe UK economy today recorded its strongest month-on-month growth rate in almost a year, with GDP up 0.5% in February.
The figure was much better than the 0.1% increase forecast in the City and followed a flat performance in January.
The three-month growth stands at 0.6%, better than the 0.4% consensus. A resilient month for industrial production underpinned the positive GDP surprise.
FTSE 100 seen higher despite US fall, gold at new record
07:00 , Graeme EvansThe FTSE 100 index is set to consolidate yesterday’s 3% advance, with IG Index futures pointing to a rise of about 60 points or 0.7% at the opening bell.
The improvement follows last night’s weaker Wall Street session as US stocks gave up some of the gains seen in the wake of President Trump’s tariffs pause.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.5%, the S&P 500 lost 3.5% and the Nasdaq Composite shed 4.3% after Wednesday’s jump of 12%.
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 has continued its volatile run by falling 3.5% but the Hang Seng index and Shanghai Composite are both higher.
The safe haven asset of gold topped $3200 for the first time earlier today before falling back. Brent Crude is just under 1% higher at $63.85 a barrel.
