While Liverpool might have strengthened their attack in January by signing Cody Gakpo from PSV Eindhoven, it’s fair to say the mid-season transfer window was a disappointing one for Reds fans.
Performances during the first half of the season were bad, but their form since the restart after the World Cup has been even worse. As a result, at the Premier League midway point, they find themselves down in ninth and ten points off the top four. Champions League qualification is looking increasingly unlikely.
Having seen both their League Cup and FA Cup defences end prematurely last month, Liverpool are down to just the Champions League as their sole hope of silverware this season. Facing European champions Real Madrid in the round-of-16 in the weeks ahead, even the most optimistic Red would struggle to see Jurgen Klopp’s men downing Carlo Ancelotti’s side.
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If their mentality monsters lost two finals to the Spaniards, as well as a quarter-final meeting in between, what hope does this poor imitation of Liverpool, boasting a low on confidence, out of form, ageing squad stuck in transition possibly have?
With midfield the worst of the Reds’ problems this year, Anfield sources had confirmed a revamp is planned for 2023. Meanwhile, Jude Bellingham is well-documented to be Liverpool’s first-choice target, with Matheus Nunes also of long-standing interest.
Yet neither were available for transfer in January as the Reds resisted strengthening their engine-room. Unsurprisingly, given their current plight, such a stance has not gone down well with supporters.
But they can’t say they weren’t warned, with Klopp repeatedly insisting throughout the month that Gakpo would be Liverpool’s only January signing. The German would suggest that funds weren’t there for others on more than one occasion, while he’d also point out that the Reds’ squad is already packed full to the brim, with Calvin Ramsay and Arthur Melo left out of their Champions League squad as a result.
Should Liverpool’s form not improve in the Premier League and they find themselves eliminated from the Champions League before we even reach spring, then this season is essentially a write-off. For the first time in Klopp’s Anfield reign, the Reds could find themselves with nothing significant to play for in the final weeks of the campaign.
The club’s transfer strategy is inevitably going to face increasing scrutiny as a result. After all, owners FSG have often been criticised for their restricted investment in the Liverpool squad over the years, but at least in the past they have been protected by results, Champions League involvement, and silverware. But now all three are slipping through Reds fingers, with the decision to not yet strengthen Klopp’s midfield looking increasingly costly.
Anfield sources would insist in the summer that Liverpool have a clear strategy behind the scenes. Outsiders might not agree with decisions made, but results dictate whether it’s right or not. This season, so far at least, it has ultimately failed Klopp as the Reds fell into transition after so nearly winning an unprecedented quadruple.
If a midfield overhaul is planned for this year, why is it on hold until the summer? The fact that such business is in the pipeline suggests funds are there. You’d imagine the unavailability of Bellingham and Nunes has more than played a part.
Yet business from some of Liverpool’s ‘Big Six’ rivals will have rubbed extra salt in the wounds in the face of such inactivity. On deadline day alone, Chelsea spent a whopping £106m on Enzo Fernandez, bringing in the World Cup winner, who had also been linked repeatedly with the Reds, as the long-term heartbeat of their own midfield overhaul.
Meanwhile, Arsenal spent an initial £10m on Jorginho while Manchester United signed Marcel Sabitzer on loan, showing that short-term budget solutions of quality were available at least.
Alas, regardless of funds, Liverpool’s squad still had no room. While it would have been hard to predict the likes of both Fabinho and Jordan Henderson enduring such a drop-off in form that made a revamp even more necessary, the fact that the Reds have found themselves in transition at all, plotting a big overhaul in one fell swoop, paints a picture of a naive lack of foresight.
The only blessing for Kopites is that such issues will be addressed come the summer. While their squad might be full now, they will have plenty of room to manoeuvre in at the end of the season, providing FSG are willing to invest.
As things stand, Liverpool boast a 24-man squad for Premier League and European action, with the Reds unable to name a full 25-man squad due to them not boasting enough homegrown players over the age of 21. However, Curtis Jones no longer classes as an Under-21s player from next season so technically solves such an issue, counting as homegrown for domestic action and club-trained for continental.
But a number of players will leave Anfield this summer with James Milner, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Naby Keita, Roberto Firmino, and Adrian all out of contract, Arthur set to return to Juventus at the end of his loan, and the likes of Caoimhin Kelleher and Nat Phillips potentially moving on in search of starting football.
While the likes of Firmino are reportedly in negotiations to sign a new contract, hypothetically if all eight departed then Liverpool would be left with 17 senior players over the age of 21 for Premier League action. Meanwhile, they’d fill up 19 places in their European squad, with Fabio Carvalho and Calvin Ramsay both needing to be registered despite being under the age of 21 as the pair haven’t completed two years at Anfield to be eligible for List B.
From that 17, four would be homegrown in Joe Gomez, Jordan Henderson, Curtis Jones, and Trent Alexander-Arnold. Meanwhile, in Europe, Carvalho would take that total to five with the Reds boasting three of the four required club-trained players amongst such a quota.
As a result, Liverpool could have the room to sign up to eight players over the age of 21 in such circumstances, though four would need to be homegrown to name a full 25-man squad in the Premier League. Meanwhile, they could bring in six senior players if they didn’t wish to leave anyone out of a full European squad, provided three of those signings were home-grown and one qualified as club-trained. In other words, they have space for three or four overseas players over the age of 21.
It’s easy to see why the Reds reportedly have interest in Borussia Dortmund’s Jude Bellingham and Chelsea’s Mason Mount when you look at such quotas, though it’s worth noting that the former would qualify as an Under-21s player and not need to be registered for Premier League action next season, but would need to be registered to feature in Europe. Meanwhile, Liverpool could use Rhys Williams and/or Leighton Clarkson to bolster their club-trained and homegrown quotas next year if they desired, and won’t be left short regardless when you consider the likes of Harvey Elliott, Fabio Carvalho, Stefan Bajcetic, Calvin Ramsay, Ben Doak, Kaide Gordon, Tyler Morton, and Bobby Clark will still all be underage.
Of course, the likes of Firmino, Keita, and Milner could still agree new contracts at Anfield, while Kelleher and Phillips could remain Liverpool players also. Alternatively, the Reds could potentially be willing to sell the likes of Fabinho or Joel Matip, which could raise funds and would free up further room as well.
Either way, after a quiet January on the transfer front, Liverpool’s summer is poised to be rather more busy. It can’t not be, given the season the Reds are suffering and the players poised to depart. A lack of space might have excused them mid-season but that won't be the case once the window re-opens once more.
Liverpool’s strategy has let them down this season, with results suggesting it was a mistake not to already initiate a midfield revamp. But with a clear plan said to still be in place, come the summer Anfield bosses need to make up for lost time.
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