The necessary shift from in-person film festivals to digital only to reduced capacity hybrid iterations as a result of Covid-19 had an inevitable impact on how we define and measure Oscar buzz. That on-the-ground atmosphere, the visceral reactions, those impassioned afterparty chats, the things many prognosticators would use to predict a winner or a loser, were replaced with … tweets.
Last year pushed us closer to some semblance of normality but this year felt like the real thing again, with bigger audiences and bigger movies, and so the race should feel that much bigger itself. But it’s one that is so far proving difficult to get a handle on, some sure bets but more question marks, most frontrunners yet to fully emerge.
Back in January, with the rise of the Omicron variant, the Sundance film festival stayed online only, a blow to a festival that also acts as a marketplace, the majority of films seeking distribution. Last year it gave us our surprise best picture winner in Coda, an old-fashioned Sundance crowd-pleaser, the likes of which we haven’t seen succeed in recent years, but this year proved less fruitful, at least from where we stand right now. One of the biggest talking points of the festival was Emma Thompson and her revelatory performance in Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, a two-hander about a woman and a sex worker that charmed audiences and pushed her into the best actress race. It was bought by Searchlight, and despite also wowing in Berlin, it was given a Hulu release, a strange decision that would make it ineligible for Oscars. But a recent petition was made by the studio to the Academy and Thompson, for reasons unknown, is now deemed a contender once again. There’s a great deal of love for her in and out of the industry (she’s won two Oscars before) and it feels like a more-than-deserving and more-than-accessible nomination (it was one of the first screeners sent out to voters).
The only other potential contender from the festival was Bill Nighy who could find himself in the best actor race for Living, the Kazuo Ishiguro-scripted remake of Akira Kurosawa’s 1953 film Ikiru. It could be a little too quiet to register but it’s been receiving a relatively bullish rollout from Sony Pictures Classics (who led Anthony Hopkins all the way from Sundance to an Oscar win for The Father), having hit Venice, Telluride and Toronto festivals before making its way to London. Elsewhere, potential on-paper contenders like John Boyega for Breaking, Elizabeth Banks for Call Jane and Cooper Raiff for Cha Cha Real Smooth fell at the first hurdle.
Moving on to Cannes, which did take place as planned in-person, awards buzz came from both in and out of competition, a rarity for the festival. Ruben Östlund’s bold and brutal Triangle of Sadness didn’t appeal to everyone with its unusual combination of class satire and gross-out comedy but it took home the Palme d’Or, with loose comparisons to Parasite, and continued to play well at Toronto before hitting New York next. If the vomit jokes don’t turn off older voters, it could edge its way into the best picture race. James Gray’s knotty family drama Armageddon Time, the latest introspective auteur attempt to find broader meaning in the details of their own youth, landed awkwardly with many expressing polite praise, but others leaving baffled. It’s a maybe for now, its US premiere at the New York film festival next month probably giving us the final word on its chances. There were also mostly strong reviews for Hirokazu Koreeda’s Broker and Park Chan-wook’s Decision to Leave which could both feature in the international feature category.
Outside of the official competition, Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis was divisive but had enough positive reviews, and enough box office, to mark it out as a contender (the Academy has rewarded music biopics with far less support). The festival also saw a splashy bow for Top Gun: Maverick, the surprise hit of the summer, which might seem thin in comparison with other best picture maybes but it was a genuine phenomenon upon release and in the months after, becoming one of the biggest films of all time, probably garnering admiration from many Academy members for its ability to pack ’em in after an extended period of uncertainty. Acting nods might be asking too much but expect it to also count in most of the tech races.
It was Venice next, the most likely festival to produce Oscar contenders (last year brought The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter and Spencer) and we were handed a best actress frontrunner with Cate Blanchett’s universally adored turn in Tár. The film, which is yet to encounter a negative review, sees the two-time Oscar winner star as a complicated conductor, whose fame is threatened when some hidden truths threaten to break free. Writer-director Todd Field has a history of bringing his actors into the Oscar race as nominees (Marisa Tomei, Tom Wilkinson and Sissy Spacek for In the Bedroom and Kate Winslet and Jackie Earle Haley for Little Children) and Tár may well bring a win as well as a showing in some other key categories. Blanchett was named best actress at the festival alongside best actor winner Colin Farrell for his performance in Martin McDonagh’s pitch black comedy The Banshees of Inisherin, a film that seems poised to repeat the awards success of his 2017 offering Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (McDonagh also won best screenplay). It’s not got quite the same surface substance (it, mercifully for us this time, can’t really be tied to a specific “issue”) but it’s had a far warmer reception across the board (it was also a big audience hit in Toronto) and Farrell and co-star Gleeson will probably find themselves an integral part of the season.
But Farrell faces major competition from Brendan Fraser, an unlikely blast from the past (and star of Blast from the Past), whose much-touted comeback ticks all the boxes for the Academy. In noted comeback-assister Darren Aronofsky’s The Whale he plays a reclusive 600lb gay man, a transformative performance in a film that has found its fair share of detractors (the Guardian’s Peter Bradshaw called it a “vapid, hammy and stagey movie”) but the narrative surrounding him is juicy enough to keep him in the conversation (standing ovation reports got increasingly tiresome this season but his tearful response to The Whale’s success was Oscar catnip). There’s an equally alluring narrative to Ana de Armas’s performance in Andrew Dominik’s highly controversial Marilyn Monroe biopic Blonde and while the film has been met with its fair share of boos, it could be the kind of wild, go-for-broke turn that lands her a nod. Elsewhere in Venice, Olivia Wilde’s cursed thriller Don’t Worry Darling and Florian Zeller’s spiritual sequel The Son didn’t connect while Netflix scored two auteur-led passion project missteps with Noah Baumbach’s White Noise and Alejandro G Iñárritu’s Bardo.
It was straight on to Telluride next, a more boutique-y festival with a smaller lineup aimed at a particular cross-section, and most attendees were busy talking about Women Talking, Sarah Polley’s adaptation of the acclaimed novel by Miriam Toews. Loosely based on fact, it’s a story of Mennonite women deciding how to deal with sexual assault in a community led and controlled by men. An impressive ensemble were all praised but it’ll probably be Claire Foy and Rooney Mara battling it out in the best supporting actress category while Polley’s film should see itself score highly elsewhere. The weekend’s other big premiere was Sam Mendes’s uncharacteristically small character-driven drama Empire of Light which led to praise for stars Olivia Colman and Michael Ward but an (unfairly) underwhelming response overall. Don’t count out Colman, though, beloved by every voting academy there is, and the film might have enough craft prestige (including Roger Deakins for cinematography and Atticus Ross and Trent Reznor for music) to push it into certain races. While there were deservedly kind words for Florence Pugh in Sebastian Lelio’s The Wonder, the film might fly too far under the radar to count.
Next up was the Toronto film festival, the biggest and most populist of all festivals, which after a muted half-return to normal last year, came back with force this year to sold-out crowds and wall-to-wall biggies. The biggest of them all was Steven Spielberg’s semi-autobiographical drama The Fabelmans, a major get for any festival given the director’s tendency to premiere even his most festival-y movies outside of that world, which was met with enthusiasm by all, scoring five-star reviews and winning the people’s choice award, a major predictor of awards success. Likely acting nods will go to Michelle Williams, going big as a stand-in for Spielberg’s mother and a show-stopping two-scene turn from Judd Hirsch (so effective that the premiere audience applauded him as the character left). The film is the closest we have to a frontrunner right now.
There were other big audience hits too. Viola Davis’s self-proclaimed magnum opus The Woman King was a rousing success, the sort of old-fashioned historical epic that the Academy used to go wild for, and with a cast of women at the top of the game, it could spark off a number of different FYC campaigns, particularly for Davis, loved by the Academy (one win, three nominations) and the film’s strong start at the US box office will help keep it in the conversation. Rian Johnson’s much-anticipated sequel to Knives Out, mysteriously titled Glass Onion, was another crowd-pleaser and could follow in the footsteps of its predecessor with a best original screenplay nomination (Janelle Monáe is the most likely star to get an acting nod) but it could be too big and silly to register with some. Audiences also warmed to Bros but Apatow-produced comedies tend not to be Oscar-friendly (an original screenplay nomination is the best Billy Eichner might hope for).
There was a far frostier reception for Harry Styles and his performance in the period romance My Policeman, a film that received some of the most negative notices of the season, while Peter Farrelly’s Green Book follow-up The Greatest Beer Run Ever is unlikely to repeat that film’s success after middling reviews. Elsewhere, Jessica Chastain and Eddie Redmayne both scored decent, if unspectacular reviews for The Good Nurse while Jennifer Lawrence’s PTSD drama Causeway was liked by some but could be too small to compete. Also, don’t count out Jeremy Pope and Gabrielle Union for The Inspection, a sensitive and solidly received drama about a gay man in the military.
Outside of the festivals, we have a strong contender in Everything Everywhere All at Once, a film that came from nowhere before summer and became a sleeper smash, garnering the most praise for star Michelle Yeoh who is close to a lock for a best actress nod. Buzz on David O Russell’s starry caper Amsterdam isn’t great after a rather damp reaction to last week’s premiere so don’t expect that one to count. The upcoming New York film festival will see the unveiling of Till, the drama about the lynching of Emmett Till and the activism that his mother took on after. Early word from those who have seen suggests that it could bring the deserving Danielle Deadwyler into the best actress category. There will also be the world premiere of She Said, the adaptation of the novel that covers the hunt to bring down Harvey Weinstein. It’s prestige-y stuff that’s hopefully more engaging than the drab trailer and could be most effective for star Carey Mulligan, already beloved by the Academy (two nominations thus far). Films still to premiere include Damien Chazelle’s raucous Hollywood-set comedy Babylon starring Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie and Jean Smart, the Whitney Houston biopic I Wanna Dance With Somebody that could score for lead Naomi Ackie, sequels to blockbusting best picture nominees Avatar and Black Panther (could Angela Bassett’s rousing trailer speech be indication of a best supporting actress-size performance?), Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio which could be a thing and gay weepie Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies based on Michael Ausiello’s best-selling memoir.
Seven safe-ish nominee bets
Cate Blanchett – best actress, Tár
Martin McDonagh – best original screenplay, The Banshees of Inisherin
Michelle Yeoh – best actress, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Michelle Williams – best actress, The Fabelmans
Brendan Fraser – best actor, The Whale
Roger Deakins – best cinematography, Empire of Light
Sarah Polley – best adapted screenplay, Women Talking
