A few days after Amanda Stoker announced her run for Queensland state parliament in June, the former federal senator was due to appear at a panel discussion organised by the libertarian lobby group, the Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance (ATA).
Stoker has built her reputation pitching herself to groups like the ATA, which exists in a political space that brings together folks from the Liberal National Party’s conservative fringe and the coterie of small freedom parties that have splintered to the right.
She is a prominent regular at anti-abortion rallies and campaigned last year by pitching herself in far more radical forums than the ATA.
But three hours before the ATA event, after a phone call from the LNP headquarters, Stoker pulled out.
The figurehead of the LNP’s insurgent Christian right faction was suddenly taking her political cues from the party’s head office.
On Saturday, Stoker won preselection for the Redlands seat of Oodgeroo with considerable institutional support, including opposition leader David Crisafulli and some moderates, who backed her candidacy as the “lesser of two upheavals” when it looked as if she would face off against controversial former federal MP Andrew Laming.
Laming was eventually nixed by the party’s vetting, paving the way for Stoker to win a party vote against Daniel Hobbs on Saturday.
‘Unintended consequences’
Some moderates in the LNP are wary of “unintended consequences” of backing Stoker, who has expressed strong views opposing abortion, transgender rights and voluntary assisted dying. Her personal support for nuclear energy is at odds with the state party’s position.
Within the LNP state caucus (as opposed to within some sections of the membership) the party’s Christian right MPs are not particularly influential. When the ultraconservative retiring Oodgeroo MP Mark Robinson ran for the leadership in 2017 he reportedly won just two votes – his own and fellow evangelical Fiona Simpson.
“For all the attention the Christian right gets within the party, and for sure there is a growing grassroots membership, they have a very small presence in the state parliament – really only two or three MPs,” one moderate LNP member said.
“So the question is, is inviting their [de facto] leader into the mix a mistake?
“Labor will attack us on abortion and other things that wouldn’t have even been campaign issues.”
The LNP knows that if it wants to win Brisbane seats from Labor, it needs to present a more progressive, inclusive face to the electorate. Winning government next year is not possible without winning Brisbane seats full of younger, educated and increasingly left-leaning voters.
Put simply, the party does not want an election fought over the sorts of social issues that have previously defined Stoker as a politician.
Another worry is that Stoker – who until Sunday night hosted a show on Sky News – could be portrayed as a leadership challenger to Crisafulli.
“Sky after dark would almost immediately be campaigning to make her premier [after the election],” the moderate said.
Stoker recalibrated
Stoker’s road to preselection has involved some nifty political footwork.
Initially aligned with Liberal moderates, Stoker won a shock preselection contest for a 2018 senate vacancy with the backing of the Christian right, before going on to serve as an assistant minister for women, industrial relations and to the attorney-general under Scott Morrison.
But having positioned herself as the successor of parliament’s most conservative warrior, Stoker – who once accused former state leader Deb Frecklington of “playing the gender card” – has now had to recalibrate.
She told the Australian newspaper on Monday that conservative cultural issues would take a back seat to kitchen table concerns. She also made clear she wanted to be a team player.
“I’ll always be a values person and … want that to be the way we anchor our policies, but there is really important work to do in our core priority issues,” Stoker said. “We need to be completely focused on the (issues) that are making life hard for Queenslanders.”
With polls pointing towards a difficult election for Queensland’s Labor government in 2024, the state opposition has so far avoided the sorts of factional and personality divisions that grounded its 2020 campaign. Frecklington never really recovered from an 11th hour backroom attempt to have her replaced.
A day after her preselection, Stoker has already had to hose down leadership speculation.
On 4BC radio on Sunday a listener, David, suggested Stoker should “do a Campbell Newman” and lead the LNP from outside parliament.
Stoker laughed at the comment. She wouldn’t entertain the idea, she said.
