Good morning.
At least 84 people were killed and many more injured in a double bomb attack in the city of Kerman in south-eastern Iran on Wednesday. Iranian officials said bombs were placed on a road leading to the cemetery where thousands were gathered to mark the anniversary of the assassination of Qassem Suleimani, who was the head of Iran’s al-Quds force. The attack, which is the deadliest Iran has seen since the revolution in 1979, has stoked tensions in an increasingly volatile region.
Though accusations were initially levelled at the US and Israel by Iranian officials, causing fear that the war in Gaza would become a regional conflict, Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility last night in a statement posted on its Telegram channels. Details in the announcement, which said that two IS members had detonated their explosive belts in the crowd, differed from the statements put out by the Iranian government, which claimed the bombs had been placed in bags and detonated remotely.
The news may come as a relief to Tehran, as it takes the pressure off to respond militarily to Israel. But, as the war between the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) and Hamas continues to rage in Gaza, the situation in the whole region remains extremely tense.
To understand the fallout, for today’s newsletter I spoke with Mehran Kamrava, a professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar and an expert on Iran, the Persian Gulf, and the politics of the Middle East. That’s right after the headlines.
Five big stories
Police | The leader of Britain’s police chiefs’ organisation, Gavin Stephens, has become the most senior serving leader to say that policing is institutionally racist, as he called for a fundamental redesign of national policies and practices to eliminate discrimination.
Politics | Keir Starmer has promised to “fight fire with fire” against Conservative attacks this year, setting up what is likely to be one of the longest and most bruising general election campaigns in recent history. The Labour leader said he would not shy away from aggressive campaign tactics, hours after Sunak indicated he was planning to go to the polls in the second half of the year.
Middle East | A US airstrike in Baghdad has killed Mushtaq Jawad Kazim al-Jawari, commander of an Iranian-backed Shia militia that Washington blames for attacks on American forces in the region, according to US officials.
Education | The government is to make a new effort to repair sagging school attendance figures in England that remain stubbornly higher than before the Covid pandemic. The education secretary is expected to announce funding for “attendance mentors” in some of the worst-affected areas, including Blackpool and Walsall, where rates of unauthorised absences remain far above national levels.
Housing | UK homeowners are facing a £19bn increase in mortgage costs as millions more fixed-rate deals expire and borrowers are forced to renegotiate their home loans after the toughest round of interest rate increases in decades.
In depth: ‘All initial indications showed that this was the work of IS’
Even before Islamic State claimed responsibility, this week’s attack bore the hallmarks of the group, Kamrava says: “All initial indications showed that this was the work of IS, because in the past they have carried out identical attacks.” In fact, the Iranian authorities already seemed to have ditched the idea that Israel was behind the attacks when reports emerged early on Thursday that it was bolstering security along its borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan.
In response, Iran is “likely to shoot missile attacks on IS bases in Iraq and Syria in the coming days”, Kamrava adds. The way the bombing was carried out suggests that the Iranian regime was caught off guard and so the government could increase the number of its security forces, particularly in predominately Sunni areas, and potentially add more checkpoints.
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The significance of the bombing
Though terrorist attacks in Iran are uncommon, they do happen. In 2017, 17 civilians were killed and 43 were injured after a group of IS terrorists attacked the Iranian parliament and the mausoleum of Ayatollah Khomeini. “Iran is not as secure as one might think at first sight,” Kamrava says. “For example, you can go to a lot of the mausoleums, monuments and other public places without having your backpack checked. On an occasion where thousands of people gather on foot, it becomes fairly easy to carry out a terrorist attack of this magnitude.”
The timing of the bombing also came at a particularly tempestuous moment: a day earlier Hamas’s deputy leader, Saleh al-Arouri, an ally of Iran, was killed in Beirut, along with six others. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied responsibility but said that whoever was responsible made a “surgical strike against the Hamas leadership”. Hamas called the killing a “terrorist attack” and its ally Hezbollah has said it plans to respond, raising fears of the conflict spilling into other parts of the region. This comes after Iran and its allies accused Israel of killing a high-ranking Iranian general in Syria last year and escalating clashes on the border between Israel and Lebanon.
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The fallout
Though Israel was not involved in this attack, the regional tension is unlikely to decline. In fact, the chaos and finger-pointing over the last two days have likely aggravated the situation. “Iran also consider the United States to be responsible for the rise of the Islamic State in the first place. So, at least insofar as Iranian rhetoric against the US is concerned, that is likely to continue and, in fact, most likely be made even harsher,” Kamrava adds.
Throughout the conflict in Gaza, Iran has stuck with its policy of supporting “resistance forces”, arming proxy groups and disrupting maritime trade in the Red Sea, so there may be further Houthi attacks on shipping and hardening of rhetoric, but little more.
“It appears that despite the magnitude of the attack and the fact that, initially, Iranian authorities pointed the finger at the United States and Israel, the fallout from this will be relatively limited, likely resulting in additional clamping down on IS in Iran rather than resulting in further escalation of the Gaza war,” Kamrava says.
What else we’ve been reading
Nadav Hanan, who was at the Nova dance festival on 7 October 2023, describes his escape from Hamas attackers, zigzagging more than 15 miles over rough ground in bare feet, surviving multiple ambushes. Clare Longrigg, acting head of newsletters
Beauty is pain goes the old saying – but these 19th and 20th-century cosmetic tricks take the phrase to a whole new level. Emma Beddington explores the painful and even dangerous treatments women used to use perfect their look. Nimo
Dr Ekwoge Abwe describes the moment he saw chimpanzees in Cameroon using stones to crack nuts. They were over a thousand miles away from the first group to be observed using tools, which revolutionised our understanding of primate culture. Clare
There has been an endless carousel of biopics about men made by men this past year, so Anne Billson reframed the focus on to the powerful female characters in these films who “challenge their menfolk for equal billing”. Nimo
Libby Brooks writes about working with Camila Batmanghelidjh, whose inspiring work with challenging kids should not be tarnished by those who felt challenged by her approach. Clare
Sport
Football | A VAR-instigated red card against Dominic Calvert-Lewin overshadowed Crystal Palace and Everton’s 0-0 FA Cup draw.
Tennis | Elina Svitolina fought back from a set down to beat Emma Raducanu 6-7 (5), 7-6 (3), 6-1 on her return from injury in the second round of the ASB Classic in Auckland.
Cricket | India completed the quickest victory in Test history, levelling their two-match series against South Africa by winning early on the second afternoon in Cape Town. The tourists chased down a fourth innings total of 79 in 12 overs at Newlands on Thursday to wrap up the game, scheduled to end on Sunday evening, in 642 balls.
The front pages
“Labour will fight fire with fire, Starmer warns Tories” – the Guardian’s top story this morning is the opposition leader saying he’s not afraid of aggressive election campaigning. The Financial Times says “Sunak signals election will be held in second half of this year”. “Rishi’s tax cut pledge kicks off election battle” says the Daily Express, while the i has “No tax cuts for two years under Labour, hints Starmer”. “Doctors told: NHS belongs to all of us, not just you” – that’s the Times beating the anti-strike drum. “Navy has so few sailors ships must be scrapped” reports the Daily Telegraph. “Top lawyer demands … cops must probe Andrew sex claims” – the Daily Mirror covers the Jeffrey Epstein document release; the Metro has “Andrew in ‘orgy on Epstein isle’”; and there is “No way back” from this for the Duke of York, says the Daily Mail.
Something for the weekend
Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read and listen to right now
TV
Truelove (Channel 4)
Lindsay Duncan (above left) is magnificent in this exquisite drama about a group of old friends who meet at a funeral and make a drunken pact to help each other shuffle off this mortal coil should the indignities of age or illness become too much to bear. Among them, Tom (Karl Johnson) points out, they have the necessary skills to get away with – well, whether you call it murder or an act of love is the central question of the series. Lucy Mangan
Music
Bill Ryder-Jones: Iechyd Da
Since Bill Ryder-Jones left the Coral in 2008 after five Top 10 albums, he’s been quietly busying away in his Yawn studio in West Kirby on the Wirral Peninsula. Iechyd Da is probably his most hopeful, optimistic album, but there’s an underlying melancholy. But musically, the album isn’t dark at all. It’s overwhelmingly lovely, with classy hooks and rousing choruses. Dave Simpson
Film
Good Grief (Netflix)
Dan Levy, the son of Eugene and co-creator of TV comedy Schitt’s Creek, has made an agonisingly indulgent feature debut with a bittersweet relationship dramedy for which he is writer, director, producer and star, set in and around various tasteful upmarket properties in London and Paris. The film is well intentioned but bogged down by artificial dialogue and unfunny jokes. Peter Bradshaw
Podcast
White Devil
Widely available, episodes weekly from Mon
A gunshot goes off, a high-ranking officer is found dead with a bullet wound from his own gun – and the only person around is wealthy socialite Jasmine Hartin (see main picture). In case this crime story set in Belize isn’t weird enough, Hartin is also the former daughter-in-law of Lord Ashcroft – the Tory peer whose David Cameron biography featured that pig sex claim. This investigation is a twisty, headscratching journey into a baffling case. Alexi Duggins
Today in Focus
Bombs, boat sinkings and assassinations: is the Middle East descending into war?
Beyond the conflict in Gaza it has been a violent few weeks in the wider Middle East, from attacks on shipping in the Red Sea to bomb blasts in Iran and a killing by drone in Beirut. Julian Borger explains what may happen next
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
A diplomatic breakthrough has meant 62 Rohingya refugees can start a new life in America. In December, Bangladesh allowed the first cohorts to leave after the US agreed to take some of the refugees. The number of people who have since flown to the US might be few, but resettlement has given them hope of opportunity and security that was denied them in Bangladesh.
“We have escaped the prison,” says Nurul Haque, 31, who moved to Portland, Oregon with his wife and son. “For 31 years, I did not have even basic rights. Here I am no longer living in panic. I no longer fear. I can ride the bus. I can walk the streets and no one asks who I am.”
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until Monday.
