Good morning. Eight years of growth in living standards will be wiped out by 2024. Unemployment may rise by half a million. And Britain is in recession. Those were the stark takeaways from the Office for Budget Responsibility’s assessment of the public finances yesterday – and in his autumn statement, Jeremy Hunt did everything he could to spread the blame around the world. “There is a global energy crisis, a global inflation crisis and a global economic crisis,” he said. “There may be a recession made in Russia, but there is a recovery made in Britain.”
Labour weren’t having any of it – and you might expect that the public will be receptive to their critique of the government’s record. So what does that critique look like – and are voters ready to hear an alternative? For today’s newsletter, I spoke to political pollster Joe Twyman about how public opinion will shape the fight over the public finances that is likely to define the next couple of years in politics. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Cop27 | UN secretary general António Guterres has warned of a breakdown in trust between “developed and emerging economies” at climate talks in Egypt. The country’s foreign minister has given a gloomy assessment of the state of the meeting with only one full day of official negotiations to go.
Twitter | Twitter temporarily closed its offices on Thursday as hundreds of reported resignations came after employees were asked to sign a pledge to work “long hours at high intensity”.
Jamal Khashoggi | The Biden administration has told a US court that Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, should be granted sovereign immunity in a civil case involving the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, effectively ending a last ditch attempt to hold him legally accountable for the 2018 killing.
MH17 | A Dutch court has found three men guilty of the murder of 298 people on board flight MH17, which was shot down by a Russian surface-to-air missile when it was flying over eastern Ukraine in 2014. The Kremlin has always denied any involvement, while claiming it was excluded from the investigation.
Health | The world’s first vaccine to treat deadly cancerous brain tumours can potentially give patients years of extra life, a global clinical trial has concluded. One of the trial’s chief investigators said the evidence showed DCVax had resulted in “astonishing” enhanced survival for patients.
In depth: Why the fight over ‘economic competence’ is key to Starmer’s strategy
When shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves stood up to respond to Jeremy Hunt’s autumn statement (see the key points at a glance here), she sought to paint a picture of her opponents as, above all, inept. “All the country got was an invoice for the economic carnage the government has created,” she said. “Never again can the Conservatives claim to be the party of economic competence.”
That’s been a common theme in Labour’s attacks since Kwasi Kwarteng’s manic mini-budget: handcuff Hunt and Rishi Sunak to their predecessors. It’s a powerful rhetorical attack, and it won praise in some quarters: for the Spectator, Patrick O’Flynn wrote that Reeves was the most effective critic of the Tory record “since Gordon Brown faced off against Ken Clarke in the early 1990s”. But critics would say it leaves something big on the table: a positive vision of what Labour would do differently. One big question for the next two years is whether those constraints align with the way voters see things.
***
What kind of impact has the arrival of Sunak and Hunt had on the polls?
At the Conservatives’ nadir during Liz Truss’s cameo premiership (hang on, rewind a second! I swear that was Liz Truss! Why isn’t she in the credits?), Labour regularly had polling leads of more than 30 points.
“Sunak has closed the gap a little,” said Twyman, director of public opinion consultancy Deltapoll and former head of political and social research at YouGov. “Now the Tories are in the mid to high 20s, and the Labour share has dropped from about 55% to 50%, or just below – a margin of a bit over 20 points. So he has improved things for them, but to suggest it’s from a low base is an understatement. It’s still a huge margin.”
***
Could the gap tighten?
Because the Truss era was such a bewildering anomaly against all historical standards, the solidity of the resulting shifts in the polls are hard to assess. “When pollsters like me look at the data, we’re looking for the difference between a talking point and a turning point,” Twyman said. “That’s really, really important. The difficulty is that you rarely know you’re in a turning point at the time.”
You can see it both ways: on the one hand, Sunak has plenty of evidence for his assertion that he was never on the same side of the debate as Truss, and as inflation comes down, his own numbers might go up; on the other, voters are likely to be pretty sceptical of taking another spin at Tory roulette, and it’s much harder to rebuild a reputation than lose it.
“Truss looks like a turning point,” said Twyman. “Sunak may be a turning point in the other direction, but probably a smaller one. But if British politics has taught us anything in recent years, it’s that you simply cannot predict what’s going to happen next.”
***
How do voters rate the two parties on the economy?
There are indications that Sunak has made progress on this measure. “During the Truss month in power, the Tories were regularly at half Labour’s score on the economy,” Twyman said. “That’s now a gap that has closed. They’re still about ten points behind, but it’s an improvement.”
Indeed, one Opinium poll for the Observer last month found that while Labour still led on most issues, a Sunak government was preferred to a Starmer one on the economy by 33% to 29%. Even an outlier Tory lead on that measure in the current circumstances may suggest that on perceptions of economic competence, Labour is working against the grain.
***
How much does that matter?
A lot. “It has never, in the whole postwar period, been the case that any party has won the most seats while being behind on leadership and the economy,” Twyman said. At the moment, preference on the economy is closely related to preference overall.
But there’s a subtle question here that goes beyond the remit of most polling: how, exactly, voters construct the idea of “economic competence”. “It is a really difficult thing to tie down and it varies from individual to individual,” Twyman said.
The Conservatives’ success over the last decade has been to reinforce the idea that good stewardship of the public finances means balancing the books (and fixing the roof while the sun shines, not maxing out the credit card, filling the black hole, and other intuitive but contested metaphors).
One way forward for Labour is to tell voters that they’re just better at this stuff than the Tories; another is to reframe the question and persuade the public that public investment is the best way to restore growth.
Also, Twyman adds, “there’s an important distinction between overall economic competence and specifically the cost of living crisis.” At the moment, “the vast majority of people see the cost of living as the important issue facing both the country and themselves, with the economy (and all other things) much lower down.” That makes sense: gilt yields are likely to seem a bit irrelevant if you can’t pay your gas bill.
***
What’s Labour’s strategy?
Reeves’s speech yesterday was full of punchy lines – but they were more focused on making the government sound like bungling, venal morons than advancing a different theory of the economy. She compared the Conservatives to pickpockets and the cast of 80s soap opera Dallas; she criticised tax rises and the loss of £6.7bn to Covid fraud. She cast the Tories as the stooges of non-doms and energy giants. Mostly, she made it sound like Jeremy Hunt is crap at his job.
But she did gesture towards a more fundamental critique when she said: “No other advanced economy is cutting spending or increasing taxes on working people as they head into a recession.” The question now is which of those positions Labour makes its focus: as more reassuring narrators of the old story about the economy, or as authors of a new one.
The Guardian’s editorial today finds Labour wanting on that score: “[Hunt] knows that elections are fought not between conflicting answers to the same question, but rather between conflicting questions,” it reads. “Yet Labour is not offering any competition for people’s thinking.”
“Since the 2019 election, Labour’s position seems to have been simply to say, ‘I wouldn’t do that’,” Twyman said. “When the Conservatives are shooting themselves in the foot, that’s quite an effective strategy. If they do better, it becomes about broad narratives. The 50% of voters who are less engaged than average aren’t paying attention to the minutiae: they’re asking themselves, is it fair, is it effective, and will it do right for people like me.”
***
Read more on the autumn statement
Zoe Wood explains what the autumn statement will mean for you on everything from income tax to help with energy bills.
Heather Stewart has a useful guide to where the cuts outlined by Hunt are likely to fall, from defence to the Home Office – with health and education spending protected for now.
Local government leaders say that even the bigger council tax bills allowed by the autumn statement will not prevent more cuts to services, Patrick Butler reports. One estimate suggests that even if three-quarters of councils raise bills by the maximum allowed, there will still be a £7bn funding shortfall.
Pippa Crerar reports on a mood of resignation among Tory MPs: “In the hours after the statement, downbeat Tory MPs mostly rowed in behind the chancellor, but many felt they had little choice. ‘I suppose it could have been worse,’ was the best one could muster.”
A Guardian panel of writers, including Polly Toynbee, Miatta Fahnbulleh, and Frances Ryan, give their verdict on the government’s economic plan. “This statement was a lesson in kicking the can down the road,” writes Ryan.
Kevin Rawlinson reports on the reaction in Jeremy Hunt’s South West Surrey constituency, now a target for the Liberal Democrats. “Everyone is in crisis, [the price of] everything is going up,” says Kelly Clark. “With the country in recession, we are screwed.”
What else we’ve been reading
What’s it like to know war is about to land on your doorstep? Luke Harding offers a fascinating insight with his Long Read about the night before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – which he spent drinking port with friends in Kyiv. Toby Moses, head of newsletters
Come to the Ranked! guide to the 70 greatest No 2 singles to see where your favourites are and marvel at some of the classics that didn’t make the top. Stay for Alexis Petridis’ lovely, authoritative assessments from bottom to top. Archie
Even if you don’t recognise the name, Keith Haring’s distinctive style is instantly familiar to millions thanks to the artist’s countless commercial tie ups. Lauren Cochrane talks to the head of the charitable foundation that profits, and those that have a less … charitable view of the partners chosen. Toby
A welcome revival or simply cheap publicity for Jeff Bezos’s latest venture – whatever your view, Neighbours is coming back to TVs around the world, and Stuart Heritage hails the soap that came back from the dead. Toby
The “realist” political scientist John Mearsheimer has blamed Nato for Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. See if you’re persuaded of that view by the end of this probing interview in the New Yorker by Isaac Chotiner. Archie
Sport
World Cup | Jonathan Liew’s curtain-raiser for Qatar grapples with the discomfort – and basic irrelevance – of fans’ enthusiasm. “The very existence of this tournament is a reminder of where the power has always resided in this sport,” he writes. “You are of course welcome to turn up, tune in and enjoy. But this spectacle is not yours, and never has been.”
Cricket | A stunning century for Dawid Malan was in vain as Australia beat England in the first match of their one-day international series. Malan scored 134 as England reached 287-9, but Australia reached their target within 47 overs for the loss of four wickets.
Rugby union | Eddie Jones has recalled Billy Vunipola to England’s starting lineup for Saturday’s clash with New Zealand as one of three changes to his side. Vunipola slots in at No 8 with Sam Simmonds shifting to blindside flanker in an eye-catching change to England’s back row.
The front pages
A full guide to Friday’s newspapers is here; the usual summary follows. Reactions to Jeremy Hunt’s autumn statement dominate UK front pages, with the Guardian’s headline reading “From bad to worse”. The i splashes with “UK’s lost decade” while the Mirror’s headline simply reads “Carnage”.
The Mail turns its ire on Hunt’s budget with the headline “Tories soak the strivers”. The Telegraph too is blunt in its assessment, quoting an economist in its headline: “‘The rhetoric of Osborne… with the policies of Brown’”.
The Times writes that as the chancellor seeks to balance the books, there will be “Years of tax pain ahead”. The Financial Times carries a similar headline with “Hunt paves way for years of pain”.
Scotland’s Daily Record harks back to another era of Tory rule with the headline “You’ve never had it so bad”, while the Sun relegates the autumn statement to a small article on its front page, with the headline “Tax hell.. Thank God for the footie!”
Something for the weekend
Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read and listen to right now
Film
Aisha
Letitia Wright (above) gives a performance of intense focus, controlled anger and dignity as Aisha, a Nigerian refugee being held in a Dublin detention centre, unable to return because her father and brothers were murdered by gangsters. But she finds a miraculous connection with a new security guard there: Conor, a guy with vulnerabilities of his own – a lovely, gentle performance from Josh O’Connor. Peter Bradshaw
Music
Weyes Blood: And in the Darkness, Hearts Aglow
Whatever havoc the pandemic may have wreaked on Natalie Mering’s already gloomy outlook, it’s done nothing to spoil her melodic facility. This album gently bombards you with one fantastic tune after another: the lovely sigh of Grapevine; Twin Flame, on which her vocals soars away from the sparse synthesiser and ancient drum-machine backing, or the deceptively carefree-sounding Children of the Empire, surrounded by a complex, Brian Wilson-inspired arrangement. Alexis Petridis
Book
Friends, Lovers and the Big Terrible Thing by Matthew Perry
It would be nice to report that Perry turned his life around and engineered a happy ending for his offscreen self. In fact, the most desolate moments come when he evaluates his life now, aged 53, “sitting in a huge house, overlooking the ocean, with no one to share it with, save a sober companion, a nurse, and a gardener twice a week”. Perry can undoubtedly be a pain in the backside but he wears his big, bruised heart on his sleeve. The overwhelming sense is of a lonely, disappointed man in desperate need of a hug. Fiona Sturges
Podcast
Gloriously Unready
Counsellor Josephine Hughes found herself “gloriously unready” when both her daughters came out as transgender, unbeknown to each other. Hughes is brutally honest and endlessly wise as she tells their story, outlining the moments that many parents face with so much love and support that she can’t fail to help others in the same situation. Hannah Verdier
Today in Focus
Excitement, boycotts and rainbow protest: Qatar’s World Cup kicks off
It was the first time the World Cup had been awarded to a country in the Middle East. But in the 12 years since the announcement that Qatar would be hosting the 2022 finals, the decision has been continually questioned.
Now the tournament is about to begin, will the excitement of football’s biggest event overcome these criticisms?
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Wimbledon has agreed to relax its strict all-white dress code, and allow female players to wear coloured undershorts for the first time in its near 150-year history. The move comes after a persuasive campaign by players, activists and luminaries such as Judy Murray and Billie Jean King, who argued the outdated policy was a source of anxiety for menstruating players.
“It is our hope that this rule adjustment will help players focus purely on their performance,” All England Club chief executive Sally Bolton said in a statement.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until Monday.
