Good morning.
It’s all kicked off. After a series of false starts and swirling rumours, Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer have finally started their election campaigns, though it has felt like both parties have been unofficially campaigning for a while now. It is easy – and, let’s be honest, really fun – to focus on the embarrassing fumbles and wild speculation about what could happen, especially given Starmer’s widely expected win, but there is still much to play for.
After 14 years of Conservative rule, and five since the last election, what is at the forefront of voters’ minds, and what are the two main parties offering? In today’s newsletter, I try to answer that question with pollster Joe Twyman, the co-founder and director of the public opinion consultancy Deltapoll and former head of political and social research at YouGov. That’s right after the headlines.
Five big stories
Horizon scandal | The former Post Office boss Paula Vennells ruled out a review that would have exposed the prosecutions scandal more than 10 years ago after being told it would be “front-page news”. It emerged during a second day of Vennells’ evidence at the public inquiry into the Horizon scandal.
Taiwan | China has begun a second day of military drills targeting Taiwan, this time testing its military’s ability to “seize power”, in what it says is punishment for “separatist acts” after the inauguration of the island’s new president on Monday.
Israel-Gaza war | The international court of justice is expected to issue a new ruling on Israel’s conduct of its war in Gaza on Friday afternoon. The US has expressed concern over Israel’s growing diplomatic isolation among countries that have traditionally supported it.
Criminal justice | The Ministry of Justice’s ambition to reduce the backlog in crown courts in England and Wales to 53,000 by March next year is no longer achievable, the National Audit Office (NAO) has said. The MoJ set the target in October 2021 when the outstanding caseload was 60,000, but by the end of last year it had reached 67,573 – its highest level ever – according to an NAO report.
Environment | The head of the Environment Agency, Philip Duffy, has admitted that freedom of information requests have been buried by the regulator because the truth about the environment in England is “embarrassing”. The agency holds information including about pollution, the state of England’s waterways, the meetings its bosses have with water company CEOs, and other data about the state of nature in the country.
In depth: From the cost of living to the climate crisis, what voters really care about
The salience and importance of polls when it comes to predicting elections is contested but, when done accurately, they provide a helpful temperature check on the political and social climate. The wording of questions, the options provided to answer, even when a person is asked: all of these elements can affect the outcome of a survey. None of this makes the results of a poll necessarily right or wrong – but it is important to acknowledge the factors that could affect responses.
At Deltapoll, Twyman says they deliberately disaggregate their questions, splitting them between what respondents feel are the most important problems facing them and their family, and the country at large. They also separate the cost of living from the economy more generally. “I think the cost of living is something that the public focuses on particularly in a way that, for instance, they don’t on economic growth,” Twyman says. So what did respondents say?
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The big concerns
When it comes to issues affecting people and their families directly, the cost of living crisis tops the list of concerns by some distance, appearing in the highest bracket of Deltapoll’s tiered system. “The second tier is the NHS and the economy generally,” says Twyman. “Then the third tier is a whole bundle of issues like immigration, which is at the top of the third tier; housing; pensions; the environment and climate change; taxation; crime; and welfare and benefits.”
The “minor tiers” include Brexit, defence and security, the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, trans rights, transport, and the relationship between different ethnic groups in Britain. “This is not to say that these issues are not important to voters, it’s that they are not viewed, generally, as important as those in the higher tiers,” says Twyman. “This is not always true, but they also tend to be the sort of issues that can be particularly important to smaller groups”.
When it comes to issues facing the country, the answers remain largely the same, with some exceptions. Once again, the cost of living tops the list, and the NHS is in the second tier. This time, however, it is not alongside the economy, with respondents voting for it alone, indicating that they view it as a more pressing problem for society at large. The third tier features the economy; immigration and asylum; crime; housing; and climate change and the environment.
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The campaigns
Rishi Sunak decided, somewhat surprisingly, to focus on security and defence pretty early on in his election speech on Wednesday, referencing the conflict in Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza war as examples of the increasingly unstable era we are in. It is in keeping with his wider election strategy – a few weeks ago Sunak vowed to centre the UK’s security in his party’s campaign, saying that “the choice at the next election is: who do you trust to keep you safe?”
Twyman says that it strikes him as “an attempt to lead public opinion rather than to follow it”. The Conservative party may argue that this is a shrewd strategic decision that focuses on their strengths and draws a clear line of difference between them and Labour. The other side of that coin is that “if you’re doing badly on all of the big issues, you choose the one that you’re doing least badly on, which I’m sure in their internal polling is showing security and defence”, Twyman says, although he accepts that it may be a combination of strategy and deflecting attention from areas where the party is struggling. There is also the hope that by focusing on security, defence – and by extension the conflicts that are happening in the Middle East – the Conservatives may draw Labour out on a particular political sore point for Keir Starmer: the war in Gaza.
Labour’s election strategy can be condensed into one word: change. Their central focus will be the economy, particularly the cost of living crisis and fixing the innumerable issues plaguing the NHS. They will be trying to defend and protect their 20-point lead, which will inevitably contract to some degree over the course of this race.
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The next six weeks
With all that in mind, the next six weeks are expected to be something of a disaster for the government. On all of the main issues the Conservatives are lagging far behind Labour, and on some issues they are behind by some distance. The only exception in Deltapoll’s surveys was on the topic of protecting the UK’s history and traditions, where the Tories pulled just ahead, with 34% of respondents picking the current government and 32% picking Labour (the most common response at 35%, however, was “I don’t know”).
Deltapoll has been tracking the key question of who the public think would be best for the British economy. “The lead that Labour has is consistent and it is large,” Twyman says. “If I were a Conservative MP, the thing that would terrify me is the fact that, since June 2023, the percentage of people saying ‘Conservative’ in that question has essentially not moved at all.” It has marginally fluctuated over that time, but not in a way that is significant, despite the number of economic announcements that have been made by Sunak and chancellor Jeremy Hunt over the past year.
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The hot button issues
Not all voters prioritise the same issues – much attention has been paid to the Labour party’s response to the war in Gaza, particularly after the local elections, where it became a significant thorn in Keir Starmer’s side. Muslim voters in particular seemed frustrated at the party, but Twyman cautions against overly simplistic readings of what this could mean for Labour at the general election. “British Muslims are not all the same,” he says. “They have a range of different views just like any other group in Britain and care about many other issues as well.”
The Conservatives will probably also try to exploit “culture war” issues – be it gender identity, union jacks, protests (take your pick) – to exploit divisions within the Labour party. As many in the Conservative camp view the next six weeks as more of a long goodbye than a campaign, some MPs and ministers will see the coming month and a half as not necessarily about attempting to win the general election, but rather as a time to shore up support for the leadership race that will happen once it is over.
Sign up to Election Edition
And if you want even more on the general election, Archie will be writing a daily election briefing, Election Edition, landing in inboxes at 5pm every weekday for the length of the campaign, starting 3 June. Sign up here.
What else we’ve been reading
Everyone loved Rebecca Nicholson’s zero-star mauling of Buying London (above). Here, five of our critics look back at the worst things they’ve ever had to review. Toby Moses, head of newsletters
From Beyoncé to up and comers like Shaboozey, country music is yeehawing its way up the charts. Alexis Petridis tips a stetson to the artists changing the face of the genre, in the US and beyond. Hannah J Davies, deputy editor, newsletters
Rokhaya Diallo is fascinating on how the French #MeToo movement has hit the red carpet at Cannes, and what it has to do next if it is to truly succeed. Toby
And then I go and spoil it all by doing something stupid like … mooning to a livestream of strangers at the New York-Dublin portal. It only took a matter of days for the art installation/social experiment to devolve into chaos, but – writes Megan Nolan – for many, it has been a source of joy rather than a reason to cringe. Hannah
Screenwriter Bruce Joel Rubin speaks to Ryan Gilbey about his life in film, coming out of the closet at 81, and the secret gay moments in his biggest hit, Ghost. Toby
Sport
Cricket | Alice Capsey’s career-best 44 set England up for an unconvincing 37-run win over Pakistan in the ODI series opener at Derby.
Football | West Ham’s Lucas Paquetá has been charged by the Football Association with alleged breaches of betting regulations and faces a lengthy ban if found guilty.
Cycling | Tim Merlier triumphed in a chaotic sprint to win stage 18 of the Giro d’Italia in Padova as Tadej Pogacar remained safe in the race leader’s pink jersey. Stage three winner Merlier took the victory by half a wheel from Jonathan Milan, with both having come around Kaden Groves who had to settle for third.
The front pages
“Sunak begins election campaign by abandoning flagship policies” says the Guardian’s Friday front page. The i has “Smoking ban dropped – as snap election also stops help for renters”. “Starmer lacks the courage to debate me, says Sunak” – that’s the Daily Telegraph and the Daily Express is loving it: “Rishi lashes out! ‘Starmer hasn’t courage to face me on television’”. The Times has “Energy bills tumble in first big election battle” while the Daily Mail goes with “Tories to cut green levies on fuel bills”. Let’s balance those last few out with “Sunak makes faltering election start after Rwanda and smoking setbacks” from the Financial Times; “Rishi’s bumpy take-off”, in the Metro; and in the Daily Mirror, “Brewer’s oops” after the PM made a “footy blunder” in a Welsh pub.
Something for the weekend
Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read and listen to right now
TV
Imposter: The Man Who Came Back from the Dead
Channel 4
It has seemed lately as though true crime might have had its day. A four-part series on the subject of a US fugitive seemed, therefore, an unpromising proposition. But there is still room, it turns out, for truly extraordinary stories. This one is always fascinating and always terrifying, focusing on the story of a Glasgow Covid patient accused of being Nicholas Rossi – one of the FBI’s most wanted criminals. Lucy Mangan
Music
Paul Weller: 66
A sense of slowing down seems to have seeped into Weller’s 17th solo album. It’s everywhere, from the preponderance of sun-dappled ballads, to the affecting weariness that soaks closing track Burn Out, a song which recalls – and Weller’s more strict mod adherents may wish to look away now – Meddle-era Pink Floyd. However, he seems remarkably like an artist still in the thick of it – and springs some surprises. Alexis Petridis
Film
Hit Man
Cinemas nationwide from Friday
Richard Linklater’s thoroughly entertaining comedy thriller is loosely based on the true story of Gary Johnson, an undercover law enforcement officer in Houston, Texas who posed as a hitman. Linklater and co-writer and star Glen Powell transpose the action to New Orleans, and make their bogus assassin an earnest liberal arts professor, with Powell’s cheerfully likable performance getting us past the absurdity of the premise. A hit is what it deserves to be. Peter Bradshaw
Podcast
The Case of the Tiny Suit/Case
Widely available, episodes weekly
After their smash-hit podcast Who Shat on the Floor at My Wedding?, Helen McLaughlin, Karen Whitehouse and Lauren Kilby return with another important mystery. It is set in Sweden, where a woman finds a tiny corduroy suit hanging on her veranda. The plot thickens when a suitcase later appears, complete with skin-coloured pantyhose and some very old swimming goggles. Cue some very amateur sleuthing. Hannah Verdier
Today in Focus
What should kids be taught about sex and relationships?
The sex and relationships educator Jo Morgan discusses what she believes a sex education curriculum should look like
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
“Fate,” says Misty Moore of Oregon’s Welcome Home Animal Sanctuary, “had a different plan for Romeo.”
Romeo is a steer. He enjoys sunbathing and scratching against trees. And now, he’s also a Guinness World Record setter, having been recognised as the tallest such animal of his kind – Romeo stands at an impressive 6ft 4.5in (1.94 metres) in height.
His newfound fame is a far cry from the fate that usually befalls steers such as he, who are “often deemed as mere byproducts” of the brutal reality of dairy farm practices. Indeed, Romeo was only 10 days old when Moore and her sanctuary rescued him from slaughter – and afforded him the chance to rewrite the history books.
“It became our mission to grant him … a life filled with safety, compassion and unwavering affection,” Moore said.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until Monday.
