A Paris court has rejected a request to annul the results of New Caledonia's third independence referendum after pro-independence voters boycotted the ballot.
The Indigenous Kanak population — who are largely pro-independence — abstained from the third and potentially final referendum, in which an overwhelming majority voted to remain with France.
That is because they have been in a 12-month mourning period after the surge in COVID-19 cases in September 2021.
At the time, their community bore the brunt of the French territory's 279 COVID deaths.
Official results from the December 12 ballot revealed that although 96.5 per cent of voters rejected independence from France, only 43.9 per cent of eligible voters headed to the polls.
The boycott had an obvious impact on voter turnout when compared with previous votes. In 2018 and 2020 the participation rates were almost double, at more than 80 per cent.
Even before the results were in, pro-independence voices said they would contest the result's legitimacy and France's highest court — Le Conseil d'État — has now rejected that bid.
What did the court say?
In the ruling, handed down on June 3, the court said the Customary Senate's (Sénat Coutumier) declaration of a year of mourning "was not of a nature to affect, in itself, the sincerity of the ballot" because COVID had calmed by the time the campaign period had begun.
After an investigation, the court decision said New Caledonia experienced an epidemic peak in September 2021 with an incidence rate of 1,200 infections per 100,000 inhabitants and several hundred victims.
But, it added, "the epidemiological situation improved continuously in October and November with an incidence rate reduced to 48 per 100,000 at the beginning of December and 10 patients with COVID-19 in intensive care".
The court said the improvements in health indicators, including the likelihood that 77.7 per cent of the population was vaccinated, the health emergency that was declared on September 11 did not need to be extended beyond November 15, allowing for the campaign period to run as planned from November 29 to December 10.
"Thus, the political parties and groups authorised to participate in the official campaign … were able to hold public meetings throughout the country, access the public radio and television service, send circulars [letters] to voters, and put up posters on electoral boards."
"Finally, a joint circular from the Minister of the Interior and the Minister of Overseas Territories, dated November 15, 2021, gave strict instructions to guarantee the safety of voters during the voting process."
France does not have mandatory voting, and therefore there is no minimum participation rate needed for results to be verified.
Independence votes took place in 2018, 2020 and in 2021 because of a 30-year peace deal called the Nouméa Accords, signed and voted into law in 1998 and set to end after the final referendum.
It states that New Caledonians can have up to three chances to cut ties with France, as long as a third of Congress agrees with that decision.
The ABC has reached out to the Customary Senate for comment.
Independence push unlikely to end despite result
Mathias Chauchat, a professor of public law at the University of New Caledonia, told the ABC the decision was expected and there was no chance of appeal.
"There is a form of humiliation that will reinforce the accusations of arrogance of the French state towards the Indigenous population," he said.
"It is now clear that the French state does not want to decolonise and that it will not keep its promises in the Nouméa Accord.
Professor Chauchat said the Indigenous Kanak population would continue to demand independence and that the three failed pushes "change nothing".
He expected a reaction to that from France.
"France will try to open up the electorate to French immigrants in order to drown out the Kanak demand with numbers," he said.
"France continues to push for a French settlement policy in New Caledonia in order to retain sovereignty over the country.
"This opening of the electorate is incompatible with civil peace in New Caledonia."
A team from the French Senate is set to visit New Caledonia at the end of June.
"This will be the occasion for initial discussions," Professor Chauchat said.