France's Constitutional Council will on Friday rule on the legality of President Emmanuel Macron's deeply unpopular pensions overhaul. Police have errected anti-riot barriers and have banned demonstrations around the seat of the council in central Paris until Saturday morning. Two decisions are to announced by the end of the day.
First, the nine-member council is to decide whether the legislation on pensions reform is in line with the constitution.
Second, the council will consider two separate requests from the left-wing political opposition on the organisation of a referendum on an alternative law limiting the retirement age to 62.
An announcement is expected around 6pm.
The French daily papers are filled with speculation.
Most expert analysts suggest the Constitutional Council will scrap some details of the law, but will probably throw its weight behind the most important and most controversial elements, including pushing to 64 the minimum legal age for retirement.
Left-leaning Libération says the council decision is supposed to be based on a neutral analysis of the law, without any political bias or personal preference.
In fact, says Libé, bias and preference are inevitable, especially given the enormous political consequences the council's decision will have.
If they decide to find fault with the government, the political landscape will be profoundly shaken; if they give the legislation the green light, that will add to the frustrations and bitterness of those who oppose the reforms.
Jean Maiä, the council's sectretary-general, normally available to answer even the most stupid of journalistic questions, is in airplane mode.
Times are tense.
Damned if you do . . .
Whatever decision is announced, the Constitutional Council is going to be viciously criticised, says former Justice Minister Jean-Jacques Urvoas.
And the decision won't bring the crisis to an end, one way or the other.
Macron has accepted that public debate on the reform will continue.
Sophie Binet, leader of the CGT union group, says the legislation will emerge "damaged" from the council deliberations. The final law will be "stained by a series of judicial, democratic and social failures," she says, calling on Macron to face the consequences.
Binet also warns that the union movement remains united and determined, and "will react unanimously".
CFDT union leader Laurent Berger has said that if the bill is only partially approved, it should be re-examined in parliament.
Senior ruling party MP Eric Woerth said that he expected "the core part" of the law to be approved but he conceded that the government had failed to convince people.
"Once the volcano has cooled down and people look at things with a bit more distance, perhaps in the back of their minds they'll say, 'maybe they were right'. The French pension system needed unpopular decisions to conserve it."
Towards a referendum?
As well as ruling on whether the pensions legislation and the way it was passed are in line with the constitution, the council must also decide on whether to approve an opposition demand for a referendum on an alternative pensions law.
The path to such a referendum would be long and uncertain.
The opposition would need to collect 4.8 million signatures from voters backing their proposal within nine months.
And a referendum could take place only if both chambers of parliament refused to examine the bill in the next six months.
