SAN DIEGO — Leave it to A.J. Preller to strike first.
Thought to have priced himself out of the Padres' market, Robert Suarez celebrated his breakout season in San Diego with a five-year, $46 million pact in the first hour of free agency Thursday afternoon. The Padres were also said to be still in talks with Nick Martinez, whose opt-out ahead of Thursday's deadline was more procedural than a signal that the two sides were indeed parting ways on the heels of the right-hander's breakout in a multi-role job in 2022.
Martinez would like to start and that's certainly one need the Padres will have to address as they wade into the open market. Of course, Martinez was even more effective out of the bullpen, another box to check on Preller's to-do list as he looks to shore up both ends of the pitching staff. Just as crucial is his search for bats to plug into the 2023 lineup, an endeavor that might depend on just where Fernando Tatis Jr. returns to action.
The hot stove season is upon us.
Because we're talking about Preller, anything and everything is on the table this offseason, but this is what we think we know about how the Padres could address their needs in free agency in the coming months:
Starting pitching
With MacKenzie Gore traded away in the Juan Soto deal and Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea departing as free agents, starting pitching depth is the No. 1 priority.
While the Padres are expected to continue spending at or slightly above current levels, the number of holes they need to fill will make it difficult for Preller to be a major player at the top of the market (Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Tyler Anderson or Chris Bassitt). Their recent track record in the Pacific Rim suggests they'll be heavily involved in the Kodai Senga derby, but a number of arms in the second and third tiers could fit nicely behind Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove (think Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney or one-time Padres farmhand Corey Kluber in the twilight of his career).
A reunion with Martinez would also go a long way toward bolstering the rotation's depth.
Because they need numbers to bring to camp alongside youngsters Adrián Morejón, Jay Groome, Ryan Weathers and Reiss Knehr, someone like a 29-year-old Joe Ross — also a former Padres farmhand — could be a candidate for an incentive-laden, backloaded deal as the Padres look to get creative in bolstering the depth traded away over the last several seasons. Ross is coming off a second Tommy John surgery like Clevinger was when he signed a two-year, $11.5 million deal before the 2021 season, although Ross is several months ahead of where Clevinger was at the onset of his contract.
— Other names to know: Carlos Rodon, Jose Quintana, Martin Perez, Taijuan Walker, Johnny Cueto, Kyle Gibson, Zack Greinke, Noah Syndergaard, Rich Hill, Zach Eflin, Michael Wacha, Drew Smyly, Michael Lorenzen.
Outfield/first base
Speaking of former Padres, Anthony Rizzo opting out of the Bronx would be especially intriguing if the Yankees hadn't made him a $19.65 million qualifying offer, attaching precious draft-pick compensation to the 33-year-old first baseman after his 32-homer season in 2022.
The aging Jose Abreu, 35, might give up some dollars for extra years in a deal after a downturn in 2022 (15 HRs, .824 OPS), but he's likely more of a DH with the Padres, who have grown quite fond of four-shortstop defense and will be adding Tatis back to the mix in April.
Because Tatis could wind up playing both at shortstop and in the outfield, it would make sense to add versatility to the first base/outfield/DH rotation that jettisoned Jurickson Profar, Josh Bell, Brandon Druryand Wil Myers this month. In addition to Drury and Myers (and Profar once upon a time), Trey Mancini and Joey Gallo — whom Preller has been tied to at various times over the years — are intriguing bats who could provide some multi-positional flexibility.
While Brandon Nimmo is the top available outfielder, another former Met might make more sense in San Diego: Michael Conforto, who missed all of 2022 because, first, teams shied away because of a qualifying offer attached to his free agency and then he opted for season-ending shoulder surgery.
Both Conforto and the Padres could make the most of a short-term deal with an incentive-based opt-out after the 2023 season.
— Other names to know: Andrew Benintendi, Joc Pederson, Matt Carpenter, David Peralta, Josh Harrison, Michael Brantley, J.D. Martinez, Mitch Haniger, Adam Duvall, A.J. Pollock, Carlos Santana, Brandon Belt, Corey Dickerson, Andrew McCutchen.
Relievers
With some $24 million already tied up in Josh Hader and Drew Pomeranz alone, the Padres made the first big move of free agency when they locked up Suarez to a five-year, $46 million deal on Thursday evening. That ought to leave them shopping in bargain bins — rather than adding someone like Rafael Montero after his star turn during the Astros' playoff run — to fill the spots vacated by Martinez, Pierce Johnson and Craig Stammen or outright pushing for the likes of minor leaguers Jose Castillo, Ray Kerr and Tom Cosgroveto win jobs next spring the way Steven Wilson did in 2022.
While Johnson may be unlikely to return, deals like the two-year, $4 million pact that brought him home from Japan in 2020 or the two-year, $7 million deal that brought Luis Garcia to San Diego last year is likely the relief tier that the Padres will work in the rest of the offseason.
— Other names to know: Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, Matt Moore, Adam Ottavino, Taylor Rogers, Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Chafin, Michael Fulmer, Jesse Chavez, David Phelps, David Robertson, Brad Boxberger and Matt Strahm (and too, too many more to list).
