The kicking duel is going to be pivotal at Twickenham on Saturday. South Africa have said they’ve been expecting it all along and it’s what they’re going to get. Over to England – don’t disappoint. It might not be as aesthetically pleasing, maybe the impetus to win becomes greater as a result, but the thinking is obvious if you cast back to last year’s World Cup semi-final.
I understand the selection of Freddie Steward, that Steve Borthwick genuinely believes selecting someone who is 6ft 5in and whose point of difference is his aerial strength gives England the best chance of beating South Africa. I also understand that World Rugby’s clampdown on escorts is increasing the number of contestable kicks and is having an impact on these autumn Tests. I also have a feeling that England are using the latter to almost excuse the former. In the 2023 Six Nations, England averaged 40 kicks again, which was the most of all countries. Earlier this year it was 30, the same as in New Zealand over the summer, but the point here is that England kick a lot and have done for a while. A directive that encourages kicking would appear to suit them yet they seem to be outwardly disappointed about it, perhaps in the knowledge that adopting that sort of style will not be universally well received.
Steward’s role is just as important in attack as it is defence. It can give England a greater sense of security, they can be really efficient, it enables them to be clean to clear their lines. In attack, the most significant factor for me is, what do England do if they win the ball back? Are they going to be good enough on transition?
I look at the impact that Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii had for Australia last week, particularly from kick-offs. But that was nothing new. At Harlequins I remember when we changed the way that we kicked off. I did a lot of work with Nick Evans and we would kick everything to compete and get the ball back and we enjoyed a good degree of success with it. We would get the ball on the 22 or the 10-metre line, we had broken-field play and would capitalise on it.
I don’t want to see England winning the ball back from contestable kicks and then kicking again. I want to see them building on and developing their attacking execution, which we saw in patches against Australia last week.
For South Africa, the World Rugby clampdown doesn’t change much. They have been kicking with real purpose since before their 2019 World Cup triumph. They will have less protection when catching kicks but they will have a greater ability to win the ball back when they go to the skies.
Personally, I am in favour of it. One of the founding pillars of our game is that everything should be a fair and equal contest and that was previously being taken away. Kicks were going up but there would be banks of four or five players protecting the receiver and it just wasn’t a contest. It was almost like the NFL. The consequence may be that we see more knock-ons, that we see more unstructured rugby, that we see more scrums, but I suspect South Africa will be OK with that. Inevitably, every coach’s opinion is guided by what the implications of law amendments are to their team.
If we go back to last year’s World Cup semi-final, England were able to shock South Africa with their approach, with their physicality above anything else. They’re not going to do that on Saturday. England’s selection is crystal clear. I’m actually more surprised by South Africa’s selection, in particular with Manie Libbok at fly-half. The decision to hand Libbok the No 10 jersey feels like an emotional decision, a shot at redemption after he was hooked after half an hour in the World Cup semi-final. It is Rassie Erasmus saying “I believe in you, I trust you”. No one knows the England players better than Handré Pollard. No one knows Steward’s strengths and weaknesses better than Pollard. Having said that, I will defer to Erasmus. He is happy to roll the dice. I’d love to go to the casino with him. I would just place my chips where he does.
He is a genius when it comes to coaching. He engenders so much belief, so much unity, so much competition between the No 1 in their position and the No 2. From the outside you might look at their fly-half pecking order and say Pollard is well ahead but clearly not.
I would rank South Africa in their current guise alongside the 2015 All Blacks as the two most complete sides our game has ever seen. What puts them at that level is their world-class basics. Their scrum, lineout, kick chase and defence are all world class and, if that is the case, then you’re always going to have a good chance.
Scotland will have been left scratching their heads last week, unsure at how they’ve lost that game by such a margin, how they’ve shipped four tries and scored none. That is how the best teams in the world can make you feel and that is the challenge awaiting England on Saturday. It’s a genuinely great rivalry. It’s always going to be big when the world champs are in town, but the needle and the animosity makes it supercharged.
