France is expected to formally announce within days a phased withdrawal of its military forces in Mali after almost a decade, following months of diplomatic crisis between the two countries.
The departure will mark an end to a fraught nine-year mission in Mali that French governments have argued is integral to regional security as well as preventing jihadist threats in Europe.
Yet over the course of the mission, popular support in the Sahel for the withdrawal of France’s Barkhane military force, alongside smaller deployments from other countries, has gradually grown and the planned scaling down of France’s 5,000-troop presence in the region, about half of which is in Mali, had already been announced last year.
Relations between France and Mali’s military leaders, aiming for a reset in ties with the former colonial ruler, have also suffered a bitter breakdown.
France’s foreign minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, on Monday signalled that a total withdrawal of troops from Mali was forthcoming. “If the conditions are no longer in place for us to be able to act in Mali, which is clearly the case, we will continue to fight terrorism side by side with Sahel countries who want it,” he said. The formal announcement is expected at a two-day EU and African Union summit in Brussels beginning on Thursday.
A French withdrawal could trigger the further departure of European military forces which make up the “Takuba taskforce”, according to documents seen by Reuters, suggesting France would “commence the coordinated withdrawal of their military resources from Malian territory”.
A European diplomat also told the news agency it was “no longer a question of if they leave, but what happens with the troops, what happens to the UN peacekeeping force and what happens to the European Union missions”.
Successive coups in Mali, first in 2020 when President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta was deposed, and again last year when the interim government was taken over, have upended historically close ties between successive Malian governments and France.
The military regime of Colonel Assimi Goïta, who led both coups, has been subject to sanctions by regional west African leaders and the EU, drawing widespread criticisms for failing to agree a quick transition to democratic rule. The military rulers have said they plans to return power to a civilian government by 2026.
The growing presence of Russian mercenary forces belonging to the Wagner Group have also fuelled tensions with France.
In Mali, as well as Burkina Faso and Niger, popular resistance to the presence of French forces have led to significant anti-French protests, drawing several thousand in the Malian capital, Bamako.
While France’s military has played a significant role in the counter-terrorism effort in the region, including training and supporting Malian forces, alleged abuses by French troops have sparked anger.
An airstrike on Bounti Village by French forces in January 2021 killed 19 people and three armed men at a wedding, according to the UN and local community groups. Yet France have disputed the findings, insisting that it targeted terrorists.
According to Nathaniel Powell, an analyst at Oxford Analytica, France’s military mission in the Sahel has had mixed results and its wider defence goals have suffered.
“France’s overall security policy in the Sahel has been a massive failure and Barkhane is one the reasons for that. There have been tactical successes but [an] overall failure of foreign policy,” he said.
Support for unpopular governments in Mali and the west African region, some of which have suffered military coups in recent years, have further undermined efforts to improve security and stability, he added, while French opposition to any negotiations between governments and the jihadist groups, has also fuelled popular upset at France.
“Even if the negotiations don’t have a significant chance of success, it sent the message that France was an obstacle to resolving this and the sense that France is restricting governments from doing what they want to do.”
Last year, President Emmanuel Macron reiterated that negotiations with terror groups, to end the crisis, would not be countenanced by France. “We cannot carry out joint operations with powers that decide to discuss with groups that, at the same time, shoot at our children. No dialogue and no compromise,” he said last June. Yet support for negotiations among some regional governments has persisted.
A condition for negotiation by JNIM, a network of terrorist groups in the region, has been the removal of foreign forces. The possible exit of French forces may provide a greater opportunity for negotiations to take place.
Yet according to a diplomat in the region, France is not likely to immediately withdraw its forces from Mali, giving time for diplomatic tensions between the two countries to ease. “You might see a situation in a few months time, when things may have calmed down, that France feels it can slow down this withdrawal if things get better.”
