And so the Six Nations has the last tango it wanted. A packed Stade de France and a primetime television audience, a grand slam up for grabs and enough pre-match talking points to wallpaper the Louvre. Can France be stopped? Are England capable of being party-poopers? Is there any chance of Ireland sneaking up on the blindside? Regardless of the answers, “Super Saturday” will be lively.
On the evidence of the penultimate weekend’s three games, France should be feeling quietly confident as they eye a first grand slam for 12 years.
No one could accuse them of playing the house down in Cardiff on Friday night but their Shaun Edwards-marshalled defence remained firm enough to deliver a fourth win in four championship games. The tournament’s most improved defence versus a hitherto blunt-edged England attack? A mass outbreak of Covid or a fistful of red cards aside, a home win looks the likelier outcome.
There is, though, one key element no side in the competition has completely mastered as yet. How many teams, when the pressure of favouritism has materialised, have risen emphatically to it? Not Scotland, who lost in Cardiff when everyone expected them to win? Not France in Cardiff. And not Ireland, either, despite the late couple of tries that massaged the 32-15 Twickenham scoreline on Saturday.
Had Ireland, as also happened against Italy, retained their poise more consistently and not endured such a horror show at the scrums, the admirable spirit in adversity shown by England’s forwards would have sustained them for only so long. The psychology of it all is fascinating: not for the first time a side reduced to 14 men redoubled their efforts and made life awkward for a side that theoretically held all the aces.
Which is why all and sundry need to pause and await the acid test of a full-on Parisian finale before arriving at a verdict on Eddie Jones’s continuing stewardship. We will never know what would have unfolded had Charlie Ewels stayed on the field – or James Ryan for that matter – but, equally, the lock’s second-minute red card made it impossible to reach any hard and fast conclusions.
15 H Keenan Ireland
14 A Capuozzo Italy
13 C Harris Scotland
12 J Danty France
11 J Lowe Ireland
10 D Biggar Wales
9 J Gibson-Park Ireland
1 E Genge England
2 J Marchand France
3 T Francis Wales
4 M Itoje England
5 W Rowlands Wales
6 C Lawes England
7 J van der Flier Ireland
8 T Faletau Wales
That is not to say England’s attack is anywhere remotely close to where it needs to be. Take out the Italy game and the ledger shows a paltry two tries in three games, one donated by Wales via a lineout malfunction and the other via a little Murrayfield magic from Marcus Smith.
There is a continuing absence of top-level pace and, at times, much real shape behind the scrum.
The selectorial stubbornness of past seasons is also coming home to roost in some positions and another bottom-half finish to a Six Nations – potentially their third under Jones in five years – would be unacceptable for a side with England’s pretensions. All that said, those actually on the field deserve genuine respect for the spirit, determination and defiance which inspired one of the noisier occasions Twickenham has hosted in a while.
Maro Itoje, Ellis Genge, Jamie George, Courtney Lawes, Sam Simmonds and Jack Nowell displayed such staggering commitment that France, whose lineout stuttered in Cardiff, will need to be far more consistently dynamic than they were against Wales. The other undisputed area of English excellence was their kick chase: France’s Melvyn Jaminet may be a superb goal-kicker and runner but, as Dan Biggar demonstrated, he can be fallible beneath the high ball. Do not be surprised if Ben Youngs is once again recalled.
There is a bigger picture, though, which will swiftly unveil itself to every England player when they embark a few days early to France this week as part of their forward planning for next year’s Rugby World Cup. Pick up a copy of L’Équipe with their morning coffee in the Parisian suburbs and the rising sense of French expectation will be unmissable, lacking only the final dessert spoon of crème anglaise on top.
Under Fabien Galthié, Raphaël Ibañez and Edwards, Les Bleus have also visibly kicked on in the past two years in a way England simply have not. For Genge read Cyril Baille, for George read Julien Marchand, for Itoje read Cameron Woki. And if Grégory Alldritt and Antoine Dupont looked relatively mortal in Cardiff, the possibility of a grand slam in Paris will surely rejuvenate them.
Jones’s counter-thrust is that his reshuffled England squad will also be peaking in 18 months’ time but endless promises of la confiture demain will sound even hollower if his side come to a sticky end on Saturday. While the Rugby Football Union is loth to jettison Jones now, not least because of the expense and the shortage of available replacements, there is no question that a grim night in Paris would intensify the scrutiny on certain aspects of his tenure.
Wales and Ireland, by contrast, have shared three of the last four titles and the Irish last finished in the bottom half of a Six Nations in 2013. A final weekend victory in Dublin combined with a French loss in Paris could yet yield a fourth title in nine years, assuming they tighten up their basics, reduce their penalty count and stop trying to throw miracle offloads whenever they make a half break.
It is also necessary to go back to 2010 to find Scotland’s most recent win in Dublin, which just happened to be the same year France last claimed the Six Nations title. On that occasion they sneaked home 12-10 against England in the concluding game thanks to three penalties from Morgan Parra and a drop goal from François Trinh-Duc, with Ben Foden contributing the game’s only try on a damp evening. This time around the weather is set fair and the stage is perfectly set. Are France the real deal? We are about to find out.
