The latest official data shows an upsurge in Covid-19 infections and hospitalisations in France – at a time when the country's hospitals are already struggling to deal with flu and bronchiolitis epidemics.
An average of 40,000 people per day tested positive over the last week – an increase of 165 percent on the previous week, according to data published by France's public health agency (SPF) on 27 November.
More than 1,000 people are currently in intensive care with Covid-related diseases.
The reproduction rate – the number of people contaminated by each Covid sufferer – is 1.19, compared to 0.91 the previous week.
"We're heading into a ninth wave," Professor Yves Buisson told French public radio on Monday.
The number of Covid-related deaths, however, has gone down to 351 – a drop of six percent.
The figures are similar to this time last year when there were also around 40,000 daily infections, and which reached a peak in January and February 2022 of close to 600,000 per day.
The return of the mask?
The difference this year is that France's healthcare system is already under severe strain as hospitals struggle to deal with outbreaks of bronchiolitis and flu.
“It’s unusual," infectologist Dr Benjamin Davido told France 24. “We have this triple epidemic with bronchiolitis and flu."
While bronchiolitis and flu regularly peak at this time of year, last year the conjunction of the three was "delayed, because we wore masks".
The Paris metro continues to broadcast recommendations to wear masks when travelling and there are public health warnings about the benefits of vulnerable people wearing masks, but it's no longer obligatory for anyone in France to do so.
Some health professionals are calling for masks to return, especially in enclosed public spaces where physical distancing is complicated.
"Closed spaces carry the biggest risks of getting contaminated," Jérôme Marty, president of a French doctors' union, told RFI.
"You have a duty to wear masks to protect others," he says, "because let's remember that in more than 50 percent of cases this disease is totally asymptomatic, so you're not aware you're carrying it and can pass it on."
Late with vaccination
High levels of vaccination, particularly among the most vulnerable, provides the other lever in keeping the ninth wave under wraps.
"Since September, a second generation of vaccines – active against both the old strain and Omicron sub-variants – are available," says Professor Bruno Mégarbane, head of intensive care at Lariboisière hospital in Paris.
"Unfortunately, people are probably too late in getting vaccinated to be able to confront this 9th wave," he told RFI, regretting that those most at risk have fallen behind with their booster jabs.
"We estimate that around 30 percent of the over 60s have received a booster in the last six months and only 12 percent of the over 80s in the last three months."
He fears those vulnerable people risk developing serious forms of the disease, requiring extra oxygen and therefore hospitalisation.
Living with Covid
As Covid enters its third year, some wonder why the virus has not been eradicated.
Sars-Cov-2 is a zoonosis – a virus with both a human and animal reservoir – and is therefore "complicated to eradicate" Mégarbane explains. "It would need eliminating from all animal species and there are many".
"It's highly likely that like its cousins, which are responsible for the common cold, coronavirus will settle in for a long period."
Mégarbane hopes the virus' virulence will weaken over time.
"But so far, unfortunately, it has remained virulent, notably among those most at risk, [which is why] they should have regular boosters."
